Sea level rise to dramatically speed up erosion of rock coastlines by 2100

This is according to new Imperial College London research that modeled likely future cliff retreat rates of two rock coasts in the UK. The forecasts are based on predictions of for various greenhouse gas emissions and . The research is published today in Nature Communications.

The study found that rock coasts, traditionally thought of as stable compared to sandy coasts and soft cliffs, are likely to retreat at a rate not seen for 3,000–5,000 years.

At the UK study sites in Yorkshire and Devon, this will cause rock coast cliffs to retreat by at least 10–22 meters inland. This rate of erosion is likely between three and seven times today's rate, and potentially up to tenfold.

Senior author Dr. Dylan Rood, of Imperial's Department of Earth Science said, "Coastal erosion is one of the greatest financial risks to society of any natural hazard. Some rock cliffs are already crumbling, and within the next century, rock coast erosion rates could increase tenfold. Even rock coasts that have been stable in the last hundred years will likely respond to sea level rise by 2030."

The study sites. A) Map of Great Britain with sites located. B) Bideford sample site location. C) Scalby sample site location. D) Bideford topography and sample locations. E) Scalby topography and sample locations. F) Bideford field photo. G) Scalby field photo. Credit: Caroline Brogan, Imperial College London

Relative sea level in past and future for the years 1900 –2100for Bideford (dashed line) and Scalby (solid line). Credit: Caroline Brogan, Imperial College London

Cliff retreat forecasts based on future sea level scenarios at Bideford (a) and Scalby (b). Credit: Caroline Brogan, Imperial College London