Extreme event statistics is a class of quantitative techniques focused on modeling the probability, frequency, and magnitude of rare, high-impact events using formal frameworks such as extreme value theory (EVT) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis. It typically involves fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) to the tails of empirical data, estimating return levels and return periods, and quantifying tail dependence in multivariate settings. These methods are crucial in disciplines where risk is dominated by low-probability extremes, enabling rigorous extrapolation beyond observed ranges and uncertainty quantification for tail-related parameters.
When an extreme weather event occurs, the probability or risk of other events can often increase, leading to what researchers call "cascading" hazards.
Earth Sciences
Jun 26, 2025
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On Jan. 5, 2025, at about 2:35 in the afternoon, the first severe hailstorm of the season dropped quarter-size hail in Chatham, Mississippi. According to the federal storm events database, there were no injuries, but it caused ...
Environment
Jun 4, 2025
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With millions of dollars at stake across tournaments and more than 45 million regular annual participants, bowling continues to reign as a top sport in the U.S. A unified model that predicts how a bowling ball behaves down ...
General Physics
Apr 15, 2025
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Helping communities predict extreme weather events that have never been recorded in modern history is the focus of a new paper published in Nature Communications.
Environment
Mar 18, 2025
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An extraordinary jump in ocean temperatures in 2023 and 2024 was at the extreme end of expectations from global warming and would have been "practically impossible" without climate change, new research said Wednesday.
Earth Sciences
Mar 12, 2025
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In 1960, Lewis Fry Richardson famously observed that the severity of a wartime event is described by a simple power law distribution that scales according to the size of the conflict. Statisticians have since proposed various ...
General Physics
Mar 21, 2024
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