El Niño is starting to lose strength after fueling a hot, stormy year. An atmospheric scientist explains what's ahead

That strong El Niño is now starting to weaken and will likely be gone by late spring 2024.

So, what does that mean for the months ahead—and for the 2024 ?

What is El Niño?

Let's start with a quick look at what an El Niño is.

El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, are climate patterns that influence weather around the world. El Niño tends to raise global temperatures, as we saw in 2023, while La Niña events tend to be slightly cooler. The two result in fluctuating above and below the warming trend set by climate change.

El Niño starts as warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, off South America.

Typically, tropical Pacific winds blow from the east, exposing cold water along the equator and building up warm water in the western Pacific. Every three to seven years or so, however, these winds relax or turn to blow from the west. When that happens, warm water rushes to the east. The warmer-than-normal water drives more rainfall and alters winds around the world. This is El Niño.

Reds and yellows show where Pacific waters were warmer in 2024 than in 2022. The abnormally warmer region along the equator is what we call El Niño. Weak El Niño events occur every few years, with strong events like this averaging once every 10 to 20 years. Credit: NOAA

Credit: The Conversation

Typical winters under El Niño and La Niña show the striking differences between the two patterns. Not all El Niños turn out this way. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov