Study emphasises the human dimension of a warmer climate

May 23, 2017
climate
Credit: public domain

New research shows how reducing carbon emissions can prevent billions of people from being exposed to unheard-of changes in climate in the coming decades.

The study, published today in Nature Climate Change, emphasises the human dimension of how unusual a would appear to people living in different regions.

The research identifies a new as 'unfamiliar' if a year that is now normal would only have occurred once in an individual's lifetime, or as 'unknown' if it would have occurred once every few hundred years or more, on average.

"Overall, we found new climates emerge faster in inhabited areas, especially in the tropics, than in the world as a whole," explains lead author Professor Dave Frame from Victoria University of Wellington.

"People living in tropical regions, such as the South East Asian nations and the Pacific Islands, are almost certain to experience 'unfamiliar' or even 'unknown' climates by the end of this century if climate change is not slowed down. The situation is almost as stark for many tropical African countries too."

The emerging effects of climate change in the coming decades can be dramatically reduced with mitigation efforts, says co-author Dr Manoj Joshi of the University of East Anglia.

"Unknown climates might be expected before 2050 in many tropical areas, and before the end of the century in mid-latitude areas.

"However, many people alive today could reap the benefits of slowing or stopping climate change. Projections of twenty-first century climate made with significantly reduced show that tropical climates, especially those areas with very high populations, can avoid such emergence, staying far more 'familiar' to the people who live there."

Avoiding the emergence of unfamiliar or unknown climates helps societies to better adapt to climate change, adds co-author Dr Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading.

"Some amount of warming is inevitable. However, keeping climate within some bounds of familiarity mean that people can adapt more easily to whatever change does arrive."

Professor Frame says reducing emissions now does a huge amount to keep climates more familiar than they would otherwise become. "Many of the beneficiaries of mitigation include today's young adults, people already working, paying taxes and, where institutions permit, voting. As this becomes understood, it has the potential to be a powerful motivating factor."

Explore further: Early climate 'payback' with higher emission reductions

More information: Dave Frame et al. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates, Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3297

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12 comments

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Bart_A
1.7 / 5 (11) May 23, 2017
We should be honest. While there may be some drawbacks to an overall warmer climate (if that will even be the case), there will be millions if not billions of persons benefitting from such a climate as well. That should be part of what is presented.

Shootist
1.8 / 5 (5) May 23, 2017
Study emphasises the human dimension of a warmer climate


Dairy farms on Greenland for 400 years (CE850-CE1250).
Vineyards in Scotland during the Roman Warm Period and again (assuming there was actually a hiatus) during the Medieval Climate Optimum. Vineyards in Scandinavia and Newfoundland during Medieval Climate Optimum.
Guy_Underbridge
4.4 / 5 (7) May 23, 2017
While there may be some drawbacks to an overall warmer climate...

and
...dairy farms on Greenland for 400 years


...and everyone south of Tulsa is forced to move to Saskatchewan.

"Five percent of the people think;
ten percent of the people think they think;
and the other eighty-five percent would rather die than think."
― Thomas A. Edison

EmceeSquared
4.3 / 5 (6) May 23, 2017
That is not honest. There might be a few people benefiting for a while, mainly oil/gas corp execs and their heirs, as civilization collapses and the mass extinctions already underway start to include homo "sapiens". But being "balanced" doesn't require including lies with the truth.

Bart_A:
We should be honest.

EmceeSquared
4.2 / 5 (5) May 23, 2017
Civilization collapse and mass extinctions.

Shootist:
Dairy

antigoracle
1.7 / 5 (6) May 23, 2017
Hmmm.... I wish these AGW Cult "scientists" would tell us what is familiar and known climate and where and when did it occur.
EmceeSquared
4.3 / 5 (6) May 23, 2017
Of course these actual scientists do tell us, as is reported in the 3rd sentence of this article:
"The research identifies a new climate as 'unfamiliar' if a year that is now normal would only have occurred once in an individual's lifetime, or as 'unknown' if it would have occurred once every few hundred years or more, on average."

You can't even read the article because you're in the climate denial cult. Or just paid by the denial industry, or both. You're the very definition of a troll: not interested in the facts or the discussion, only in conflict, provoking flames.

antigoracle
Hmmm....

antigoracle
1.7 / 5 (6) May 23, 2017
LMAO....What is normal climate? When and where did it last occur?
You Chicken Littles are so incapable of independent thought that you would gulp down the utter bullshit the Cult feeds you and exclaim this "science" tastes so good.

The 1930s was witness to the most extreme weather in modern history. Was that normal? Were humans responsible for that?
jackmurdock
3.9 / 5 (7) May 23, 2017
Of course these actual scientists do tell us, as is reported in the 3rd sentence


Don't bother arguing, antigoracle is just a chat bot. You already know what it will say and how it will respond. You wouldn't try to convince an industrial robot arm to not pick up the box in front of it because you know it is pointless. You can either ignore it or go after it's programming.
EmceeSquared
5 / 5 (4) May 23, 2017
Thanks for the advice. But I can also paint a yellow/black "CAUTION" stripe around the trollbot to warn other readers. I enjoy briefly thinking through what's so wrong with these trollbots - keeping the human edge over the A"I".

jackmurdock:
Don't bother

EmceeSquared
5 / 5 (3) May 23, 2017
You can see that even when the answer to the troll's question is posted at them, because they did not read the article (even to its 3rd sentence), they will troll in committed ignorance.

Climate trolls also refuse to admit humans created the 1930s Dust Bowl. The refused to admit humans caused or could fix the Ozone Hole, but rejecting these trolls allowed us who accept science to let it heal.

antigoracle:
LMAO

leetennant
not rated yet May 24, 2017
We should be honest. While there may be some drawbacks to an overall warmer climate (if that will even be the case), there will be millions if not billions of persons benefitting from such a climate as well. That should be part of what is presented.



Yeah, those three weeks will be amazing for those people. And they say we have no capacity for long-term strategic outlook.

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