Researchers Plan to Simulate Movements of 300 Million Americans

December 9, 2008 by Lisa Zyga, Phys.org weblog
US
By developing an extremely detailed simulation of the US population, researchers are hoping to understand how contagious diseases spread through society.

(PhysOrg.com) -- Researchers from Virginia Tech are developing a computer simulation that matches the movements of all 300 million people in towns across the US. The team hopes that the model will help them understand the spread of contagious diseases, fads, and traffic flows.

Currently, the researchers' model consists of about 100 million Americans, and they expect to be able to simulate the movement of all 300 million US residents in the next six months. To achieve this, the researchers use large amounts of publicly available demographic data, mostly from the US Census. Each synthetic American possesses as many as 163 variables, which describe characteristics such as age, education level, occupation, and whether one lives with a family or alone.

The software, called EpiSimdemics, can provide an accurate simulation of the demographic attributes of groups composed of 1500 people or more. Based on the data, the software generates individuals to populate real US cities, giving them real street addresses and real jobs or schools within a reasonable distance from their address. Individuals are also matched to local grocery stores and shopping centers, which are identified through a database from Navteq, a digital mapping company.

One of the first applications for compiling all this data will be studying how contagious diseases, such as a flu epidemic, might spread through different regions. The software infects a few simulated individuals with the flu, and tracks them as they go about their daily lives. The model gives each person a different probability of responding to the virus, derived from the individual's data, such as age and general health.

Using data from all the interactions between infected individuals and others, the algorithm determines the number of new infections. The software treats each person and location as a separate set of calculations, so that many parts can be computed in parallel on a supercomputer. By breaking up the problem in this way, the researchers could significantly speed up the calculations.

By showing the path that a virus takes through a population, the simulation can help researchers implement effective public health intervention programs. The simulation can also determine when the infection peaks, representing the biggest burden on a city's health system, and preparing officials.

"The vision is for a Google-like interface, where you approach the system and ask it a question," says Christopher Barrett, who works on the project and is the director of Virginia Tech's Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory. "The framework is there, and now we're pushing the system to larger and larger scales."

via: IEEE Spectrum

© 2008 PhysOrg.com

Explore further: Catching up to brain cancer: Researchers develop accurate model of how aggressive cancer cells move and spread

Related Stories

Breaking the rules of brain cancer

February 14, 2018

A brief chat at a Faculty Senate meeting put two University of Delaware researchers onto an idea that could be of great value to cancer researchers.

New models give insight into the heart of the Rosette Nebula

February 13, 2018

A hole at the heart of a stunning rose-like interstellar cloud has puzzled astronomers for decades. But new research, led by the University of Leeds, offers an explanation for the discrepancy between the size and age of the ...

Recommended for you

Researchers find tweeting in cities lower than expected

February 20, 2018

Studying data from Twitter, University of Illinois researchers found that less people tweet per capita from larger cities than in smaller ones, indicating an unexpected trend that has implications in understanding urban pace ...

Augmented reality takes 3-D printing to next level

February 20, 2018

Cornell researchers are taking 3-D printing and 3-D modeling to a new level by using augmented reality (AR) to allow designers to design in physical space while a robotic arm rapidly prints the work.

8 comments

Adjust slider to filter visible comments by rank

Display comments: newest first

AxlJones
4 / 5 (2) Dec 09, 2008
Well, if they're simulating Americans' movement, 300m static dots should do the job..
magpies
1 / 5 (2) Dec 09, 2008
Who is going to understand this useless information?
thematrix606
1 / 5 (1) Dec 09, 2008
They need this for the Terminator reality show...easier to track people down!
gmurphy
not rated yet Dec 09, 2008
may one day those dots could go on to be guinness?
Doug_Huffman
3 / 5 (2) Dec 09, 2008
Shades of Isaac Asimov and Hari Seldon's Psychohistory, predicting the future in probabilistic terms?
theophys
5 / 5 (1) Dec 09, 2008
Seems like a useful way to develop emergancy plans for pandemics. If they understand how a virus spreads, it's just a hop and a skip to understanding how to stop the spread.

Exlcuding killing anyone with the disease, of course.
Thnder
not rated yet Dec 17, 2008
This could translate into a cool game of sorts.
"Sheep Hearding"
mb0742
not rated yet Dec 19, 2008
Not if they're all shot dead yet again, rofl.

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.