March 20, 2018

Extreme winter weather, such as 'Beast from the East', can be linked to solar cycle

by University of Exeter

winter
Credit: Larisa Koshkina/public domain

Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the 'Beast from the East', could be linked to the solar cycle, pioneering new research has shown.

A new study, led by Dr Indrani Roy from the University of Exeter, has revealed when the is in its 'weaker' phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter, as well as heavy snowfall across the Eurasian sector.

The research is published in leading journal Scientific Reports, a Nature Publication, on Tuesday, 20 March 2018.

Dr Roy, form Exeter's Mathematics department said: "In spite of all other influences and complexities, it is still possible to segregate a strong influence from the sun. There are reductions of sea-ice in the Arctic and a growth in the Eurasian sector is observed in recent winters. This study shows those trends are related and current weaker solar cycle is contributing to that."

The new study observed that during periods when the winter solar Sunspot Number (SSN) falls below average, the Arctic warming extends from the lower troposphere to high up in the upper stratosphere. On the other hand there is a cooling when SSN is above average.

It explored how the 11-year solar cycle - a periodic change in the sun's activity including changes in the levels of solar UV radiation and changes in the SSNs - can be linked with the Polar vortex and Arctic Oscillation phenomenon, which affects winter Arctic and Eurasian climate.

It subsequently can influence weather conditions in Europe, including the UK, Scandinavia and Asia.

'Solar cyclic variability can modulate Arctic climate' is published in Scientific Reports.

Explore further

Warm Arctic means colder, snowier winters in northeastern US, study says
More information: Indrani Roy. Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate, Scientific Reports (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-22854-0
Journal information: Scientific Reports

Provided by University of Exeter
Citation: Extreme winter weather, such as 'Beast from the East', can be linked to solar cycle (2018, March 20) retrieved 26 April 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2018-03-extreme-winter-weather-beast-east.html
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User comments

Scroofinator
Mar 20, 2018
It explored how the 11-year solar cycle - a periodic change in the sun's activity including changes in the levels of solar UV radiation and changes in the SSNs - can be linked with the Polar vortex and Arctic Oscillation phenomenon, which affects winter Arctic and Eurasian climate


And Landscheidt's work becomes further validated...
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cantdrive85
Mar 20, 2018
Who'da thunk the sun would affect the weather?
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zenga
Mar 20, 2018
pioneering
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barakn
Mar 20, 2018
Landscheidt predicted about the ENSO cycle "The years 1995/1996 and 1998/1999 should see further positive temperature anomalies." Those years were primarily La Ninas (i.e. negative temperature anomalies) or neutral. In regards to the worldwide stock market, he predicted "The next worldwide bottom is to be expected in 1998, the coming SFS epoch." 1998 was of course during the middle of a stock market bubble. This is the only kind of crap one should expect from an astrologer with a fixation on the golden ratio. http://bourabai.k...ider.htm
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Scroofinator
Mar 20, 2018
So because his exact predictions were off, his whole underlying theory of solar forcing is invalid? You also must consider he cited numerous peer reviewed works to come to his ideas.

http://bourabai.k...cles.htm

Character assasination is the mainstreams go-to for trying to subdue new ideas, so nice form...
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greenonions1
Mar 20, 2018
scroofinator - you're referencing an astrologer on a science site???? FFS! Maybe you should channel Rasputin - ask him what his explanation is!!
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Scroofinator
Mar 20, 2018
Sure am, as this article directly applies to what he was trying to prove.

Again with the character assasination, you guys really need to pull your head out of the mainstreams ass
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SamB
Mar 20, 2018
Who'da thunk the sun would affect the weather?


Yes, I was always told it was humans... Interesting
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Parsec
Mar 21, 2018
There are lots of periodic cycles already well known. We have the Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino and La Nina, etc. They key thing about any of these cycles is that they do not add any component, either positive or negative, to the baseline global temp. That is to say, the top of the cycle and the bottom of the cycles average out in intensity over time.

The changes inflicted by humans, add a small positive effect to the baseline temp each and every year. While this amount is usually 1/20 or even less than the amount added or subtracted by natural variability, it accumulates over time. The amount added in the last 20 years is easily the amount we will see in natural variability ever. In the next 50 years this will accumulate far past the effects of any of the cycles described.
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Benni
Mar 21, 2018
It is silly having these discussions about the Sun having ANY influence on weather/climate. It has been SETTLED SCIENCE since the 1998 Holy Hockey Stick was discovered, that if the Sun were extinguished tomorrow that AGW would continue to warm the planet, AGW from all those rotting human carcasses.
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greenonions1
Mar 21, 2018
Scroofinator
Sure am, as this article directly applies to what he was trying to prove
Not the point. The point is that he is an astrologer. It is not character assassination to point out that someone promotes nonsense/pseudoscience rubbish....
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Nik_2213
Mar 21, 2018
Joke: Should we call these 'Beast from East' cold-snaps 'Putins' ??
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barakn
Mar 21, 2018
the epoch of the coming BFS in 2007 should go along with another bottom in the surface air temperatures. -T. Landscheidt

2007 was warmer than the year before and the year after, and is part of a steeply increasing trend.
http://berkeleyea...es-2017/
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snoosebaum
Mar 21, 2018
Piers Corbyn
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prpuk
Mar 21, 2018
This paper by I. Roy appears very weak in terms of correlation. The Figure 1 in the Nature Reports correlation could just as easily be spurious .
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barakn
May 09, 2018
So because his exact predictions were off, his whole underlying theory of solar forcing is invalid? -Scroof
Global climate models receive intense scrutiny over how well they've predicted climate, see for example this IPCC report http://www.ipcc.c...INAL.pdf : Why should Landscheidt's work receive any less scrutiny or hard questions? Why would you think a theory is sound if predictions made using it are almost always wide of the mark?
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barakn
May 09, 2018
You also must consider he cited numerous peer reviewed works to come to his ideas.

http://bourabai.k...cles.htm

22 citations is not exactly numerous. Three are to his own work, which is of questionable quality. One, published in the "Abstract Volume 9th International Congress of Biometeo-rology," is titled "Cycles of solar flares." Exactly how many biologists and meteorologists are qualified to review a paper on solar physics? Was it peer-reviewed at all? It looks as if he showed up at a conference and presented a paper, so they were obliged to publish it afterwards. Several other references are to Scientific American and "3ient. American" (presumably the same publication) which is not a peer-reviewed journal (and which specializes in dumbing down recent scientific advances for a general audience). Some of the other references are obscure books and low-impact journals.
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barakn
May 09, 2018
And why do you think citations of peer reviewed works is evidence of quality? Did he look for papers that might contradict his findings or did he cherry pick papers whose data happened to resemble his hand and finger cycles? Did he draw the appropriate conclusions from these works or did he mischaracterize them? Does he cite any papers that directly discuss or criticize his own work (other than citing himself of course)? Does he prefer old papers or does he go after newer work with better-quality, higher-resolution data?
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