What the ancient CO2 record may mean for future climate change

October 24, 2016, UC Davis
Scientists used fossilized plants, like this seed fern, to reconstruct the ancient atmospheric CO2 record from more than 300 million years ago. Credit: William DiMichele/Smithsonian Institution

The last time Earth experienced both ice sheets and carbon dioxide levels within the range predicted for this century was a period of major sea level rise, melting ice sheets and upheaval of tropical forests.

The repeated restructuring of tropical forests at the time played a major role in driving climate cycles between cooler and warmer periods, according to a study led by the University of California, Davis and published today in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Using fossilized leaves and soil-formed minerals, the international team of researchers reconstructed the ancient atmospheric carbon dioxide record from 330 to 260 million years ago, when ice last covered Earth's polar regions and large rainforests expanded throughout the tropics, leaving as their signature the world's coal resources.

The team's deep-time reconstruction reveals previously unknown fluctuations of atmospheric carbon dioxide at levels projected for the 21st century and highlights the potential impact the loss of tropical forests can have on climate.

Climate Change Feeding Off Itself

"We show that climate change not only impacts plants but that plants' responses to climate can in turn impact climate change itself, making for amplified and in many cases unpredictable outcomes," said lead author Isabel Montañez, a Chancellor's Leadership Professor with UC Davis Department of Earth and Planetary Science. "Most of our estimates for future carbon dioxide levels and climate do not fully take into consideration the various feedbacks involving forests, so current projections likely underestimate the magnitude of carbon dioxide flux to the atmosphere."

Similarly to how oceans have served as the primary carbon sink in the recent past, tropical forests 300 million years ago stored massive amounts of carbon dioxide during these ancient glacial periods. The study indicates that repeated shifts in in response to climate change were enough to account for the 100 to 300 parts per million changes in carbon dioxide estimated during the of the period.

A cross section of a fossilized Psaronius tree fern. Credit: Jonathan Wilson/Haverford College

While plant biologists have been studying how different trees and crops respond to increasing carbon dioxide levels, this study is one of the first to show that when plants change the way they function as CO2 rises or falls, it can have major impact, even to the point of extinction.

"We see great resilience in vegetation to climatic changes, millions of years of stable composition and structure despite glacial-interglacial cycles," said co-author William DiMichele, a paleobiologist with the Smithsonian Institution. "But we've come to understand that there are thresholds that, when crossed, can be accompanied by rapid and irreversible biological change."

Co-leading author Jenny McElwain, professor of paleobiology at University College in Dublin, Ireland, said the study indicates that shifts in atmospheric carbon dioxide impacted plant groups differently.

"The forest giants of the period were hit particularly hard because they were the most inefficient of all the plants around at the time, likely losing water like open hose pipes" McElwain said. "Their forest competitors, like tree ferns, were able to outcompete them as the climate dried."

Background: Unprecedented Rise of CO2

Over the past million years, has been generally low and fluctuated predictably within a window of 200 to 300 ppm. This, the researchers explain, has sustained the current icehouse - a time marked by continental ice at the polar regions - under which humans have evolved. This trend has been abruptly interrupted by the pronounced rise of over the past 100 years to the current level of 401 ppm—one not seen on Earth for at least the past 3.5 million years.

The current unprecedented rate of rising atmospheric CO2 raises concerns about melting ice sheets, rising sea level, major , and biodiversity loss - all of which were evident more than 300 million years, the only other time in Earth's history when high CO2 accompanied ice at the .

Explore further: El Nino drives fastest annual increase on record of carbon dioxide

More information: Climate, pCO2 and terrestrial carbon cycle linkages during late Palaeozoic glacial–interglacial cycles, Nature Geoscience, nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/ngeo2822

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8 comments

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freeiam
1 / 5 (5) Oct 24, 2016
Unpredictable, so we should not change the current state which is a small CO2 increase per year, if we do change - by reducing CO2 output - it will have a chaotic result (like 2000 parts a million CO2 or 50).
A second order change is a change as well.
By the way I wonder when historic ppm records like 3000ppm (nice tropic world) cannot be googled anymore...
Dale Cutler
3 / 5 (2) Oct 24, 2016
Contrary to what right-wing Christian climate change deniers in the US appear to believe, it seems that the Bible – and in particular, the Carpenter from Galilee – speaks to climate change. It also seems unlikely that it is going to get better. The "distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves" of Luke 21:25 describes climate change well, with rising sea levels and weather extremes, although he may be referring to tsunamis, or both. Some megacryometeors may be a result of climate change, so it would not be a surprise if they became more frequent (cf. Revelation 16:21). Bloody red algae blooming seas, fire, floods and famines are also mentioned – earthquakes, too. Since big bang cosmology's telling us that space and time(!) had a beginning fits so nicely with Genesis 1:1*, I'm inclined to believe more of the Book, as well, and it says we live in a dying world.
Dale Cutler
2.5 / 5 (4) Oct 24, 2016
Given the brokenness of people (all of us) and the corruption in and ineptitude of governments – first and third world, it doesn't seem likely that climate change is fixable, even if it were all anthropogenic. And any global financial, geopolitical or geophysical disaster could effectively scrap any political and unenforceable agreements.

But, counterintuitively, perhaps, the most frequent mandate in the Bible is "Don't be afraid" (or one of its several variations, e.g., "Fret not" and "Be anxious for nothing"). That would include not being anxious about climate change and terrorism. Father is in control, like it or not. It would be better to like it. Also counterintuitive, perhaps: he is a loving – and lovable – Father.

Dale Cutler
1 / 5 (2) Oct 24, 2016


*Incidentally (or not), the sequence of 'days' in Genesis 1 is correct, too.
reasons dot org/blogs/take-two/let-there-be-light
hanterp
5 / 5 (4) Oct 25, 2016

But, counterintuitively, perhaps, the most frequent mandate in the Bible is "Don't be afraid" (or one of its several variations, e.g., "Fret not" and "Be anxious for nothing"). That would include not being anxious about climate change and terrorism. Father is in control, like it or not. It would be better to like it. Also counterintuitive, perhaps: he is a loving – and lovable – Father.


I think the bible can't help in solving the problem of climate change. It is a political thing. And as long as politics believe that a 2 degrees Celsius rise is okay, then we are on the wrong track.
Economics still has the highest priority and in my opinion that is wrong.
What is the use of "good economics" if that means that we get huge floods on one part of the world and droughts in others? Economics will go down with such catastrofes. You can better pay a lot of money now to prevent these catastrofes than pay if it is too late.

JohnDonohue
5 / 5 (1) Oct 26, 2016
Ice-core readings are not sensitive. They can't spot quick spikes in CO2, say over 80 years, and the further back you go, the less sensitive it becomes. That is the problem with the claim "current level of 401 ppm—one not seen on Earth for at least the past 3.5 million years."

This claim is false. CO2 spikes above 400 ppm near the start of every interglacial. Plant stomata studies, which can spot the spikes, prove it. For instance, around 12,000 years ago, at the start of the Holocene, CO2 spiked to a higher level than now. At other times during this interglacial, it spiked to 320, 340, 380.
Dale Cutler
1 / 5 (1) Oct 26, 2016
I think the bible can't help in solving the problem of climate change. It is a political thing. And as long as politics believe that a 2 degrees Celsius rise is okay, then we are on the wrong track.
Economics still has the highest priority and in my opinion that is wrong.
What is the use of "good economics" if that means that we get huge floods on one part of the world and droughts in others? Economics will go down with such catastrofes. You can better pay a lot of money now to prevent these catastrofes than pay if it is too late.


You may have misread. If you will look back you will see I am suggesting that Author of time and space is saying that climate change is not fixable.
JamesG
not rated yet Nov 01, 2016
For every "may" there is a "may not".

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