Coronavirus is significant, but is it a true black swan event?
Since the "black swan" metaphor was coined in the 2007 book of the same name it has become fashionable to label virtually all low probability/high impact events black swans.
Since the "black swan" metaphor was coined in the 2007 book of the same name it has become fashionable to label virtually all low probability/high impact events black swans.
Social Sciences
May 1, 2020
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26
It is easy to buy into the narrative that COVID-19 is one of the five horsemen of the apocalypse, if you read historian Ian Morris and his analysis of the rise and fall of human social development over the past 15,000 years.
Other
Apr 15, 2020
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12
The Bank for International Settlements—the "central bank" for central banks—made headlines this week with a report outlining how the next major financial crisis may come from unexpected climate risks.
Environment
Jan 24, 2020
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8
On this Independence Day a century and a half ago, Henrietta Swan Leavitt was born. While working at Harvard College Observatory in Cambridge, Mass. – now part of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) – ...
Astronomy
Jul 4, 2018
0
74
Discussions about the nature of science and scientific theories are often confused by the outdated view that such theories are rendered false when anomalies arise. The notion of a scientific theory as a static object should ...
Other
May 1, 2018
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17
With its snow-white plumage and elegant posture, mute swans are exalted in European ballets and fairy tales as symbols of love and beauty. But to many wildlife biologists, they are aggressive and destructive invaders in U.S. ...
Ecology
Sep 18, 2017
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5
New Zealand once had its own species of black swan but, like the moa, it was hunted to extinction soon after humans arrived in the late 13th century.
Plants & Animals
Jul 26, 2017
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20
Black swan events are rare and surprising occurrences that happen without notice and often wreak havoc on society. The metaphor has been used to describe banking collapses, devastating earthquakes and other major surprises ...
Ecology
Mar 7, 2017
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186
It is well-known that birds can fly, swim and walk, but now there is scientific evidence that birds also can windsurf. Olle Terenius from the Department of Ecology at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences reports ...
Plants & Animals
Oct 21, 2016
1
7
Researchers at the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus are involved in a pioneering project to safeguard Europe's smallest swan, which has won support from Dame Judi Dench, Sir Ranulph Fiennes, Pen Hadow and Sir David Attenborough ...
Ecology
Apr 26, 2016
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24