Extreme event statistics is a class of quantitative techniques focused on modeling the probability, frequency, and magnitude of rare, high-impact events using formal frameworks such as extreme value theory (EVT) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis. It typically involves fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) to the tails of empirical data, estimating return levels and return periods, and quantifying tail dependence in multivariate settings. These methods are crucial in disciplines where risk is dominated by low-probability extremes, enabling rigorous extrapolation beyond observed ranges and uncertainty quantification for tail-related parameters.
How much will heat, flooding, drought and storms increase as a result of human-induced climate change? In a groundbreaking study, climate researcher Gottfried Kirchengast and his team at the University of Graz have developed ...
Earth Sciences
Mar 1, 2026
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Japan is an archipelago with diverse climate zones and complex topography that is prone to heavy rain and flooding. Add the growing effects of global warming. These disaster risks are heightened with an increased frequency ...
Earth Sciences
Feb 27, 2026
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Economic models used by governments, central banks and investors are increasingly understating physical climate risk because they rely on assumptions that break down as the world moves toward higher levels of warming, according ...
Environment
Feb 5, 2026
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18
A new study of climate extremes since 1988 finds that many regions have seen increases in deaths due to floods, storms and extreme temperatures. In human terms, the harm comes not just from deaths, but also from lost labor ...
Physicists have long believed that black holes explode at the end of their lives, and that such explosions happen—at most—only once every 100,000 years. But new research published in Physical Review Letters by physicists ...
Astronomy
Sep 10, 2025
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So-called "100-year weather events" now seem almost commonplace as floods, storms and fires continue to set new standards for largest, strongest and most destructive. But to categorize weather as a true 100-year event, there ...
Earth Sciences
Aug 25, 2025
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373
Our ability to predict extreme weather from thunderstorms, like the recent catastrophic flash floods in Texas, is unsettlingly poor, even in the hours leading up to the event. Improvements in understanding, detecting and ...
Earth Sciences
Aug 9, 2025
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51
Extreme heat events increasingly pose significant global health risks, especially in vulnerable and under-resourced regions. By investigating the differences in these events since 1990, researchers have proposed targeted ...
Environment
Jul 21, 2025
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When an extreme weather event occurs, the probability or risk of other events can often increase, leading to what researchers call "cascading" hazards.
Earth Sciences
Jun 26, 2025
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43
On Jan. 5, 2025, at about 2:35 in the afternoon, the first severe hailstorm of the season dropped quarter-size hail in Chatham, Mississippi. According to the federal storm events database, there were no injuries, but it caused ...
Environment
Jun 4, 2025
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