An ensemble forecast is a predictive methodology in which multiple simulations of a system, typically using numerical models, are generated by varying initial conditions, model physics, or parameterizations to characterize forecast uncertainty and probabilistic outcomes. As a human activity, it involves the design, execution, and interpretation of these ensembles by experts to assess the range, likelihood, and robustness of possible future states. Practitioners aggregate and statistically analyze ensemble members to derive probabilistic guidance, quantify confidence levels, and support decision-making in applications such as weather prediction, climate projections, hydrology, and other complex dynamical systems.
Researchers at the Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo and George Mason University's College of Science have developed a new method that improves air temperature forecasts one to five weeks in advance—without ...
Environment
Apr 6, 2026
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Have you ever stopped to wonder how forecasters can predict the weather days in advance, or how scientists figure out how the climate might evolve under different policies?
Environment
Feb 25, 2026
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SeaCast is an innovative high-resolution forecasting system for the Mediterranean that harnesses AI to deliver faster and more energy-efficient predictions than traditional models. Unlike existing global AI models, which ...
Earth Sciences
Feb 17, 2026
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During an epidemic, some of the most critical questions for healthcare decision-makers are the hardest ones to answer: When will the epidemic peak, how many people will need treatment at once and how long will that peak level ...
Environment
Oct 25, 2025
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Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting plays a significant role in the early warning of extreme weather events and disaster risk prevention, but its predictive capability remains limited.
Environment
Mar 21, 2025
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