The dead may outnumber the living on Facebook within 50 years

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New analysis by academics from the Oxford Internet Institute (OII), part of the University of Oxford, predicts the dead may outnumber the living on Facebook within fifty years, a trend that will have grave implications for how we treat our digital heritage in the future.

The analysis predicts that, based on 2018 user levels, at least 1.4 billion members will die before 2100. In this scenario, the dead could outnumber the living by 2070. If the world's largest social network continues to expand at current rates, however, the number of deceased users could reach as high as 4.9 billion before the end of the century.

"These statistics give rise to new and difficult questions around who has the right to all this data, how should it be managed in the best interests of the families and friends of the deceased and its use by future historians to understand the past," said lead author Carl Öhman, a doctoral candidate at the OII.

"On a societal level, we have just begun asking these questions and we have a long way to go. The management of our digital remains will eventually affect everyone who uses social media, since all of us will one day pass away and leave our data behind. But the totality of the deceased user profiles also amounts to something larger than the sum of its parts. It is, or will at least become, part of our global digital heritage."

Co-author David Watson, also a DPhil student at the OII, explained: "Never before in history has such a vast archive of human behaviour and culture been assembled in one place. Controlling this archive will, in a sense, be to control our history. It is therefore important that we ensure that access to these historical data is not limited to a single for-profit firm. It is also important to make sure that can use our digital heritage to understand their history."

The analysis sets up two potential extreme scenarios, arguing that the future trend will fall somewhere in between:

  • The first scenario assumes that no new users join as of 2018. Under these conditions, Asia's share of dead users increases rapidly to account for nearly 44% of the total by the end of the century. Nearly half of those profiles come from India and Indonesia, which together account for just under 279 million Facebook mortalities by 2100.
  • The second scenario assumes that Facebook continues to grow by its current rate of 13% globally, every year, until each market reaches saturation. Under these conditions, Africa will make up a growing share of dead users. Nigeria, in particular, becomes a major hub in this scenario, accounting for over 6% of the total. By contrast, Western users will account for only a minority of users, with only the US making the top 10.

"The results should be interpreted not as a prediction of the future, but as a commentary on the current development, and an opportunity to shape what future we are headed towards," explains Öhman. "But this has no bearing on our larger point that critical discussion of online death and its macroscopic implications is urgently needed. Facebook is merely an example of what awaits any platform with similar connectivity and global reach."

Watson added: "Facebook should invite historians, archivists, archaeologists and ethicists to participate in the process of curating the vast volume of accumulated data that we leave behind as we pass away. This is not just about finding solutions that will be sustainable for the next couple of years, but possibly for many decades ahead."

The predictions are based on data from the United Nations, which provide the expected number of mortalities and total populations for every country in the world distributed by age, and Facebook data scraped from the company's Audience Insights feature. While the study notes that this self-reported dataset has several limitations, this provides the most comprehensive publicly available estimate of the network's size and distribution


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More information: Carl J Öhman et al, Are the dead taking over Facebook? A Big Data approach to the future of death online, Big Data & Society (2019). DOI: 10.1177/2053951719842540
Citation: The dead may outnumber the living on Facebook within 50 years (2019, April 27) retrieved 23 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2019-04-dead-outnumber-facebook-years.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
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Apr 27, 2019
Retaining Data

So people visit Facebook
to visit the living
where they find every one has gone to that other place
a natural event where panic is taken place what to do with the data
where, on the other hand
Flickr's new owners
are deleting their archive of photography
the reverse of retaining data
where people visit Flickr to view and share Flickr's store of digital photographic data
where some users have like facebook have gone to that other place
still sharing their photographs where the new owners are deleting their library
the very library users flock to share
without which the members will leave in droves
so
Work that one out if you can!

Apr 28, 2019
The Zuck is fck'ing us all. But, facebook users don't cares about that. It's the "only way to share" with family members they claim, LOL. Oh, and they never read the ads which still rake in billions of $$$. Facebook claims freedom of speech allowing facebook to let haters rule. Streaming live content on facebook showing multiple murders and killings. Gee, don't you just want to leave facebook? You facebook users are to blame. It is simple to say and simple to understand, but facebook users are to simple minded to understand they are backdoor supporters of death and hate, IMHO.

Apr 29, 2019
Facebook is what...10 years old?

I don't think we need to worry about what will happen in 50 years. By then another few social platforms will have come and gone.

Apr 29, 2019
Facebook For Fogies

What, in 50 years if your 50 on facebook, you're regarded as a youngster these days
antialias_physorg> Facebook is what...10 years old?

I don't think we need to worry about what will happen in 50 years. By then another few social platforms will have come and gone.

Mark Zuckerberg, Born: 14 May 1984 34 years old
as in 50 years
he willl be a youngster of 84
Has every one lost touch with reality?
Facebook was originally for 18 year olds, not 84 year olds
anyways, Mark Zuckerberg
will have sold it long before he's 84
maybe to Oath, then Oath will have deleted all the data
Oath will create a shell of this Facebook, just as its members are shells of their former youth

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