Scientists identify ways to prevent heat-related deaths from climate change

Scientists identify ways to prevent heat-related deaths from climate change
Central Park, New York. Credit: Anthony Quintano/Flickr

New model shows that reducing fossil fuel emissions and improving adaptation efforts may reduce heat-related deaths in New York City.

By the 2080s, as many as 3,331 people could die every year from exposure to heat during the summer months in New York City, according to research published in Environmental Health Perspectives. The high estimate is based on a —the first to account for variability in future population size, greenhouse gas trajectories, and the extent to which residents adapt to heat through interventions like air conditioning and public cooling centres. The research was led by Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and co-authored by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine's Dr Antonio Gasparrini.

Researchers project that as many as 1,779 annual heat-related deaths could be avoided if the climate follows the more moderate of two greenhouse gas trajectories—known as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. High levels of adaptation could save an additional 1,198 lives.

Projections are based on more than a century of temperature, population, and mortality data for New York City in conjunction with climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The risk of dying from heat-related causes was relatively constant during the first part of the 20th Century, then decreased dramatically from the 1970s to the 2000s, during which time the portion of households with air conditioning more than doubled, from 39% in 1979 to 84% in 2003.

Since is already so commonplace in New York City, adaptation efforts may be at or near their maximum effectiveness, the researchers caution. On the other hand, they say the city could grow even more resilient due to the ongoing efforts to reduce the urban heat island effect—for instance through programs to install reflective roofs and plant trees, as well as to protect vulnerable populations through heat warning systems and the availability of cooling centres. Societal factors like gains in overall population health and economic security also promote adaptation.

Dr Antonio Gasparrini, a Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics and Epidemiology at the School, co-authored the paper. Dr Gasparrini, who is also leading an international collaborative network to investigate the health effect associated to non-optimal temperature and climate change said: "This study shows that climate change is putting more people at risk of death as a result of extreme heat. These deaths could be avoided by limiting greenhouse gas emissions and by pursuing high-temperature adaptation methods."

The researchers say follow-up studies could explore questions such as what extent demographic changes—especially a larger population of older adults—will have on heat-related mortality, and the effect of specific interventions related to adaptation and reductions.


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Scientists find two ways to limit the number of heat-related deaths from climate change

More information: Elisaveta P. Petkova et al. Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios, Environmental Health Perspectives (2016). DOI: 10.1289/EHP166
Citation: Scientists identify ways to prevent heat-related deaths from climate change (2016, July 4) retrieved 18 October 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2016-07-scientists-ways-heat-related-deaths-climate.html
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Jul 04, 2016
This comment has been removed by a moderator.


Jul 04, 2016
air conditioners powered by anthracite. Huzzah!

Oh and global warming is passe, the eggheads are flipping back to NEW ICE AGE.
http://www.scienc...e-change

Jul 04, 2016
BartV
If GW does happen

https://www.white...r-record

There is a pretty picture on there for you Bart - it is called a graph.

pilstacy thinks that linking a study - about temperature changes in the last ice age - somehow disputes current global climate data. If you read your article phil - you will see that it was about moving heat around. When the northern hemisphere cooled - the southern hemisphere warmed.

greenonions thinks white house propaganda is the truth

Jul 04, 2016
@FartY
Eat shit and bark at the moon, you goddamn xtian tool!

Another "gem" from AGreatWanker, for after all, he wanks higher than everyone else and commands a quack wegion of suck-puppets.

Jul 04, 2016
No phil - I think that facts are facts. Please show us your data for global climate - if you dispute the NOAA data.

I saw a post that describes Loretta Lynch as a beautiful woman as if this were a fact but beauty like climate change is in the mind of the beholder. I don't think facts matter to someone who cites the white house, headquarters of progressive ideology. You just look for a way to denounce deniers.
http://realclimat...8-years/

Jul 04, 2016
I'm glad somebody is thinking ahead about that. Warning systems and public cooling centers are good ideas. Israel avoided mass deaths they saw last summer in Egypt, India and Pakistan because they have air conditioning. India and Pakistan had tens of thousands dying from record temperatures and humidity- combined.

Jul 04, 2016
@FartY
Eat shit and bark at the moon, you goddamn xtian tool!

Another "gem" from AGreatWanker, for after all, he wanks higher than everyone else and commands a quack wegion of suck-puppets.


Now now my little monkey calm down ... hey.... what did you put in those bananas you ate... you naughty monkey.. ... :D

Jul 04, 2016
This comment has been removed by a moderator.

Jul 04, 2016
"greenonions thinks white house propaganda is the truth"
------------------------------

Not after those screams of "WMD!".

Jul 04, 2016
Look what GloBull warming did in the 1930s..oh...wait....
http://48e3l649yi...ndex.jpg

Jul 04, 2016
See Phil? Do you see how "special" the Chicken Littles are. This article is about New York City and do you think the Chicken Little bothered to check what part of the globe it's in. And no matter how many times such stupidity is rebutted - Chicken Little pops right up does the same thing again. Just like .....

Jul 04, 2016
This comment has been removed by a moderator.

Jul 04, 2016
Issuing exaggerated CO2 death threats to billions of innocent children and all life on the planet Earth is the ultimate in hate crimes, bullying, fear mongering and terrorism.
Now who's the redneck in your children's history books as you eagerly goose step them to your greenhouse gas ovens?
My three children are asking if climate science is also 99% sure the planet isn't flat and why won't they say they agree a CO2 end of days is as real s they say smoking causes cancer?
Who is stopping them from ending this 35 year old debate to save the planet from human caused climate Armageddon.

Or is it a little tiny catastrophic climate "crisis"?
Even Bush didn't exaggerate vague science and fear monger billions of innocent children.

Jul 04, 2016
This is nice, but civilization is likely to spend more time living in glacier cycles.

How do you propose we live when New York is under a mile of ice?

Jul 04, 2016
Issuing exaggerated CO2 death threats to billions of innocent children and all life on the planet Earth is the ultimate in hate crimes, bullying, fear mongering and terrorism.
Now who's the redneck in your children's history books as you eagerly goose step them to your greenhouse gas ovens?.


Honestly, every time I read this comment I'm left wondering what the hell you're talking about. Mostly I ignore it but I have to ask - the only way we're literally "goosestepping toward greenhouse gas ovens" is if climate change is happening and catastrophic. But you claim it's not. So what the hell are you talking about?

Also, I recommend school for your children. This home schooling thing - it's not working out.

Jul 04, 2016
Goracle showed us a spike - about 1.3 degrees - that lasted for one whole year - in the U.S

Wow!! The "intelligence" of the consummate Chicken Little idiot. That graph shows Heat Wave Index NOT temperature.

Jul 05, 2016
Hard to beat that filth

@greenJackass
Uh huh and how many stars did you give to the second comment here?
Oh wait... that was a Chicken Little gem, not filth.

Jul 05, 2016
Reserving comment.

Jul 05, 2016
Goracle showed us a spike - about 1.3 degrees - that lasted for one whole year - in the U.S

Wow!! The "intelligence" of the consummate Chicken Little idiot. That graph shows Heat Wave Index NOT temperature.


No the heatwave is coming from your very sole brain cell overheating, gotta try and take it easy swinging those branches monkey... ;)

Jul 05, 2016
Look what GloBull warming did in the 1930s..oh...wait....
http://48e3l649yi...ndex.jpg

Look at IR baboon aka antisciencegorillacle twerking before posting his dumb comment and useless link :D

Jul 05, 2016
If GW does happen, then let's be thankful that it will also reduce cold-related deaths in winter, which may be many more than heat-related ones.


O man antigoracle sock BartVart 10 one's out of fives that really up's the pottyness of your clueless posts, and of course reading it makes us all understand why it is that you rate so low... :D

Jul 05, 2016
O here's that antigoracle twerking picture i promised :D

https://66.media...._400.gif

Jul 07, 2016
http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Multiple posts on front page of his blog

Record Warm 2016? What a Difference One Month Makes
July 1st, 2016

With the rapid cooling now occurring in the global average tropospheric temperature, my previous prediction of a record warm year in the satellite data for 2016 looks…well…premature.

UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2016: +0.34 deg. C
July 1st, 2016

Second largest 2-month drop in global average satellite temperatures.
Largest 2-month drop in tropical average satellite temperatures.

(The global anomaly for May was +0.55 deg. C)

I don't agree that you can measure average planetary atmosphere temperature change to two significant figures --- but whatever. The climate changes, always.

Jul 09, 2016
multiple socks points to one sole poster caught on camera:

https://www.googl...It8RM%3A

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