Predicting the evolution of a pandemic

The inclusion of biological uncertainty and the latest case data can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of standard epidemiological models of virus transmission, new research led by KAUST and the Kuwait College ...

Stanford model accounts for behavioral changes during epidemics

The morning news reports a rise in coronavirus infections in your area. Taking in this information, you decide to skip your daily coffee run or put off your grocery trip for another week. Although many of us have probably ...

Are two phases of quarantine better than one?

New research into this question shows that the second wave of an epidemic is very different if a population has a homogenous distribution of contacts, compared to the scenario of subpopulations with diverse number of contacts.

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In epidemiology, an epidemic (from Greek epi- upon + demos people) occurs when new cases of a certain disease, in a given human population, and during a given period, substantially exceed what is "expected," based on recent experience (the number of new cases in the population during a specified period of time is called the "incidence rate"). (An epizootic is the analogous circumstance within an animal population.) In recent usages, the disease is not required to be communicable; examples include cancer or heart disease.

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