Seasonal Forecast Calls For Mild Winter In West And Cold In Northeast

Nov 24, 2005

Atmospheric and Environmental Research released its winter forecast Tuesday indicating that much of the United States will experience a warmer than normal winter.

Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER, reported that, "...the western two-thirds of the country will experience above normal temperatures this winter, while the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes will experience below normal temperatures."

Dr. Cohen, an expert in climatology, has been studying the effects of Eurasian snow cover since the mid-1990's. His research has demonstrated that the amount of snow cover over the land mass of Eurasia in the fall, has a major influence on winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

The greater the extent of snow cover in Eurasia, the colder the winter season is likely to be in the Northern Hemisphere. This fall Eurasian snow cover is normal and not heavily relied on as a predictor.

Instead Dr. Cohen incorporates other atmospheric variables into his model and based on the current state of the atmosphere, temperatures in most of the US are expected to be, on average, warmer than normal while the Northeast will be colder than normal.

While it isn't forecasted to be as cold as the winter of 2002-2003, that winter AER accurately predicated below normal temperatures in the northeast, this winter temperatures will average below normal in that region of the country.

Dr. Cohen's proven technique has been tested and refined over the last decade and continues to outperform other forecasts derived from a less comprehensive set of initial inputs. While consumers are hoping for warmer than normal winter conditions in the Northeast, there could be an increase in energy consumption based on Dr. Cohen's forecast.

Copyright 2005 by Space Daily, Distributed United Press International

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