What would happen if the Amazon rainforest dried out? This decades-long experiment has some answers

But this patch of degraded , about the size of a soccer field, is a scientific experiment. Launched in 2000 by Brazilian and British scientists, Esecaflor—short for "Forest Drought Study Project" in Portuguese— set out to simulate a future in which the changing climate could deplete the Amazon of rainfall. It is the longest-running project of its kind in the world, and has become a source for dozens of academic articles in fields ranging from meteorology to ecology and physiology.

Understanding how drought can affect the Amazon, an area twice the size of India that crosses into several South American nations, has implications far beyond the region. The rainforest stores a massive amount of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is the main driver of climate change. According to one study, the Amazon stores the equivalent of two years of global carbon emissions, which mainly come from the burning of coal, oil and gasoline. When trees are cut, or wither and die from drought, they release into the atmosphere the carbon they were storing, which accelerates global warming.

University of Exeter researcher Mateus Cardoso Silva works in the forest at the Esecaflor project in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Joao de Athaydes, who is a meteorologist, shows part of the plastic panels installed to mimic stress from drought, at the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Sparse tree cover is visible in the area of the Esecaflor project made to mimic a drought in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Natural forest density is visible in the Esecaflor project control area in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree's leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree's leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Joao de Athaydes, who is a meteorologist, looks at the humidity radars on a tower at the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Researcher Ari Miranda Gomes collects sap from a tree at the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future, in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Curua River flows near the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future, in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Saturday, March 22, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

A white tree that is dead stands within a section of the Caxiuana National Forest that is used as a control plot for an experiment on drought run by the Esecaflor project in Para state, Brazil, Saturday, March 22, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz

Environmentalists walk through the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, near the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future Saturday, March 22, 2025. Credit: AP Photo/Jorge Saenz