Freezing in record lows? You may doubt global warming, says scientist

Motorists navigate winter weather in New Hampshire
Utah State University scientist Peter Howe says your local weather conditions may influence what you think about climate change. In a new study with colleagues from Boston University, The George Washington University and the University of Oxford, Howe reports Americans experiencing record low temperatures may be doubtful of global warming. Credit: Mark Buckawicki.

If you're shivering from unusually teeth-rattling cold this holiday season, global warming is probably the last thing on your mind.

"The local weather conditions people experience likely play a role in what they think about the broader climate," says Utah State University researcher Peter Howe. "Climate change is causing record-breaking heat around the world, but the variability of the climate means that some places are still reaching record-breaking cold. If you're living in a place where there's been more record cold weather than record heat lately, you may doubt reports of ."

Howe says people's beliefs about climate change are driven by many factors, but a new study in which he participated suggests weather events in your own backyard may be an important influence.

With colleagues Robert Kaufmann, Sucharita Gopal, Jackie Liederman, Xiaojing Tang and Michelle Gilmore of Boston University; Michael Mann of The George Washington University and Felix Pretis of the University of Oxford, Howe published findings in the Dec. 19, 2016, Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Howe, assistant professor of human-environment geography in USU's Department of Environment and Society and the USU Ecology Center, generated the public opinion dataset used in the analysis. The collected information is based on a statistical model of more than 12,000 survey respondents across the nation from 2008 to 2013 collected by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication and George Mason Center for Climate Change Communication.

"We found that places with more record high temperatures than lows have more residents who believe the planet is warming," he says. "Conversely, in places with more record low temperatures, more people tend to doubt ."

The study notes part of this dichotomy may be because early terminology used to describe climate change suggested the earth was simply warming, rather than changing in innumerable but measurable ways.

Utah State University geographer Peter Howe
Peter Howe, a human-environment geographer at Utah State University, is part of a multi-institution team that investigated Americans' beliefs about climate change. The team found local weather events influence people's about global warming. Credit: Mary-Ann Muffoletto/Utah State University.
"One of the greatest challenges to communicating scientific findings about climate change is the cognitive disconnect between local and global events," says Mann, one of Howe's partners in the study. "It's easy to assume that what you experience at home must be happening elsewhere."

The scientists note the importance of differentiating between weather, the temperatures of a relatively short period of time, such as a season, and climate, the average temperature over a period of 25 or 30 years. Emphasizing the different between weather and climate may help the scientific community more effectively explain climate change, they say.

Climate change skepticism may hinge on personal experience
In dark red counties, record high temperatures are more recent and predict that people would believe that the globe is warming, and they do. On the other side, dark blue counties show record low temperatures are more recent and predicted people would be skeptical, and, again, that was found to be the case. Credit: Robert Kaufmann
"Our work highlights some of the challenges of communicating about climate change, and the importance of situating people's experiences at the local level within the larger global context," Howe says.

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More information: Robert K. Kaurmann, et. al. "Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism," PNAS. 19 Dec 2016. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1607032113
Citation: Freezing in record lows? You may doubt global warming, says scientist (2016, December 19) retrieved 25 June 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2016-12-lows-global-scientist.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
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Dec 19, 2016
When it is warm, global warming is to blame.
When it is mild, it's global warming.
When it's frigid, it's global warming.

In fact, whatever the weather, it is a sign of global warming.

We are advised that the weather has nothing to do with climate, while we are told that global warming is causing all manner of weather.

Climate, off it can be measured at all, is the aggregate of temperatures every day.

If you never see unusually hot weather, but you continue to see unusually cool weather, how does that mean global warming?

We just have to take it on faith, I guess. But science as religion is fundamentally wrong.

Dec 19, 2016
Global warning is a term derived by an individual who knew nothing about the climate but since he was a public figure, the media took off with the terminology. From a scientific perspective, adding energy to a system will cause the systems entropy to rise and hence the weather patterns to fluctuate more. This can cause systems to vary from hot to low temps more severely. In either case, humanity is impacting its environment in some shape or form. The fact that we don't understand the impact should be the concern.

Dec 19, 2016
"But science as religion is fundamentally wrong."
----------------------------
Religion masquerading as science is worse.

Dec 19, 2016
No, you take science as a report of evidence as it is to hand, not a faith. Acceptance of something, either facts or concepts without rigorous logic is faith.

Do you question the cause of Zika because you can't experience first hand evidence of the virus? Why is it that climate science is constantly in question by the public and yet material science, as an example, isn't? They both use the same procedures for gathering evidence, for testing, for discrimination of error, for reporting, for mathematically describing observations and theory.... Logic would dictate that climate science is wrong as many times as bridges fail.

Dec 19, 2016
If its cold here its probably hot somewhere else to offset it. What matters is current average temperature over the entire globe. Or total heat content iow.

Dec 19, 2016
LOL
GloBull Warming now with 100% more bull.

Dec 19, 2016
Another phony scientist making idiotic comparisons with no evidence to support the AGW fraud.

Dec 19, 2016
"But science as religion is fundamentally wrong."
----------------------------
Religion masquerading as science is worse.


The two are indistinguishable.

Dec 19, 2016
Why is it that climate science is constantly in question by the public and yet material science, as an example, isn't?


Because material sciences can be actually verified, whereas climate models can't - until 30-100 years later when it actually happens, and since acting on the prediction changes the outcome, or not, the original prediction becomes un-falsifiable. You don't have an experiment to test it.

With climate change you're ultimately asked to do drastic measures that are likely to send hundreds of millions if not billions of people into poverty or even death, and your justification for the atrocities you're about to commit by forcefully controlling whole nations' economies is the idea that otherwise an even greater tragedy would fall on humanity.

It is like the the early bolshevists in excuse of their violence: they were so cock sure that Marxist theories about the class struggle were correct that it justified murder to save the people from capitalism.

Dec 19, 2016
Eikka, your above post is one of the best I've ever seen in this chatroom. It is succinct & so unambiguous in it's simplistic honesty while absent all the overindulgent sarcasm that is so frequently displayed here.

Dec 19, 2016
@Eikka:
Your knowledge of history is woefully lacking and your rant against reversing an impending global calamity is dismaying. The Russian Revolution was not based on Marxist doctrine, instead it unleashed a free-for-all killing spree where civilians were cut down by marauding horsemen raping and pillaging the countryside. Karl Marx did not in any way advocate that. After the intelligentsia's usefulness as a tool to foment dissatisfaction among the populace was no longer needed, they were summarily dispatched. Russia has only had fascism and one of the worst histories of human rights abuse. In the name of Democracy, the United States killed three million Southeast Asians, many of whom were women and children who had no political ax to grind.
A third of the polar bear population will disappear because of melting ice. Already, coastal towns in Florida and the Chesapeake Bay are having to deal with flooding. Millions of people die from air pollution every year.

Dec 19, 2016
The trouble is that as anyone tries to say "let's not get too hasty about this", they get thrown in the same pile with the deniers.

The people who believe climate change also seem to believe that its avoidance costs nothing, or they count their winnings in advance going "well, if I pay more now then I don't have to pay more later".

But, if what you paid now doesn't actually do anything then you've just paid twice. For example, the rush to erect tons of wind turbines on taxpayer money, which may or may not end up solving any part of the issue.

Dec 19, 2016
The Russian Revolution was not based on Marxist doctrine


I was rather remembering the experiences of Karl Popper who was a Marxist in Germany in his youth and observed the violence on the street level.

He recounted that the word was the inevitable class war between the proletariat and the capitalists would end up with more people dead, so acts of terrorism and ultimately a bloody revolution was justified on the point that it would be the lesser of two evils.

If the people believed that, it's no wonder a violent fascist takeover of the society became possible. The lesson from the history is that what ends up happening doesn't necessarily have any connection with what your intent was, or what your theory was - just that there exists this mentality of "Revolution now!" and the first party to capitalize on that wins.

In Russia it was the communist party, in Germany it was Hitler.

Dec 19, 2016
Science is based upon faith -- belief in the message, or word, of another (dictionary). Empirical. Mathematical. Hence," Mathematics is the language with which God has written the universe." (Galileo). Weather mathematics is way beyond us --'chaos theory'. Temperature is one aspect of weather and in so far as the old 'blackbody' thermodynamics holds good for various items being warmed by candles etc., attempts can be made upon temperature prediction. These attempts immediately become farcical when the facts of the complexity of the system are factored in. We are not simple 'blackbody' and by ignoring that obvious fact, the 'climate scientists' have defined themselves as idiots. How did they get it so wrong? By lack of faith. Lack of believing God, who has things to say about climate. Lack of believing science, which has things to say about the geologic past, nuclear fusion, turbidity, quantum energy transmission ........ . They have played God, and hence, played the fool.

Dec 19, 2016
Germany's working class in the 1930's was heading toward a strong united worker's movement. With the support of American industrialists like Henry Ford and Edison, Hitler represented an opposing fascist force that would inhibit another Russian type of revolution in Europe. The same industrialists gave financial support to the ruthless Franco in Spain. German Communists were never as violent as Hitler's Brown Shirts and the subsequent destruction of all of Europe. Lenin was never a Communist but an admirer of Western-style industry and wanted to bring a backward Russia up to date as an industrial power. The exploited workers became exploited once again. As a result of all of this industry in full throttle over two centuries, the earth is paying the price.

Dec 19, 2016
AGW Cult settled "science".

It's freezing, that's weather.
It's hot in the middle of summer, well that's GloBull warming.
Run for the hills Chicken Littles....run....

Dec 19, 2016
Telekinetic Naw as Al. G. and the others have surmised, the revolutions were the result of effective glowbull. Now with 100% more glow.

Dec 19, 2016
The Walking Left is compelled to infect everyone with their climate doomsday malware. Hopefully the new president will create a safe space for America by not funding fake climate science.

Dec 19, 2016
"The local weather conditions people experience likely play a role in what they think about the broader climate," says Utah State University researcher Peter Howe. "

wow thats genius !

Dug
Dec 19, 2016
There aren't any anthropogenic environmental impacts that are not compounded by too many humans on the planet - most are in direct relationship to human overpopulation, some are actually amplified by over population. When I hear the ACC and AGW movement offer some concrete plans to reduce the human population and deal with all the related consequences (economics, etc.) and their impacts - then I will consider their concerns regarding climate change and related anthropogenic impacts to be genuine. Until then, it's really hard to take their concerns seriously as they are milking the symptoms rather than treating the cause.

Dec 19, 2016
how does the earth cool , i mean there is lots of research going into how it might warm but little it seems on how it gets cold , complicating issues i can think of , the tropopause is not smooth as it is shown on GW sites, there is the tropic bulge and lots of currents and then very calm at the poles , there is the annual co2 build in the arctic from plant decay [ isn't that lucky ?]

Dec 19, 2016
The trouble is that as anyone tries to say "let's not get too hasty about this", they get thrown in the same pile with the deniers....


It is so rare to hear what you just said, but its so true. Look at what's going on with Duterte in the Philippines, he's talking about daily executions. Why? The war on drugs. A free market force, drug demand, and look at the levels they are going to. But at least there's some market argument in a sober country performing better. However can you imagine if there was a drug that truly boosted mental performance, with no immediate downsides? To the extent where countries who legalized it economically outperformed countries who didn't? Such a drug would be the analogy of fossil fuels. Can you imagine the crackdown that would be needed to keep that in check? The American right certainly can, and has been, thus the denial. But If you're not taking this account, you're not seeing the difficulty of the problem.

Dec 20, 2016
When it is warm, global warming is to blame.
When it is mild, it's global warming.
When it's frigid, it's global warming.

In fact, whatever the weather, it is a sign of global warming.

.


This is all just stupid straw man; scientists in general, especially climate scientists, are not blaming global warming on specific weather events as, obviously, they generally know the difference between weather and climate. Please don't insult our intelligence.

Dec 20, 2016


...are not blaming global warming on specific weather events ,....

missedit;
I said that back-to-front and that should have been:
"...are not blaming specific weather events on global warming..."

Dec 20, 2016
Lenin was never a Communist but an admirer of Western-style industry and wanted to bring a backward Russia up to date as an industrial power.


Now that is a statement that deserves a dunce hat and a tall chair in the corner.

Lenin was one of the key people who came to define communism, through Marxism-Leninism which advanced the key philosophical concepts of Marx, such as Dialectical Materialism, dictatorship of the proletariat, etc.

The whole point of communism was divided between the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks who were basically described as Statists and Anarchists - or "make it happen" and "let it happen". The basic idea already contained the eventual revolution, as in if you keep adding degrees of heat to water nothing will happen for a long time until it suddenly starts to boil. It was merely a question of when and how, and that's where Lenin came in with his revolutionary vanguard communism.

Dec 20, 2016
"........climate scientists, are not blaming global warming on specific weather events as, obviously, they generally know the difference between weather and climate. "

Good. Now they will stop insulting everyone's intelligence and stop garbaging on about carbon. The climate of the northern, Arctic regions was probably never warmer since the last ice age than it was 7,000 yrs ago -- the Arctic Sea was close on ice-free. (SCIENCEDAILY Oct. 20, 2008). CO2 by ice core little more than half current level.
Middle East and Sahara went from partly fertile grazing country to current status whilst CO2 was significantly lower (by ice core) than now.
Climate disproves CO2 'climate science' before we even begin.


Dec 20, 2016
"........climate scientists, are not blaming global warming on specific weather events as, obviously, they generally know the difference between weather and climate. "

Good. Now they will stop insulting everyone's intelligence and stop garbaging on about carbon.


They never did insult our intelligence and man made global warming is a proven scientific fact as it is producing the predicted and observed unique CO2 warming signature (in the stratosphere) that cannot be explained by natural (non-CO2) causes;

https://www.skept...ming.htm

"...
Satellite measurements show that the troposphere is warming
The stratosphere is cooling as predicted by anthropogenic global warming theory (this cannot be explained by solar variability)
..."

Dec 20, 2016
team that investigated Americans' beliefs about climate change

The AGW Cult is striving for full Church status as reality continues to defy their wish for doom and gloom.

Dec 20, 2016
Climate history will provide a balanced perspective. In the last 2.5 million years, I understand that there have been, roughly, 50 ice ages and interglacial periods. I don't believe an accounting of all the natural and abnormal events has been completed. So before we jump to conclusions about global warming, historical climate change needs to be better understood and explained to the general public.

Dec 20, 2016
@Eikka
You're misled by the false labeling of regimes that call themselves communist, typical of one who can't read between the lines of the propaganda generated by the protectors of capitalism.
Lenin was aristocratic and was chauffeured in a Rolls Royce. He was also opportunistic by using the guise of Communism while his true agenda was capital-driven industry. Red Chinese leaders are corrupted by money under the flag of Communism. When you tell the common working man that his efforts are for the good of the State, you have him by the short hairs. The world has never seen a country under true Communism, or genuine Democracy for that matter.


Dec 20, 2016
Telekinetic, Eikka tends to be mislead by many things.

Dec 20, 2016
snoose, that is correct: We have destabilized a set of complex systems and it now oscillates like a disturbed spinning top, and will eventually reach another equilibrium. That stable state may not be to our liking, . . or good for our survival.

Read Catastrophe Theory for the information on stable states and the risk we run.

Dec 20, 2016
i know about chaos theory , but did we give it a big enough kick? we need to define normal, 500 yrs 5k 50k ?

and there was snow in algeria a yr ago [ fun watch] https://www.youtu...GN--R4pE

Dec 20, 2016
I do I do, we are in a geological warming trend that started in the 50s. Its almost over. Unfortunately that is when the global alarmists started recording temperatures. Japan had to move where they were recording their temperatures for years, because it was showing cooling and the liberals were panicking.

Dec 20, 2016
Mr. Howe, have you considered the possibility that we may be entering glacial inception? As of 2016 the Holocene is precisely 11,719 years old. Or 219 years older than exactly half the current precession cycle (23,000/2=11,500) and ~10,000 years peak obliquity. Only 1 interglacial in the past million years has lasted longer than about half a precession cycle, and none carried interglacial warmth longer than about 5kyrs past peak obliquity.

Geologic slang for glacial inception is "the climatic madhouse."

Given the short 1k character limit, I will place a few other posts with quotes/citations to papers you may wish to peruse.

Dec 20, 2016
Apparently quotations with links to the scholarly papers are considered spam here at phys.org. So it looks like I cannot post actual out-takes from the literature here. First site I have ever encountered this.

Dec 21, 2016
Humy, It is a proven scientific fact that fixation of nitrogen in soil, if unchecked, will kill off vast areas of vegetation. Nitrogen excess is fatal to vegetation. Therefore, we need to begin exterminating legumes in areas where soil nitrogen is at its upper acceptable limit.

My first two sentences are obviously correct. My second sentence is correct if one believes this world was set up by a clown, and science equals investigation of a circus.
If 'climate scientists' will not read a history text in combination with icecore palaeocarbon analyses, they have relegated themselves to the clown's department.

Dec 21, 2016
Ahh, should read, "My first two sentences are obviously correct. My THIRD sentence is correct if one believes this world was set up by a clown, and science equals investigation of a circus.

You can think. What if the measured effect of CO2 is correct --- but some other factor comes into play and enables the climate to remain livable? As geologic history shows must have happened? The only clowning going on is courtesy of men, not their Creator.


Dec 21, 2016
Apparently quotations with links to the scholarly papers are considered spam here at phys.org. So it looks like I cannot post actual out-takes from the literature here. First site I have ever encountered this.

There's a moratorium on links from newbies because the typical newbie that immediately wants to start posting links is a spammer.

Dec 21, 2016
"What if the measured effect of CO2 is correct --- but some other factor comes into play and enables the climate to remain livable?"
----------------------------

Are you counting on that?

It is MY world you are affecting.

Dec 21, 2016
For some people, the violin will play all the way down to the ocean floor!

Dec 22, 2016
gkam Yes. We can count on it. I can assure you on the sure testimony of three unassailable witnesses. 1). The geologic record -- stupendous quantities of carbon gases were processed through our one atmosphere (of the order of something like 12 CO2 atmospheres!). No way could climate be governed by carbon gases under those 'loose canon' mega carbon circumstances. 2). Modern physics --- we now can see the way it could have been done. 3). The advice of the Creator of the (super technology) climate governance system involved --climate advice in the Bible. The three witnesses are one. I report on-line, "Climate Moderation Magnetic Interaction Sun - Earth". My climate monograph has been near top on GOOGLE (Australia) for a decade, under the search, "Climate Moderation". YOUR world has been kept livable to some degree, 4 thou. mill. yrs, against all the odds. Hence we are not space junk and will not become a blasted ruin like all other known planets. We can now glimpse the technology.

Dec 22, 2016
Lots'a words, daypl2.

All promises. It worked for Trump, but that is not science.

Dec 22, 2016
gkam You couldn't see a fact if it rose up from a grave and hit you between the eyes with a piece of 3 x 4, could you? The glaring facts of the past, the present, and the future -- documented, published, on - line, so that a juvenile can see them -- they mean nothing? Instead, you will find facts by opposing (irrationally) some politician somewhere? Bomb the STORMONT and save good old Ireland? I'll try a repeat.
The climate of the northern, Arctic regions was probably never warmer since the last ice age than it was 7,000 yrs ago -- the Arctic Sea was close on ice-free. (SCIENCEDAILY Oct. 20, 2008). CO2 by ice core little more than half current level.
Middle East and Sahara went from partly fertile grazing country to current status whilst CO2 was significantly lower (by ice core) than now.
Climate disproves CO2 'climate science' before we even begin.


Dec 22, 2016
This comment has been removed by a moderator.

Dec 22, 2016
Dear Global Warming 'scientist';
Once you conspired to manipulate data to suit your agenda, your theory became suspect.
Once you manipulated data to suit your agenda, your theory was discounted.
When you proclaimed that 'the science is settled', you became a laughing stock.
By labeling critical thinkers as 'deniers' you have lost the last shred of credibility you had.
Now that you are grasping at the last straws to 'prove' yourselves, you have proven yourselves as fools.
If this was a laughing matter, you would be an endless source of hilarity.
We are no longer amused.

Your consensus is an illusion.

Dec 22, 2016
Hey Big Bird, if you were a scientist, you'd be in the 3%.



Dec 24, 2016
fake news
http://www.cbc.ca....3385175


Why are you comparing a news item from 31st December 2015 regarding the temperature at the north pole with the current weather in Canada?

Not only are you a year out you're also comparing two different locations. You do realise that the North pole isn't in Canada don't you?

Dec 24, 2016
https://www.thegu...ientists
true but the MSM especially the cbc are pushing the same story now [ ie a buoy is showing 0 degree @ the pole ] [ was the story on 'world news' just a few days ago ]


Dec 24, 2016
and here is the arctic buoy data

http://iabp.apl.w...ily.html

cept we can't see it , need Dat. file reader , which i can download along with some malware

and the tip of ellesmere is very close to the pole , it would have to be one hell 'ava temp gradient

Dec 24, 2016
and here is the arctic buoy data

http://iabp.apl.w...ily.html

cept we can't see it , need Dat. file reader , which i can download along with some malware

and the tip of ellesmere is very close to the pole , it would have to be one hell 'ava temp gradient


Buoy data showing air temp of 0c

http://iabp.apl.w...8480#top

.dat files are just plain text, open it with notepad.

Alert is 508 miles from the North Pole, not very close.

Dec 24, 2016
theres something wrong with those buoys , pick and choose one that fits http://iabp.apl.w...ble.html]http://iabp.apl.w...ble.html[/url]

norway http://iabp.apl.w...ble.html]http://iabp.apl.w...ble.html[/url]

and norway https://www.yr.no...roj=3575

and once again ;https://weather.g...x_e.html

so theres a hot spot right over the pole with cold all round and its dark

Jan 01, 2017
naa i think it's just the lack of your own capacity in understanding scientific evidence ;)

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