News tagged with probabilities

Innovation dilemma suggests that 'better' models are not always better

(Phys.org)—If you had to predict the probability of a catastrophic meteor striking the Earth, you would likely want the most accurate models on which to base your predictions. But a new paper shows that, because the most ...

May 08, 2017 in Mathematics feature
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How statistical thinking should shape the courtroom

The probabilistic revolution first kicked off in the 1600s, when gamblers realized that estimating the likelihood of an event could give them an edge in games of chance.

Apr 25, 2017 in Social Sciences
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Forecasting large earthquakes along the Wasatch Front, Utah

There is a 43% probability that the Wasatch Front region in Utah will experience at least one magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquake, and a 57 % probability of at least one magnitude 6.0 earthquake, in the next 50 years, say ...

Apr 13, 2017 in Earth Sciences
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Waiting to be sold: Researchers develop model to predict probability of home sales

What is the probability that the house you want to sell—or buy—will be sold within a month, two months, three months or more? Computer scientists from Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis have developed what ...

Mar 14, 2017 in Computer Sciences
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Researchers investigate how neurons sample probability distributions

For observations based on sensory data, the human brain must constantly verify which "version" of reality underlies the perception. The answer is gleaned from probability distributions that are stored in the nerve cell network ...

Nov 11, 2016 in General Physics
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Logical methods to interpret evidence in the courtroom get a second hearing

Victoria University of Wellington Emeritus Professor Tony Vignaux has released a second edition of the book Interpreting Evidence: Evaluating Forensic Science in the Courtroom, which aims to answer this question and many ...

Sep 21, 2016 in Social Sciences
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New research estimates probability of mega-earthquake in the Aleutians

A team of researchers from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa (UHM) published a study this week that estimated the probability of a Magnitude 9+ earthquake in the Aleutian Islands—an event with sufficient power to create ...

May 13, 2016 in Earth Sciences
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Solving hard quantum problems—everything is connected

Quantum objects cannot just be understood as the sum of their parts. This is what makes quantum calculations so complicated. Scientists at TU Wien have now calculated Bose-Einstein-condensates, revealing the secrets of the ...

Jan 26, 2016 in Quantum Physics
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Overwhelming evidence? It's probably a bad thing

The old adage that says "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is" has finally been put to the test – mathematically – in research led by the University of Adelaide.

Jan 12, 2016 in Mathematics
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Improving accuracy in genomic mapping with time-series data

If you already have the sequenced map of an organism's genome but want to look for structural oddities in a sample, you can check the genomic barcode—a series of distances between known, targeted sites—by cutting a DNA ...

Dec 29, 2015 in Biotechnology
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