"Humans have been trying to figure out bird migration for a really long time," says Dan Sheldon, professor of information and computer sciences at UMass Amherst, the paper's senior author and a passionate amateur birder. "But," adds Miguel Fuentes, the paper's lead author and graduate student in computer science at UMass Amherst, "it's incredibly difficult to get precise, real-time information on which birds are where, let alone where, exactly, they are going."

There have been many efforts, both previous and ongoing, to tag and track individual birds, which have yielded invaluable insights. But it's difficult to physically tag birds in large enough numbers—not to mention the expense of such an undertaking—to form a complete enough picture to predict bird movements. "It's really hard to understand how an entire species moves across the continent with tracking approaches," says Sheldon, "because they tell you the routes that some birds caught in specific locations followed, but not how birds in completely different locations might move."