Earth's sensitivity to climate change could be 'double' previous estimates, say geologists

December 10, 2013

The sensitivity of the Earth's climate to CO2 could be double what has been previously estimated, according to a statement issued by the Geological Society of London.

In an addendum to 2010's 'Climate change: Evidence from the Geological Record', the statement notes that many models typically look at short term, rapid factors when calculating the Earth's – defined as the mean global temperature increase brought about by a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

It is well known that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could result in temperature increases of between 1.5 and 4.5°C, due to fast changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour of clouds and water vapour.

Geological evidence from studies of past now suggests that if longer term factors are taken into account, such as the decay of large ice sheets and the operation of the full carbon cycle, the sensitivity of the Earth to a doubling of CO2 could be double that predicted by most climate models.

Dr Colin Summerhayes, who led the statement's working group, says 'Geological studies of past climate change are throwing new light on how the Earth may respond to growing emissions of CO2. The climate sensitivity suggested by modern may be fine for the short term, but does not encompass the full range of change expected in the long term as the Earth's climate moves slowly towards equilibrium.'

The statement also highlights new data showing that temperature and CO2 levels recorded in Antarctic ice cores increase at the same time. This, says Summerhayes, 'makes the role of CO2 in changing Ice Age climate highly significant.'

Atmospheric carbon levels are current at just below 400 parts per million – a figure last seen during the Pliocene, between 5.3 and 2.6 million years ago. At that time, global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than today, and sea levels were several metres higher, due to partial melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.

If the current rate of increase (2 ppm per year) continues, CO2 levels could reach 600 ppm by the end of this century; levels which, says Summerhayes, 'have not been seen for 24 million years.'

The statement outlines evidence that a relatively modest rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature results in significant sea level rise, while oceans become more acidic and less oxygenated. Previous such events, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 55 million years ago, caused marine crises and extinctions, with the Earth System taking around 100,000 years to recover.

'We now have even more confidence from the ' says Summerhayes, 'that the only plausible explanation for current warming is the unprecedented exponential rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Recent compilations of past climate data, along with astronomical calculations, show that changes in the Earth's orbit and axis cooled the world over the past 10,000 years. This cooling would normally be expected to continue for at least another 1,000 years.

'And yet Arctic palaeoclimate records show that the period 1950-2000 was the warmest 50 year interval for 2,000 years. We should be cool, but we're not.'

Explore further: Late Cretaceous Period was likely ice-free

More information: For more information, see

Related Stories

Late Cretaceous Period was likely ice-free

September 24, 2013

For years, scientists have thought that a continental ice sheet formed during the Late Cretaceous Period more than 90 million years ago when the climate was much warmer than it is today. Now, a University of Missouri researcher ...

Climate chief warns of 'urgency' as CO2 levels rise

April 29, 2013

The UN's climate chief called for urgency Monday as she opened a new round of global talks amid warnings that Earth-warming carbon dioxide levels were approaching a symbolic threshold never seen in human history.

Historic carbon peak soon to become global average, WMO says

May 14, 2013

After seeing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere surpass a historic threshold last week, the world should brace for the new peak level to soon become the global annual average, the World Meteorological Organization warned ...

Recommended for you

The world needs to rethink the value of water

November 23, 2017

Research led by Oxford University highlights the accelerating pressure on measuring, monitoring and managing water locally and globally. A new four-part framework is proposed to value water for sustainable development to ...

'Lost' 99% of ocean microplastics to be identified with dye?

November 23, 2017

The smallest microplastics in our oceans – which go largely undetected and are potentially harmful – could be more effectively identified using an innovative and inexpensive new method, developed by researchers at the ...

1 comment

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

3 / 5 (2) Dec 10, 2013
The more we look at the past levels of CO2 on this planet, the more problems we see for the future if CO2 levels continue to rise. 100 years from now this planet could be a very different place.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.