The future car is driverless, shared and electric

March 16, 2017 by Mollie D'agostino

The nation's top transportation experts see rapid change in transportation as a result of three major technology revolutions: shared, electric and automated vehicles. That's according to a survey by the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis. The group also released a set of policy briefs, described below, which were guest-authored by leading transportation policy experts. 

Forty policymakers, researchers, and representatives from government, nonprofit organizations and the technology and auto industries participated in the survey, which was developed in connection with the launch of ITS-Davis' new policy initiative, 3 Revolutions: Sharing, Electrification and Automation.

"For the first time in half a century, real, transformative innovations are coming to the world of passenger transportation," said Dan Sperling, director of ITS-Davis and the new 3 Revolutions policy initiative. "This survey shows us that without thoughtful collaboration and community-facing policies, these changes would lead to increased inequities, vehicle travel and . We need to be creative in order to steer these innovations to the public interest." 

The 3 Revolutions Policy Initiative addresses the big policy questions related to these new technologies, and the partnerships needed to bring the greatest social and market benefit.

Survey highlights 

  • Seventy percent of survey participants think fully driverless vehicles will account for more than 20 percent of vehicles sold by 2040.
  • Eighty-eight percent think commercially offered shared rides will make up more than 5 percent of all U.S. passenger miles by 2030, and 78 percent think commercially offered shared rides will account for more than 20 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled by 2040.
  • Seventy percent also think that by 2050, the majority of vehicles used commercially for ride and car sharing in the nation will be zero-emission vehicles, including battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell electric vehicles. 

Almost all of the survey participants selected California as the state most likely to embrace all three transportation trends. 

When respondents were asked to specify which companies are best positioned to capitalize on the revolution in autonomous, shared and electric vehicles, 67 percent listed Google, 64 percent named Tesla and Uber, and 48 percent chose Lyft and General Motors.

"The results of this survey suggest that disruptive technologies are coming from both inside and outside automotive," said Peter Kosak, executive director, Urban Mobility at General Motors. "In the end, partnerships—including working relationships with governments and communities—are likely essential to a rapid and successful transition."

Policies could help avoid inequalities and emissions

Without policy actions, 77 percent of survey respondents said that the benefits of shared, will not be evenly distributed across income levels, and 80 percent said that sales of automated vehicles will result in more greenhouse gas emissions.

"The state of California has programs in place to fully support the rapid transition of the vehicle fleet to zero-emission vehicles, both battery electric and fuel cell," said Richard W. Corey, executive officer of the California Air Resources Board. "This new underscores the need for the state to continue to work closely with research institutions like ITS-Davis and others. We will have a growing need for robust data and analysis to develop the incentives and programs needed to ensure that the inevitable shift to driverless cars and more shared-transportation choices works hand-in-glove with the expanding zero-emission market to help California achieve our climate and air quality goals."

Explore further: Government initiative needed to boost electric vehicle use

More information: The policy briefs are available online: 3rev.ucdavis.edu/policybriefs/

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Jeffhans1
not rated yet Mar 16, 2017
Driverless cars give you all of that commute time to use as you wish. Time is money has never been more apt. People will use it to play their favorite games, catch up on movies or shows, complete work or as a portable gym with built in surround sound.
antialias_physorg
5 / 5 (2) Mar 16, 2017
Driverless cars give you all of that commute time to use as you wish. Time is money has never been more apt. People will use it to play their favorite game...

I hope it comes with a "take me around the block"-feature when I haven't finished the level in time.
barakn
4 / 5 (4) Mar 16, 2017
I, for one, will be gripping the dashboard tightly and will be unable to perform other useful tasks because I trust no other driver besides myself. Compounded by the fact that my route will be longer because the car will be full of people who need to be dropped off at other locations.
gkam
1 / 5 (4) Mar 16, 2017
We can all think of horror scenarios. But it does not look like we will stop this progression.

I suggest we just work it out.
antialias_physorg
5 / 5 (1) Mar 16, 2017
I trust no other driver besides myself.

Do you also do that when you ride a train, bus, subway, airplane or take a boat ride? Especially in planes and on ships you're trusting autopilots for most of the time (and in some cities' subway systems there aren't any drivers anymore, either)

This stuff has already been part of your life for longer than you know.
barakn
3 / 5 (2) Mar 16, 2017
The bigger the box or tube I'm riding in, the less I worry. And for these larger means of conveyance, the "drivers" (engineers, pilots, captains, etc.) generally need to have more training and are tested more rigorously than the drivers of ordinary cars.
ursiny33
5 / 5 (1) Mar 16, 2017
How is driverless technology going to make up the trillion dollars states collect in registration licensing and fuel taxes in the future. Or the 500 billion dollars spent on insurance
gkam
1 / 5 (4) Mar 17, 2017
My EV is licensed. Do you think they will allow any unlicensed driverless car?

Maybe they will have software locks of some kind.
Captain Stumpy
3 / 5 (2) Mar 17, 2017
@STOLEN VALOR LIAR-kam
My EV is licensed. Do you think they will allow any unlicensed driverless car?
http://www.dol.wa...tudy.pdf

https://www.dmv.c.../2012_19

https://www.aaafo...date.pdf

https://www.dmv.c.../2014_29

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