Statistically 'Proven'! Germany Will Be Next Soccer World Champion

February 22, 2006
World Champion Formula
World Champion Formula

For some people soccer is a game of pure chance. Metin Tolan confronts the emotions in the stadium with statistical calculations. The professor for experimental physics at the Universität Dortmund says, “In soccer luck and bad luck can be measured”. And he already knows that we will become Soccer World Champions in the summer. Here the two principles are: stay calm and ask the right questions.

After the World Cup successes of the German team in 1954, 1974 and 1990, today the physicist focuses on probability simulations which he explains with a wink. Prof. Tolan determines the playing ability of the single teams by the average goal rate at the previous World Cup tournaments. To begin with, he calculates the probability of Germany becoming World Champion to be 10.69 percent. But that is not enough.

Tolan calls attention to the fact that, “The host country certainly has a home advantage due to the spectators”. Therefore the goal rate can be raised by one point – and the probability for Germany to get the very sought-after title amounts to 33.18 percent. “And as it is a top class audience the goal rate is increased by two points: that results in a probability of 56.39 percent”, Tolan fiddles about.

For all those he can not convince with this calculation, the 40-year-old has developed the ultimate World Cup formula. With this formula Germany’s rank can be predicted. Tolan determines Germany’s average rank in all previous World Cups to be 3.7. He relates that to a period of “strong” German World Cup teams. According to that, Germany has the strength to win in every fourth or fifth World Cup. In the fifth Soccer World Cup in world history, in 1954, the team got the first title and five tournaments later the second. In case of the victory in 1990, four World Cups had passed and to periodically continue the series 5 - 5 - 4, a 4 has to follow now. With a smile in his face the scientist therefore proofs that the trophy will remain in Germany this year.

Source: Universitaet Dortmund

Explore further: Rio becomes first Brazilian city to ban use of Uber

Related Stories

Satellite sees smoky skies over World Cup soccer

July 6, 2015

Soccer fever gripped the U.S. at the same time as the smoke from Canadian wildfires gripped the skies over Vancouver, British Columbia. This was the site of the 2015 FIFA Women's World Cup Finals on July 05, 2015.

Recommended for you

Team extends the lifetime of atoms using a mirror

October 13, 2015

Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology have succeeded in an experiment where they get an artificial atom to survive ten times longer than normal by positioning the atom in front of a mirror. The findings were recently ...


Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.