Atmospheric rivers are shifting poleward, reshaping global weather patterns

The shift is worsening droughts in some regions, intensifying flooding in others, and putting water resources that many communities rely on at risk. When reach far northward into the Arctic, they can also melt sea ice, affecting the global climate.

In a new study published in Science Advances, University of California, Santa Barbara, climate scientist Qinghua Ding and I show that atmospheric rivers have shifted about 6 to 10 degrees toward the two poles over the past four decades.

Atmospheric rivers on the move

Atmospheric rivers aren't just a U.S West Coast thing. They form in many parts of the world and provide over half of the mean annual runoff in these regions, including the U.S. Southeast coasts and West Coast, Southeast Asia, New Zealand, northern Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom and south-central Chile.

Atmospheric rivers are long filaments of moisture that curve poleward. Several are visible in this satellite image. Credit: Bin Guan, NASA/JPL-Caltech and UCLA

La Niña, with cooler water in the eastern Pacific, fades, and El Niño, with warmer water, starts to form in the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2023. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov

A satellite image on Feb. 20, 2017, shows an atmospheric river stretching from Hawaii to California, where it brought drenching rain. Credit: NASA/Earth Observatory/Jesse Allen