Study Says Crash Tests Predict Driver Fatality Risk in Cars, But Not in Trucks

Dec 10, 2007

Frontal crash tests in laboratories are strong predictors of passenger cars' safety on the road, though they fail to accurately project driver fatality risks for trucks, according to a recent Virginia Commonwealth University study.

The study examined the frontal crash test ratings that vehicles received from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, NHTSA, and compared them to fatality rates in the vehicles. It also compared a smaller sample of test ratings given by the privately funded Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, IIHS, which uses a 40-percent frontal offset crash test, with the vehicles' fatality rates.

The results indicate that the crash tests held by NHTSA and the IIHS are successful in predicting real-world crash outcomes for passenger cars -- the ratings NHTSA and IIHS bestowed on passenger cars generally matched the cars' safety record on the road. However, the ratings for trucks did not match real-world outcomes. For example, in the case of both NHTSA and IIHS, trucks that received the worst possible crash-test rating had on average lower driver fatality rates than trucks that received the best possible crash-test rating.

"If you're thinking about buying a passenger car, then the crash test scores can be useful to you," said study co-author David Harless, professor of economics in the VCU School of Business. "But if you are thinking of buying a truck, we have no evidence that the tests are meaningful in terms of real-world performance in serious crashes."

The study was published in the September issue of Accident Analysis & Prevention.

Harless and co-author George Hoffer, professor of economics at VCU, limited their research to instances of multiple crash tests in a given vehicle line, controlling for the differences in driver behavior in different lines of vehicles. The study examined the testing of vehicles in the 1987-2001 model years. IIHS had fewer vehicle lines to review, because it did not begin its testing program until 1995. The study authors urged caution concerning their findings regarding the IIHS tests, particularly for trucks, because of the small sample of vehicle lines they were able to include in their research.

Hoffer said questions have persisted over the years about the value of NHTSA's frontal crash test ratings because of the difficulty of simulating a real-world crash in a laboratory. A tiny percentage of automobile accidents mirror the circumstances of a direct head-to-head collision between vehicles of similar size – the scenario NHTSA creates in its lab tests.

However, Hoffer said, "it turns out that the government does as good a job as the private sector does at predicting the relative death rate for passenger cars. The tests can be seen as complimentary of each other, though they are quite different."

Source: Virginia Commonwealth University

Explore further: Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight, but can we really predict the end of the world?

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Obama recommends extended wilderness zone in Alaska

28 minutes ago

US President Barack Obama said Sunday he would recommend a large swath of Alaska be designated as wilderness, the highest level of federal protection, in a move likely to anger oil proponents.

NASA craft set to beam home close-ups of Pluto

28 minutes ago

Nine years after leaving Earth, the New Horizons spacecraft is at last drawing close to Pluto and on Sunday was expected to start shooting photographs of the dwarf planet.

Navy wants to increase use of sonar-emitting buoys

2 hours ago

The U.S. Navy is seeking permits to expand sonar and other training exercises off the Pacific Coast, a proposal raising concerns from animal advocates who say that more sonar-emitting buoys would harm whales and other creatures ...

Uganda seizes massive ivory and pangolin haul

2 hours ago

Ugandan wildlife officers have seized a huge haul of elephant ivory and pangolin scales, representing the deaths of hundreds of endangered animals, police said Sunday.

Recommended for you

Toward a scientific process freed from systemic bias

5 hours ago

Research on how science works - the science of science - can benefit from studying the digital traces generated during the research process, such as peer-reviewed publications. This type of research is crucial for the future ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.