Published today in Nature Sustainability, the study shows that weather information must be paired with practical "risk-smoothing" measures, such as supplementary livestock feed, drought insurance, targeted financial support or improved market access, so farmers at risk of losing livestock can act before drought strikes.

By combining improved access to climate information with supported risk-smoothing, livestock farmers can avoid environmental trade-offs that occur when either is used in isolation.

Lead author Dr. Matt Clark, a research associate in sustainability science with the Thriving Oceans Research Hub in the University of Sydney's School of Geosciences, said climate variability was becoming an "inequity multiplier."

"If the forecasts prove correct and we see a near-record El Niño develop, we expect this will amplify inequalities across southern African rangelands," Clark said.

When forecasts are not enough

"The problem isn't that poor farmers don't have climate information. The problem is they often can't afford to act on it. Wealthier producers can reduce herd sizes ahead of drought and rebuild when conditions improve. Many small-scale pastoralists simply don't have that financial buffer."

Across southern Africa, millions of pastoralists depend on cattle, sheep and goats grazing vast rangelands stretching across Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Livestock are far more than a source of income; they are a family's savings, food security and cultural identity, often passed down through generations.