Paris 1.5 C target may be smashed by 2026

Paris 1.5°C target may be smashed by 2026
This gif illustrates the projected paths of global temperatures with a positive and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Credit: University of New South Wales

Melbourne: Global temperatures could break through the 1.5°C barrier negotiated at the Paris conference as early as 2026 if a slow-moving, natural climate driver known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has, as suspected, moved into a positive phase.

New research published in Geophysical Research Letters by University of Melbourne scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science shows that a positive IPO would likely produce a sharp acceleration in global over the next decade.

Since 1999, the IPO has been in a negative phase but consecutive record-breaking warm years in 2014, 2015 and 2016 have led climate researchers to suggest this may have changed. In the past, these positive phases have coincided with accelerated global warming.

"Even if the IPO remains in a negative phase, our research shows we will still likely see global temperatures break through the 1.5°C guardrail by 2031," said lead author Dr Ben Henley.

"If the world is to have any hope of meeting the Paris target, governments will need to pursue policies that not only reduce emissions but remove carbon from the atmosphere."

"Should we overshoot the 1.5°C limit, we must still aim to bring global temperatures back down and stabilise them at that level or lower."

The IPO has a profound impact on our because it is a powerful lever with a lot of momentum that changes very slowly over periods of 10-30 years.

During its positive phase the ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are unusually warm and those outside this region to the north and south are often unusually cool. When the IPO enters a negative phase, this situation is reversed.

In the past, we have seen positive IPOs from 1925-1946 and again from 1977-1998. These were both periods that saw rapid increases in global average temperatures. The world experienced the reverse—a prolonged negative phase—from 1947-1976, when stalled.

A striking characteristic of the most recent 21st Century negative phase of the IPO is that on this occasion global average surface temperatures continued to rise, just at a slower rate.

"Although the Earth has continued to warm during the temporary slowdown since around 2000, the reduced rate of warming in that period may have lulled us into a false sense of security. The positive phase of the IPO will likely correct this slowdown. If so, we can expect an acceleration in in the coming decades," Dr Henley said.

"Policy makers should be aware of just how quickly we are approaching 1.5°C. The task of reducing emissions is very urgent indeed."


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Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters

Citation: Paris 1.5 C target may be smashed by 2026 (2017, May 8) retrieved 17 October 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2017-05-paris.html
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May 08, 2017
This seems so short sighted. Solar use is doubling every two years. That puts us 6 or 7 doublings away from 100%.
Fusion power is on the edge of becoming a reality.
The future will shortly do without fossil fuels.

May 08, 2017
@rderkis:
still going to be fossil fueled vehicles for a looong time, and just because GHG emissions decrease now, the future still has to deal with what has been emitted in the past, plus what we are emitting now. The gasses don't just disappear once we stop emitting.

May 08, 2017
At this rate, long before 2026, the AGW Cult will smash and exceed their record for the utter bullshit they call science

May 08, 2017
@rderkis: -- still going to be fossil fueled vehicles for a looong time.


Interesting picture I saw on ted talks. Showed a picture of NY's time square taken from way up high. Hundreds of vehicles all horse drawn with 1 car in sight. Not surprising since the horse has been with us thousands of years. What was surprising was the picture taken from same spot 13 years later with hundreds of cars and only one horse drawn carriage. How long had the car been with us at that time, a little over a decade? Of course things move much faster now.

May 08, 2017
@rderkis:The gasses don't just disappear once we stop emitting.


Sure they will. In 10 years time technology will be 1024 times more advanced than today. we will scrub the atmosphere like you do your dirty socks. ;-)

Of course then you have your conspiracy theories that say it is all a plot by martians.

May 08, 2017
Call me when Vikings have been raising dairy cattle, barley and wheat on Greenland for 400 years, more or less. Then it will be as warm as it has been, within historical times.

May 08, 2017
Call me.

Just exactly why do you figure your worth calling?
:-)

May 08, 2017
"Call me.." Oh, I'm sure you've been called... all sorts of things...

May 08, 2017
"Call me.." Oh, I'm sure you've been called... all sorts of things...

Not to my face. ;-) I am very big(360 bs) and very well trained in Okinawa and have never lost a fight. And I was in the heavy construction trade (as a geek) for 52 years. So there was plenty of fights. :-) Now at 70 I carry a glock 23 (40 cal) with lazer 24/7. Plus I have daniffs (half great dane/ half mastiffs). I sleep very well at night. :-)

May 09, 2017
"Call me.." Oh, I'm sure you've been called... all sorts of things...

Not to my face. ;-) I am very big(360 bs) and very well trained in Okinawa and have never lost a fight. And I was in the heavy construction trade (as a geek) for 52 years. So there was plenty of fights. :-) Now at 70 I carry a glock 23 (40 cal) with lazer 24/7. Plus I have daniffs (half great dane/ half mastiffs). I sleep very well at night. :-)


Your glocks will work great against ocean acidification, masses of environmental refugees from the east coast (all armed), super storms, drought, wildfires, famine, floods etc etc. You only sleep well at night because at 360lbs and 70 yo with a staunch disbelief in science, you will not be have to be around to suffer through and clean up this mess.

May 09, 2017
Your glocks will work great against

I never said plural. But I do have a Saiga 12 with a 20 round drum for a back up. Polished and ported by me so it;s highly reliable.
I don't have to outrun the bear only you, if you get my drift.
Besides doomsayer we will fix all those problems and more in 10 to 15 years.

May 10, 2017
@rderkis: -- still going to be fossil fueled vehicles for a looong time.


Interesting picture I saw on ted talks. Showed a picture of NY's time square taken from way up high. Hundreds of vehicles all horse drawn with 1 car in sight. Not surprising since the horse has been with us thousands of years. What was surprising was the picture taken from same spot 13 years later with hundreds of cars and only one horse drawn carriage. How long had the car been with us at that time, a little over a decade? Of course things move much faster now.


Don't be ridiculous. Back then, the key factor was the speed and better use/maintenance of transportation. EV will still be marginal for more than 20 years, as long as their sales will be marginal and their price, hardly affordable for low salary people. Those are numerous and will drive with old cars.
Oh, you could then ask them to stop using cars. Can they? Their answer won't be pretty to hear.

May 10, 2017
Don't be ridiculous.

Now there is a fool's remark. I simply stated a fact. How do you argue with a fact, unless of course you just want to argue.
Here is anouther RIDICULOUS statement for you to chew on."Water can be a liquid."


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