Survey: Few Floridians think their house values will dip in five years

Aug 08, 2007

Floridians are optimistic about housing prices despite the gloom pervading much of the real estate industry, a new University of Florida survey finds.

Only 5 percent of 287 Florida homeowners said they think their house values will fall during the next five years, according to the survey, which was conducted in July by UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Eighty-two percent expected the value of their houses to rise, and 13 percent said they would remain the same. The median respondent expected a gain of 18 percent, or a little more than 3 percent a year.

UF economists said they were not surprised by the results.

“The last time housing prices fell and didn’t recover within five years was during the Great Depression,” said Jonathan Hamilton, a UF economics professor and chairman of the economics department. “Most of the problem in Florida right now is that we’ve had a huge amount of building and lots of speculative buying, and things are now catching up.”

Although there is a large inventory of condominiums for sale statewide, many of these units are likely to be sold and occupied within the next few years, he said.

Florida’s draw as a retirement destination as the baby boomers age is another factor that bodes well for the state, said David Denslow, a UF economics professor who led the research. “As these baby boomers flood into Florida, they will be pushing housing prices up,” he said.

The questions were asked as part of the bureau’s monthly consumer confidence telephone survey. The responses about housing price expectations did not vary significantly by age, race, gender, region within the state or current house value, Denslow said.

“This surprised me a little bit because we expect people to be more pessimistic where there is a huge glut on the market such as the Tampa Bay or the Orlando area,” he said. “The people who do distressed house sales, the Web sites where they say they’ll buy your house for only 80 percent of its value, they love Orlando right now.”

The housing market is in a period of correction after the dramatic appreciation in real estate values nationally and particularly in Florida since 2000, Denslow said. In most Florida markets the median price of existing homes is declining, he said.

“Although these declines are temporary, there will be at least some Florida markets where house price appreciation will be very low over the next five years,” he said. “My guess would be that you’ll see low house price appreciation in the Tampa Bay, Orlando and Miami area simply because of the number of existing units on the market.”

In contrast, large price reductions are unlikely in Gainesville or Tallahassee where the housing boom has not been nearly as dramatic, Denslow said. “And similarly, I don’t think that Jacksonville is going to be hurt as badly as Fort Myers or Naples or the Fort Pierce area,” he said.

The survey’s error rate was 4 percent.

Source: UF

Explore further: Color and texture matter most when it comes to tomatoes

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Captive whooping cranes released into the wild

Sep 24, 2014

Four whooping crane chicks raised in captivity began their integration into the wild Saturday as part of the continuing effort to increase the wild population of this endangered species.

Getting to the root of the problem in space

Sep 23, 2014

When we go to Mars, will astronauts be able to grow enough food there to maintain a healthy diet? Will they be able to produce food in NASA's Orion spacecraft on the year-long trip to Mars? How about growing ...

Water in the Netherlands–past, present, and future

Aug 21, 2014

The storm in the Netherlands began on a Saturday afternoon in February 1953. Ria Geluk, who was 6 years old, told me that it peaked during the night when nationwide communications were on their nightly pause. ...

Recommended for you

Color and texture matter most when it comes to tomatoes

22 hours ago

A new study in the Journal of Food Science, published by the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT), evaluated consumers' choice in fresh tomato selection and revealed which characteristics make the red fruit most appealing.

How the lotus got its own administration

Oct 21, 2014

Actually the lotus is a very ordinary plant. Nevertheless, during the Qing dynasty (1644-1911) a complex bureaucratic structure was built up around this plant. The lotus was part of the Imperial Household, ...

What labels on textiles can tell us about society

Oct 21, 2014

Throughout Chinese history, dynastic states used labels on textiles to spread information on the maker, the commissioner, the owner or the date and site of production. Silks produced in state-owned manufacture ...

US company sells out of Ebola toys

Oct 17, 2014

They might look tasteless, but satisfied customers dub them cute and adorable. Ebola-themed toys have proved such a hit that one US-based company has sold out.

User comments : 0