July heatwave up to 3C hotter due to climate change

heatwave
Credit: CC0 Public Domain

The record-shattering heatwave that baked much of northern Europe last month was likely between 1.5 to 3.0 degrees Celsius hotter due to manmade climate change, an international team of scientists said Friday.

The three-day peak saw temperature records tumble in Belgium, the Netherlands and Britain while the city of Paris experienced its hottest day ever with the mercury topping out at 42.6C (108.7 Fahrenheit) on July 25.

The ferocious heat came off the back of similar soaring temperatures in June, helping that month to be the hottest June since records began.

Scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) team combined climate modelling with historical heatwave trends and compared it with monitoring data across the continent.

They concluded that the temperatures produced by the climate models were as much as 3C (5.5 degrees Farenheit) lower than those actually observed during the heatwave in Europe.

"In all locations an event like the observed would have been 1.5 to 3C cooler in an unchanged climate," the WWA said, adding that the difference was "consistent with increased instances of morbidity and mortality."

Global warming also made the July heatwave in some countries between 10-100 times more likely to occur, compared with computer simulations.

Such temperature extremes in northern Europe, without the additional 1C centigrade humans have added to the atmosphere since the industrial era, would be expected on average once every 1,000 years.

Michael Byrne, lecturer in Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of St Andrews, said the analysis had "found the fingerprints of climate change all over (last month's) extreme temperatures."

"We know without doubt that climate change will bring increasingly severe heatwaves, but also heavier downpours and more flooding," added Byrne, who was not involved in the research.

The July heatwave caused widespread disruption, prompting train cancellations and emergency measures in many cities. Several heat-related deaths were reported, although a precise toll is likely to take weeks to materialise.

The June heatwave itself was likely made at least five times more likely by climate change, and was around 4C hotter than an equivalent heatwave a century ago.

'Not science fiction'

Europe has experienced exceptionally intense heatwaves in 2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018 and two this year, peaks consistent with the general warming trend: the four hottest years on record globally were the last four years.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Friday said that preliminary data showed July may have been the hottest month ever recorded.

Temperature readings and data provided by the European Union's Copernicus monitoring service showed that the first 29 days of July 2019 were equal to or possibly warmer than the hottest month ever, currently July 2016.

While the data needs confirming, the WMO said the figures were "particularly significant" as July 2016 occurred during a strong El Nino warming event, absent in 2019.

"July has re-written climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at local, national and global level," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

July also saw unprecedented melting of the Greenland ice sheet, with 12 billion tonnes of ice flowing into the sea, and wildfires in the Artic spewing out thousands of tonnes of planet-warming CO2.

"This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action," said Taalas.


Explore further

Climate change made French heatwave 'more likely' in hottest June ever

More information: Read the full report 'Human contribution to the record-breaking July 2019 heat wave in Western Europe'.

© 2019 AFP

Citation: July heatwave up to 3C hotter due to climate change (2019, August 2) retrieved 16 September 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-08-july-heatwave-3c-hotter-due.html
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Aug 02, 2019
All over the world, there is climate change that results in global warming. I fell on my own experience that every summer getting hotter. This summer was 3 degrees up than the hottest days 5 years ago. It depends on the country's location and production, small countries that situate far from the ocean and have no heavy productions suffer less from global warming and do not cause global warming. The main contributors are https://gradesfix...change/. And we all need to think how to find a solution.

Aug 02, 2019
i thought it was supposed to be 'GLOBAL' , remember ? 1. / degrees , global . all else is
'' weather ''

Aug 02, 2019
Almost as hot in medieval warm period during more than 100 years, this led to a red hot planet or did it? No it actually led to the little ice age with glaciers everywhere...
It would be interesting to know what climate models predict when going back in time, say to the little ice age and before that the medieval warm period.
I bet the models will not predict one of them (assumed of course that the models really predict, not play a recording because the data was put into by hand).
This will show that the models are not correct and cannot be used.
So 'scientists' prove to me that you can predict correctly in retrospect!

Aug 02, 2019
It is obscene, for what idiots, the AGW Cult takes their flock.
Gobble up, Chicken Littles.


Aug 02, 2019
And the liar deniers keep on lying and denying. It's only gonna get worse, and it's going to keep on getting worse until we get our shit together and do something about it.

Aug 02, 2019
It's beyond obscene for what jackasses the AGW Cult takes their Chicken Little flock.
https://pagesix.c...64527849

Aug 02, 2019
Complete and utter bollocks, just more psychological terrorism by the AGWite cabal.

Aug 02, 2019
So now the "AGWite cabal" can make two heatwaves in Europe in the same summer?

Nice. Looks like they control the world's weather. According to you anyway.

What a dumbshit.

Aug 02, 2019
Texas,Oklahoma and Arkansas, all saw record COLD temperatures during the European heat wave. High temps from 58F to 64F.

Aug 02, 2019
Meanwhile, at the same time, there is also an underreported heat wave in Southeast Asia. And world temperatures are the highest in history again.

When are you going to give up the bullshit? You're like Russians or something, denying and lying while your arctic burns and chokes up all your cities.

Aug 02, 2019
And Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas compared with Europe? Yuo're funny, @Old.

Aug 02, 2019
''are the highest in history again. ''

your holier than thou ears will burn ,

https://www.youtu...8gcpggfs


Aug 02, 2019
Hey, man, I just bring the news, I ain't responsible for it.

The hottest years since we started measuring have been the last four. Do the statistics and tell us how likely that is if the Earth isn't getting hotter.

I'd love to play poker with you. You'd be drawing to inside straights left and right, and trying to bluff. A real optimist (and I don't mean that in a complimentary way).

Aug 02, 2019
@antigoracle
@cantdrive85
@snoosebaum
@Old_C-Code.

You guys sound/look like a bunch of dumb-bunnies caught in the headlights of a truck bearing down on you, and telling yourselves it's just an empty-threat-conspiracy by the smart-bunnies to scare you off. If it wasn't so tragically serious for everyone concerned, it would be hilarious to observe you, day in day out, being such mindless "weaponised stupids" for the mercenary/political/religious interests/lobby groups benefitting from your stupidity at the expense of your own futures and that of your children/grandchildren. That's a scary thought: that such weaponised stupids have bred/influenced more bunnies like themselves; although, you never know, your children/grandchildren may be not so stupid as their parents/grandparents if they don't take after them in the most important respect. One can but hope they will forgive you for your present/ongoing betrayal of them and all humanity. Good luck to them; and to us all. :)


Aug 02, 2019
Ignorant people of Galileo's times also disbelieved the work of a genius, so it is normal to have non-expert opinions of the knowledge-less people. Such people exist everywhere.

Aug 02, 2019
'' The hottest years since we started measuring have been the last four. ''

uh huh , pick any location show me

https://richmond....ure.html


Aug 02, 2019
They're world averages, dumbshit. "Pick a location" is cherry picking by you.

Aug 02, 2019
haha, without your cooked nice 'n hot data u got nutt'n

Aug 02, 2019
You guys sound/look like a bunch of dumb-bunnies


I stated a simple fact about record cold temperatures in other places at the same time as the heatwave.

You're insane.

Aug 02, 2019
@Old_C_Code (and @snoosebaum if reading).
You guys sound/look like a bunch of dumb-bunnies


I stated a simple fact about record cold temperatures in other places at the same time as the heatwave.

You're insane.
What exactly is it about the meaning of 'global average' high-temperature record(s) that is eluding you, mate? Oh, and easy does it with cavalierly calling people "insane" @OCC, as all indications are that it is you may be the one whose lucidity levels are not what they should be when it comes to the reality of AGW trending for the worse. If you still have trouble understanding the global average aspect, maybe next time you visit your shrink you can ask them to explain it to you and then do a test based on your responses/understandings to the new information as a check to see if your lucidity levels are recovering to any significant degree. I hope so, for your own sake as well as your family/children etc. Good luck. :)

Aug 03, 2019
Almost as hot in medieval warm period during more than 100 years,
- freeiam

You mean this magical, mystical medieval warm period that barely manages to show up on any temperature reconstruction?

Where is it in the following graph? I can't see it.

https://qph.fs.qu...e7004358


Aug 03, 2019
@antigoracle = Mentally Retarded
@cantdrive85 = Congenital Liar
@snoosebaum = Mental Defective
@Old_C-Code. = Senile.

Aug 03, 2019
You guys sound/look like a bunch of dumb-bunnies
- Old C Code

http://www.woodfo...every:12

Looks like an increase to me.

You are senile... You realize that don't you?

Aug 03, 2019
Hmmm Interesting title.
"July heatwave up to 3C hotter due to climate change".

Let's see now. They mention July, and now its August. I think that those two months mean that it's = SUMMER. YES. folks, it is, indeed, Summer. Those hazy, lazy days of Summer when crazy humans head for the beach to get tanned/sunburned and ride the waves on their surfboards before they wipeout and land on the gritty sand - that is, if they are not bitten by a shark while they're somewhere offshore.
Beautiful blue skies. barely any clouds; what more could a surfer and beach goer want? And lots of humans peeing in the water as well.
Oh, it's too hot, you say? Well, in a few months your heating bills will go up as your furnace is chugging along or you're huddling by the fireplace wrapped in blankets to keep warm.

So you are fond of complaining of the heat now. And in a few more months you will be fond of complaining of the cold weather.
Humans can't seem to make up their minds which is worse.

Aug 03, 2019
@SEU

Get help. You HEAVILY need it. In northeast France, those last twenty five years, i barely experienced ANYTHING like that, and i was working EVERY SUMMER outside, as a child, taking care of and gathering vegetables. Sun was never a bother. You just had to drink a little from time to time.
In 2003, it was awful. What i could do back then, i couldn't that easily anymore and i was still young. Still did it but damn, i often had to stop and drink under the trees.
This year? Hell on Earth. If i was still a kid, i would've fried in less than ten mins. NEVER BEFORE the heat has been so aggressive. Gosh, even opening windows in the morning BARELY changed anything during the two special weeks (in June, nd then in July)!
I don't care, in this matter, if it's the result of climate change, accelerating a natural process like a damn broken tape record or if it's just something weird we'll never see again. What happened WASN'T normal. Don't you ever say that!

Aug 03, 2019
''ou mean this magical, mystical medieval warm period that barely manages to show up on any temperature reconstruction?''

http://www.co2sci...rgnh.php

Aug 03, 2019
''But current official pronouncements of global temperature records come from a fairly limited and error-prone array of thermometers which were never intended to measure global temperature trends. The global surface thermometer network has three major problems when it comes to getting global-average temperatures:''

https://wattsupwi..._WfBe42c

Aug 03, 2019
What exactly is it about the meaning of 'global average' high-temperature record(s) that is eluding you, mate? Oh, and easy does it with cavalierly calling people "insane" @OCC,


Okay, you're a fool, not insane. If you push Russia collusion and "emergency prevention of" global warming that is. As China and India continue their massive polluting.

Aug 03, 2019
Are there vineyards in Scotland? There use to be, until it got too cold. Call when the wine starts to flow.

Aug 03, 2019
So many displays of supposed concern about "climate change". In fact, no one who claims to care really does!
Those who care act certain ways. They show an interest in the subject. The are not inclined necessarily to refuse explanations other than the "official story". Many could be interested in alternate explanations even if just to disprove them. They don't necessarily settle for what they are told to believe, and they certainly won't accept insipid doggerel as "disproof" of alternate theories. Mention chemtrails, though, and those who claim to care won't even say the name!
Mention that chemtrails caused the number of tornadoes to go from a nearly constant 180 to eight or nine times that number now, and liars will insist that a thousand tornadoes a year managed to hide somewhere for a century or more.
Say that there are no pictures of chemtrails before 1997, and liars will try to present pictures of sky writing as chemtrails!

Aug 03, 2019
Say that there are no pictures of chemtrails before 1997, and liars will try to present pictures of sky writing as chemtrails!

There's never been any evidence of chemtrails, so saying there are no pictures of chemtrails before 1997 or after 1997 are both correct. Contrails, on the other hand, have been around a long, long time. Here's some from WWII: http://contrailsc...ntrails/ . The complete lack of evidence for chemtrails and the fact that the well known physics about CO2 show that there's no need for a chemtrail conspiracy theory to account for the current warming should be sufficient for most to discount chemtrails. But, as you've indicated, you're completely insane. Still, your chemtrail insanity can be entertaining. Your racist screeds, on the other hand, are a bit tiresome. Stick to the chemtrail insanity - it's your better material ;).

Aug 03, 2019
@Old_C_Code.
Okay, you're a fool, not insane. ... As China and India continue their massive polluting.
That's better; I prefer fool to insane any day! As to the India/China thing, I urge you to consider the benefits of transitioning away from coal to renewables; which is advisable even in pure economics, social, health, sustainability and energy security terms, even if global warming wasn't involved!

Clean, cost effective energy sources are there to be had without all the destruction of land/aquifers, pollution of air/water/land wherever coal is transported/stored/burnt; and dirty/dangerous jobs associated with mining/handling of it. Then there're longterm 'opportunity costs' associated with investment in coal power; whereas same investment in renewables systems (including storage) also allows use of land under wind farms/solar-panel parks etc. Do it for that alone; and let India/China stew in their filth and suffer economic/energy insecurity going forward. We can do better! :)

Aug 03, 2019
Are there vineyards in Scotland? There use to be, until it got too cold. Call when the wine starts to flow.


Denier trying to feed bollocks https://www.googl...9981!5i5

Aug 03, 2019
@julianpenrod.

There is no need for "chemtrails" to explain increasing incidence/severity/coverage/unseasonal etc occurrences of Tornadoes. The global warming causes instabilities and accelerated streaming and 'mixing' turbulence, especially in the polar-excursions into the lower latitudes. This alone creates the conditions for more tornadoes than previously settled global pattern. Then there's the increased 'wake turbulence' from the larger airplane wingtips that create vortices that in some cloud/turbulent weather conditions may 'grow' into larger vortices which may eventually 'tip over' and 'drop lower' enough to form a self-reinforcing tornado when sufficient heat/water vapour are available to develop into full-blown tornadoes. That's plenty factors which have been changing since large plane travel, global warming became more prevalent. No need for 'chemtrails' to explain the changed frequency/extensiveness of the weather/climate patterns/events being observed now. Good luck. :)

Aug 03, 2019
The Earth has natural buffers in place which rebound climate. Global warming will not be a runaway phenomenon. As temperatures increase we can expect an increase in occurrence and/or intensity of weather events. Weather events have a multi tier effect on climate. Rain washes out the atmosphere of pollutants. Rain also combines with carbon dioxide producing carbonic acid reducing the concentration of the greenhouse gas. Winds redistribute concentrated heat. Anthropogenic Climate Change poses no real long term risk/threat to this planet. On the other hand, real threats do exist, some with long term catastrophic potential. Asteroid strikes, Supervolcanoes, variation in solar output, nuclear war, Earths orbit being gravitationally altered by some rogue massive body making a close approach... This list is potentially infinite. Should we work on reducing our greenhousing practices? Hell yes. Is this the biggest worry we should have in the world today? not by a long shot.

Aug 03, 2019
Spring 2019 in the Northeast United States was approximately 2 degrees cooler than average. Was that because of climate change, too, or is it just during Summer heat season?

Aug 03, 2019
The limited size of comments can prevent giving descriptions of chemtrails. They are non dissipating vapor lanes stretching from horizon to horizon and lasting an hour or more. Since 1997, there have been thousands of pictures taken of up to a dozen or so persistent trails in the sky at once! There are no pictures like this before 1997! Liars try to pass off pictures of air shows, sky writing or pictures of contrails cropped short to keep it from being seen that the contrails are not as long as chemtrails.
Also, just because, under certain circumstances, CO2 can cause certain effects doesn't mean that that must then necessarily be taken as the only explanation for the aberrant weather!
Tornado numbers went from nearly constant 180 to almost nine times that now. In 1997, the air apparently became saturated and that's when chemtrails became visible. 1997 is also the year the major manifestations of "climate change" began!

Aug 03, 2019
1997 is also the year the major manifestations of "climate change" began!

Actually, climate change/global warming started long before that, but the first major temperature increases that could be labeled as mostly due to humans adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere started in the 70s (http://berkeleyea...ratures/ ). Prior to that warming could also be attributed to changes from the sun, but since output from the sun has been decreasing slightly since ~60s, most of the changes starting in the 70s are due to humans. So the "evidence" for chemtrails are, again, falsified.

Aug 04, 2019
Man, I'm glad I'm too busy to read these global warming articles very often. Because these comment sections are just too rage inducing.

The denial really reminds me of how many Catholics reacted when when it was discovered that the Catholic Church had been covering for serial rapists and child molesters. They went on and on for literally years about how it was a conspiracy, and they helped many of the rapists escape justice. A filthy, villainous legacy that is despised by all.

I have been acutely aware of the climate crisis for my entire life - from early elementary school, through high school, college, and graduate school, up to my present research career. And guess what? My present research is on developing tools to survive the conditions that will be coming within my lifetime. Tools that I fully expect to need for my personal use.

I guess it's all abstract to you. Let me tell you something more direct. You are deeply hated, and you deserve it.

Aug 04, 2019
CO2 is a greenhouse gas. It is a fact, you can't deny it. Any deniers can verify that themselves by doing their own eperiment in a small greenhouse setup. CO2 released into the atmosphere will act the same way. Now, even if there are natural sources for the CO2, we can only control the sources we know we can control.

If a ball weighs 1g and you are filling a huge resorvoir with 1 billion grams of balls, you have to infer that there are 1 billion balls with a some margin for error (minimal). You would not want to manually count the balls to the dot.

Deniers are like these people who want to count the balls to the dot. Exactly what part of Greenhouse effect and our contribution to it that they don't understand is something that most of us could not understand.

Aug 04, 2019
I'm waiting for the sewage rope gangs. That'll take care of the liar deniers. Recommended: hang them up by their ankles over rising septic tanks for the tide to take. Just like in Venice.

Aug 04, 2019
Are there vineyards in Scotland? There use to be, until it got too cold. Call when the wine starts to flow.


Denier trying to feed bollocks https://www.googl...9981!5i5


Not cluster grapes (such as grown in southern France) which need >100 days of 27C and sunshine. The cultivation of hops and barley replaced cluster grapes in Northern Europe in ~1300


Aug 04, 2019
CDS = climate derangement syndrome

i'm not one for chemtrail nonsense , but now we never hear the end of it , thanks to ,,,

https://thefreeth...iVty7EYk

https://projects....p/scopex

Aug 04, 2019
Among other things, apparently, andyarok never heard or didn't understand "science" saying not to necessarily extrapolate from "laboratory conditions". "Science" says that many, many interactions can take place under what are called "real world conditions".
What of the "ozone hole" so many were told to be terrified of?
The depletion of ozone was supposedly linked to chlorofluorocarbons, which began in the 1930's. Around the 1940's a leveling off, even a decrease, of supposed "global warming" took place and went until the late 1970's. The late 1970's is when demands to decrease use of chlorofluorocarbons began. The late 1970's to the present is when concerns about "global warming" were expressed. By about 2005, use of chlorofluorocarbons was almost nonexistent. At the same time, concerns about "global warming" are significant but the size of the ozone hole seems to be leveling off. It can be said that the ozone hole had a moderating effect on "global warming".

Aug 04, 2019
CDS = climate derangement syndrome

i'm not one for chemtrail nonsense , but now we never hear the end of it , thanks to ,,,

https://thefreeth...iVty7EYk
A few years ago i pointed out to some enthusiastic capitalists that their model wasn't based on reality because no one was charging us money for the sunlight. Sure didn't take them long to make the adjustment, did it...

Aug 04, 2019
Are there vineyards in Scotland? There use to be, until it got too cold. Call when the wine starts to flow.


Denier trying to feed bollocks https://www.googl...9981!5i5


Not cluster grapes (such as grown in southern France) which need >100 days of 27C and sunshine. The cultivation of hops and barley replaced cluster grapes in Northern Europe in ~1300
More bollocks anybody ?

What is needed to grow grapes is plenty of sunshine, not heat. https://www.growi...oes-not/

Sure looks like fine clusters to me. http://www.levent...nes.html

Aug 04, 2019
Well, now you know why the AGW Cult feeds their Chicken Shites so much bullshit.
They gobble it up and believe it makes them smarter.
LMAO.

Aug 04, 2019
Say that there are no pictures of chemtrails before 1997, and liars will try


They are CONDENSATION trails you idiot. Seen since jets have flown.

Why wouldn't they just add the crap you claim they spew to the water supply? Fool.

Aug 05, 2019
Are there vineyards in Scotland? There use to be, until it got too cold. Call when the wine starts to flow.


Denier trying to feed bollocks https://www.googl...9981!5i5


Not cluster grapes (such as grown in southern France) which need >100 days of 27C and sunshine. The cultivation of hops and barley replaced cluster grapes in Northern Europe in ~1300

Champagne - avg daily max July 23.2C

https://en.climat...te-graph






Aug 09, 2019
@antigoracle.

It's amazing what "weaponised stupids" and/or bots can do on the net these days, hey @antigoracle? Your daily betrayal of all that is ethical may earn you your 'thirty pieces of silver' for the moment, but your family/descendants will pay for it manyfold in the future. You have demonstrated that you and your troll-factory-employed mates are such twisted/mercenary bots and/or weaponised-stupids that there's no hope of reason or humanity being realised in you or your programmers/handlers any time soon, @antigoracle. Pity.

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