Switch to e-cars will cost Germany 75,000 jobs: study

June 5, 2018
Things will get slippery for German carmakers as e-cars gain traction, a study finds

The growing use of electrified vehicles is expected to cost Germany's crucial car sector some 75,000 jobs by 2030, a study found Tuesday, with smaller auto parts suppliers set to be worst hit.

The IG Metall union, which commissioned the study along with BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler and a string of car parts makers, said the pivot towards cleaner engines posed a "major challenge" to Germany's biggest industry, which employs more than 800,000 people.

Electric engines are simpler to build and require far fewer parts than petrol- or diesel-fuelled cars.

According to the study, carried out by the Fraunhofer Institute, the shift will eliminate 100,000 of the 210,000 jobs in drivetrain manufacturing by 2030, while around 25,000 new roles will be created linked to batteries and other specific requirements for .

The figures were calculated on the assumption that by then, 25 percent of all cars on Germany's roads will be fully electric, while another 15 percent will be hybrids, which combine an electric motor with a traditional internal combustion .

Today, these cars account for less than two percent of the market.

IG Metall chief Joerg Hofmann said the government and company bosses needed to take urgent action to prepare the industry for the upheaval, including through retraining schemes.

But he also warned that not everyone would survive the electric revolution.

"There will be suppliers who won't be able to adapt their business model, especially among small- and medium-sized companies," Hofmann told reporters in Frankfurt.

Whereas it takes some 4,000 workers to assemble a million gasoline-powered engines per year, just 1,840 are needed to build the same number of electric motors, the study said.

Volkswagen's staff representative Bernd Osterloh told reporters that the car giant would respond to the changes by phasing out jobs through retirement schemes and "using the opportunities presented by the transformation".

Despite being home to some of the world's biggest and best known carmakers, Germany's auto industry was slow to focus its attention on the greener, smarter vehicles of the future—allowing newcomers like Tesla to take the lead.

But German firms have stepped up their efforts in the wake of Volkswagen's 2015 "dieselgate" emissions cheating scandal, which badly damaged the reputation of diesel cars and spurred a push towards more environmentally friendly engines.

Explore further: German car sales plunge in May as diesel falls out of favour

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antialias_physorg
4.2 / 5 (6) Jun 05, 2018
Well...NOT switching to electric will cost all 800000 jobs. Bit of a no-brainer which is better. 2030 is also far enough off so that layoffs can be prevented via normal retirement fluctuation.

Time to build up a new tech niche. (e.g. exporting integrated renewable energy solutions for whole countries sounds like a promising long-term business model.)
Eikka
1 / 5 (1) Jun 05, 2018
Well...NOT switching to electric will cost all 800000 jobs.


How do you reckon?

That the entire auto-industry would vanish in just 12 years?

That there wouldn't be any alternative to EVs?

The EV production chain has supply issues to reach 25% of all cars by 2030. They'd have to start selling 50% of new cars starting -today- to reach the goal.
greenonions1
not rated yet Jun 06, 2018
We have nothing to fear - but fear itself. Well not quiet true - I think we should really fear lack of vision. Many jobs will disappear in the flux of economies affected by technology change. If we structure it right - we can all back down on our 'work' time - and increase our 'play' time. The 'Protestant ethic' has to be challenged. A difficult up hill battle. Too many overlords making shit loads of money - off poorly educated people - serving burgers at McDonalds. But Trump needs his Big Macs - right? Oh no - that is fish sandwiches and diet coke!!!
gkam
1 / 5 (3) Jun 06, 2018
" If we structure it right - we can all back down on our 'work' time - and increase our 'play' time."

Tell that to the wife of the auto mechanic. We will see great social disruptions.
greenonions1
5 / 5 (1) Jun 06, 2018
Tell that to the wife of the auto mechanic. We will see great social disruptions.
I think there is of course going to be great technological change. This article is correct - electric cars are going to change our world profoundly. I think the 'disruptions' part depends on how we handle things. Without a re-think of our approach to work - yes we are in trouble. If we do it right - we all benefit from the new tech, and drop our addiction to boring jobs. I have no idea if we are going to get smart, or keep burning fossil fuels, and punch a clock to satisfy our 'protestant work ethic.'
Eikka
1 / 5 (1) Jun 08, 2018
If we structure it right - we can all back down on our 'work' time - and increase our 'play' time. The 'Protestant ethic' has to be challenged.


"Work" means producing value, and "play" means consuming value. The more you play instead of work, the poorer you become.

"Play" can also be taken to mean "perform", which makes it fit the producer-servant dichotomy just as well. Play and play instead of work and work, and the society becomes a worse place to live in.

Then there's also the mistaken concept of "the robots will do the work". If you build a robot to displace a human worker, or even a thousand workers, the human workers do not go away - you still have to pay them - so the situation only gets worse: now you have to pay for the human AND the robot, and you simply made yourself poorer.
Eikka
not rated yet Jun 08, 2018
So, the "protestant work ethic" is in the end the most level-headed. Don't work - don't eat. The need to work to earn a living is a great moderator of your apetite as well, and it's the most egalitarian because it still grants you a means to better yourself in the world without having to ask permissions.

No freeloading - no "I deserve... I mean everyone deserves a living by default!".

It's that simple.
antialias_physorg
5 / 5 (1) Jun 08, 2018
Tell that to the wife of the auto mechanic.

Jobs have become obsolete in the past and there will be jobs that become obsolete in the future.
Here's some jobs that no longer exist
https://www.bored...ct-jobs/
Are you really arguing that we should not have gone for electrical lighting, private alarm clocks or automatic call connecting just to save these jobs? Really?

And no: Auto mechanics will not become immediately obsolete. Changeovers don't happen overnight. There will still be plenty of ICE cars around till 2040. That's plenty of time to either find a new niche or be safely retired.

And this goes for all jobs: if you don't keep learning you will fall by the wayside. My brother-in-law is an auto mechanic. Guess what: he's already starting to broaden his expertise to include EV-specific needs. Every change is an opportunity.

greenonions1
not rated yet Jun 08, 2018
Eikka
So, the "protestant work ethic" is in the end the most level-headed
That's an opinion. I disagree. We are living in a new age of technology - but trying to impose the structure of 19th century industrial work. Defining ourselves by what we 'do' - or by our work title - is a choice. We are not handling our world very well at the moment - http://www.resili...ollapse/ I think a re-think of our whole structure would be beneficial. Bring on the robots, and the AI - let them make the stuff we need, and let us relax in terms of the need to punch a clock, and get rid of the bull shit jobs - https://strikemag...it-jobs/
gkam
not rated yet Jun 16, 2018
I have been warning for several years about the huge social disruptions which will ensue in the near future. We have to prepare for those transitions NOW!

The benefits of EVs are immediate. Forget the temporary range issue, their performance, safety, and lack of maintenance make them winners. Once in one, few will go back to noise, stink, gas stations, oil changers, tune-ups, transmission and muffler shops, for belts, timing chains, or other complexities.

There is one moving part in my Tesla "engine". And it is the rear axle itself, the motor.

Contrarians refuse to see the benefits. They are still stuck in the 20th Century.

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