England set for 'substantial increase' in record-breaking warm years

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The likelihood of record-breaking warm years in England is set to substantially increase as a result of the human influence on the climate, new research suggests.

In a study published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, an international team of researchers has shown that the chances of England experiencing a record-breaking warm year, such as the one seen in 2014, is at least 13 times more likely as a result of .

This is according to climate and detailed analyses of the Central England Temperature (CET) record—the world's longest instrumental temperature record dating back to 1659.

The results of the study showed that human activities have a large influence on extreme warm years in England, which the researchers claim is remarkable given England is such a small region of the world.

Lead author of the study Dr Andrew King, from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science at the University of Melbourne, said: "When you look at average annual temperatures over larger regions of the world, such as the whole of Europe, there is a lower variability in temperatures from year to year compared with smaller areas.

"As a result of this low variability, it is easier to spot anomalies. This is why larger regions tend to produce stronger attribution statements, so it is remarkable that we get such a clear anthropogenic influence on temperatures in a relatively small area across central England."

To arrive at their results, the researchers firstly used to calculate the likelihood of very warm years when there is just natural forcings on the climate and no human influence, and then when there is both natural forcings and . The change in the likelihood of warm years due to human influences on the climate was then calculated.

The researchers then observed the CET and picked out the warmest years from the record since 1900. The warmest years were then plotted onto a graph which the researchers used to calculate the likelihood of warm years happening now and warms years happening 100 years ago.

The model-based method suggested at least a 13-fold increase (with 90% confidence) due to human influences on the climate, whilst the observation-based approach suggested at least a 22-fold increase in the probability of very warm years in the climate of today compared with the climate of a century ago (again with 90% confidence).

"Both of our approaches showed that there is a significant and substantial increase in the likelihood of very warm years occurring in central England," Dr King Continued.

According to the CET, 2014 was the warmest year on record in central England. It has been reported that during the last 60 years there has been rapid warming in the CET in line with the anthropogenic influence on the climate, with the highest average annual temperature of 10.93 °C recorded in 2014.

The Central England Temperature (CET) series, which is the longest instrumental time series of temperature in the world, has monthly recordings of average temperatures dating back to 1659 and recordings of average daily temperatures dating back to 1772.

The CET is designed to represent the of the English Midlands, which is approximated by a triangular area enclosed by Lancashire in the north, Bristol in the south-west and London in the south-east. The CET has undergone thorough and extensive quality control, making it an ideal resource for studying long-term temperature trends across the region.

As to whether these results can be seen to be representative of areas outside of central England, Dr King said: "I would expect that other areas near the UK would produce similar results.

"For larger regions, stronger attribution statements can often be made. For example, we performed a similar attribution study for Europe as a whole and found a 35-fold increase in the likelihood of extremely warm years using model simulations."


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Human influence important factor in possible global and UK temperature records

More information: Attribution of the record high Central England Temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences, King et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 054002. iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/5/054002
Journal information: Environmental Research Letters

Citation: England set for 'substantial increase' in record-breaking warm years (2015, April 30) retrieved 23 July 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2015-04-england-substantial-record-breaking-years.html
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Apr 30, 2015
They are assuming that the North Atlantic Current that brings the warm temps isn't going to alter.... If it does, they are going to be some cold people!

Apr 30, 2015
I doubt they'll be complaining in the kingdom.

Apr 30, 2015
Old folk die in large numbers when UK temperatures rise. Not a good sign.

May 01, 2015
Kingdom of Great Britain, yes.

But yeah i wouldn't put too much stock in this report - besides our dependence on the Gulf stream (which incidentally has ebbed by around 15-20% already, it's weakest in a millenium, quite possibly due to AGW), we're also right under the jet stream which frequently cuts the Kingdom's weather squarely into northern and southern climes, and occassionaly wanders a few hundred miles further up or down, variously giving us tropical spells or Arctic bursts.. so i doubt things will be getting much less precipitous, in either sense, in the near future..

May 01, 2015
MrVibrating,

The conclusions of any single paper need to be vetted by the whole scientific community before being accepted as truth, but dismissing papers before they are vetted is just as foolhardy.

It is trivially easy to concoct seemingly logical reasons for dismissing any scientific result. But science was invented precisely because casual reasoning, like yours, is terribly inaccurate.

Changes in weather patterns can cause British temperatures and climate to move either way, but with net global warming unpaused (only the acceleration of warming paused for several years) it is extremely unlikely that the island will experience cooler weather as you conjecture.

The surprising conclusion (worthy of further review by other scientists) of this research is that they believe Britain is responding to the warming trend with greater statistical reliably than most patches of Earth of similar size.

May 01, 2015
Commercial vineyards in Scotland like there was during the Roman and Viking Warm periods? And will those vineyards last 400 years as they didn't between CE 850 CE 1250?

Waiting for 400 years of wheat farming and dairy farming in Greenland as well.

Only then will the climate have returned to the normal of the past 2000 years.

May 01, 2015
@nevermark

Reliably changeable perhaps - but warmer's definitely better, if they're right...

May 02, 2015
gkam.
More of us old folk die of cold than warmth, especially those who can't afford to heat their homes because of the rise in cost of electricity due to subsidies of wind farms!

May 02, 2015
gkam.
More of us old folk die of cold than warmth, especially those who can't afford to heat their homes because of the rise in cost of electricity due to subsidies of wind farms!

While this is true on average for the UK (more excess deaths in winter than summer). The point is that CC will cause more frequent severe hot spells, the last one in 2003 as an example...

http://www.metoff...heatwave

It is relatively common for winter temps to fall to ~2C
( http://www.metoff...r-alerts )
for a period of a few days in winter, but much more uncommon for temps ~32C in summer (with consequent hot nights - houses soak up solar heat, therby offering no relief ).
In other words, excess wintertime deaths in the old/infirm population will decrease little but *may* increase greatly in summer.

May 02, 2015
Better chance to reduce world hunger with warmer temps and higher CO2. Humans adapt. Either we adapt or we go extinct. My money is on adaptation.

May 02, 2015
Better chance to reduce world hunger with warmer temps and higher CO2.

That seems unlikely. Global warming means less land is available for cultivation. Yes, as land near the equator becomes less productive more land in the north becomes available, but that land isn't generally very good for agriculture and there's less sun in the north so the growing season is shorter. Increases in floods and droughts means increased food insecurity. Excess CO2 doesn't have much affect on C4 plants, like corn, but it reduces the nutrition in C3 plants, like rice and wheat. And, of course, if it gets too hot the plants will die, excess CO2 or not, meaning the increased severity of heat waves is a real problem. (http://www.skepti...nced.htm )

So I'm not sure how affective all that will be in reducing world hunger.

May 03, 2015
Arctic ice retreat, weather patterns, warmer England. QED. No CO2 required, or indeed mentioned in the article.
Secondarily, we have lessened drivers of weather: The equator to pole cells with less impetus.

Cupie-doll for the mechanism for how this would WARM England. It's one of those answers so obvious you miss it.

May 03, 2015
Better chance to reduce world hunger with warmer temps and higher CO2. Humans adapt. Either we adapt or we go extinct. My money is on adaptation.


Well, it's going to have to be a genetic adaptation, because the AGWites aren't doing anything significantly different than we are. Except talking a lot. Talking a lot about what WE have to change. This is the 21st century. Pop psych is now, "I'm OK; you are the WHOLE problem. Frankly, I'm pretty awesome and you're really screwed". Other than that there's no difference.

May 03, 2015
Arctic ice retreat, weather patterns, warmer England. QED. No CO2 required, or indeed mentioned in the article.
It wasn't mentioned because there was no need .. these guys used climate model simulations, and all of those incorporate the science of the GHE. So GHG's (including CO2) were indeed required to generate the results of the study.
Secondarily, we have lessened drivers of weather: The equator to pole cells with less impetus.
Okie-dokie ... and upon what are you basing this new claim? Observational data? Some sort of vetted meteorological model? Or is it just another wild extrapolation based on what you think happens with your "bell, bowl and candle" model?

May 03, 2015
For the life of me I cannot figure out if this is a warning or a promise of better days coming.

May 03, 2015
gkam.
More of us old folk die of cold than warmth, especially those who can't afford to heat their homes because of the rise in cost of electricity due to subsidies of wind farms!


Tell that to those who died of heat exhaustion in Europe: http://www.scienc...07003770

May 03, 2015
"Tell that to those who died of heat exhaustion in Europe: http://www.scienc...07003770"

Oh Boo Hoo!!!! It was a whole 5 degrees warmer than usual.

http://commons.wi...maly.png

May 03, 2015
So where are all these people who are dying of heat exhaustion, the brown outs, etc, from this last years warmest year ever? Or whatever.

May 03, 2015
Urns and cemeteries.

May 03, 2015
LOL. Nice. There aren't as many as you'd expect from record breaking temperatures, is the point. No news, no heat waves, etc..

Just people who are willing to believe, the big enough lie.

May 03, 2015
"Tell that to those who died of heat exhaustion in Europe: http://www.scienc...07003770"

Oh Boo Hoo!!!! It was a whole 5 degrees warmer than usual.

http://commons.wi...maly.png

Yeah. Think about that. Only five degrees and people were dying. Seriously, think about it, for once in your life.

May 04, 2015
"Yeah. Think about that. Only five degrees and people were dying. Seriously, think about it, for once in your life.

In 2003 there was a "heat wave" in Geneva. High temps were about 35c and lows about 20c. BIG DEAL! To blame 70K deaths on AGW is ludicrous.

May 04, 2015
On a purely scientific basis, lets say that I am in very poor health and suffering from some sort of terminal disease. If my death is hastened by abnormally high temperatures is it fair to claim that I was killed by them?

May 06, 2015
Water_Prophet again with immense deficits in cognition
LOL. Nice. There aren't as many as you'd expect from record breaking temperatures, is the point. No news, no heat waves, etc..
Water_Prophet couldn't handle the idea of "distribution" ie how local weather patterns move heat !

Water_Prophet's naive assumptions prove he cannot have his claimed "4 technical degrees" !

Water_Prophet added further idiocy
Just people who are willing to believe, the big enough lie
Those that have studied Science = "The Discipline of the Acquisition of Knowledge" & is moderated not in terms of faith & belief but by the "Balance of Probabilities" ie Acceptance

Strange isn't it, Water_Prophet claims so many things yet CANNOT prove his made up figure for CO2's radiative forcing of 0.00009 W/m^2 has ANY basis, he is a fake !

Water_Prophet, the Pathological Liar strikes again & FAILS again to offer anything substantive:-
https://en.wikipe...al_lying

May 07, 2015
On a purely scientific basis, lets say that I am in very poor health and suffering from some sort of terminal disease. If my death is hastened by abnormally high temperatures is it fair to claim that I was killed by them?
Perhaps not, but it's sufficient in the context of the article above to say precisely what you did above, that the deaths of the elderly and infirm are *hastened* by extremes of high (or cold) temperature.

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