Professor uses math model to predict Yanks and Twins to advance to league championship

Oct 04, 2006

The New York Yankees have better than a 3 in 4 chance of defeating the Detroit Tigers in their best of 5 series beginning tonight, said Bruce Bukiet, PhD, associate professor in the department of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT).

Bukiet's mathematical model, which was published in the journal Operations Research, computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage.

In the other American League (AL) match-up, Bukiet said that the Minnesota Twins have a 71 percent chance of defeating the Oakland A's. "So, it looks as if the AL Championship series will have the Yankees facing the Twins," he added.

In the National League, the teams are more evenly matched. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a 58 percent chance of defeating the New York Mets, while the San Diego Padres have a 62 percent chance of defeating the St. Louis Cardinals.

Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, said that winning the first game can change a team's fortunes markedly. If the Mets win the first game, their chances of advancing increase from 42 percent to 62 percent. If the Cardinals win in the first game, their chances of winning, according to Bukiet, improve 38 percent to 57 percent.

For the past six years, Bukiet has been using his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks (posted on m.njit.edu/~bukiet/playoffs.htm) will feature daily updates on the chances of each team winning the Division Series, the Championship Series and the World Series. Such postings have led to positive results for five of the past six years.

Bukiet's research concerns the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena. Current interests include biomedical applications of mathematics, including stresses in the heart and modeling the dynamics of flow in the human lung. He also works in the application of mathematical modeling for sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball. Bukiet recently received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award for Outstanding Work.

Source: New Jersey Institute of Technology

Explore further: When vaccines are imperfect: What math can tell us about their effects on disease propagation

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Phillies, Rangers, Yanks, Giants to win, says NJIT math guru

Oct 05, 2010

With the Major League Baseball Division Series set to begin, associate math professor Bruce Bukiet at NJIT is performing his analysis of the probability of each team advancing to the League Championship Series. "Going into ...

Recommended for you

Ancient Egyptian codex finally deciphered

2 hours ago

(Phys.org) —A pair of Australian researchers, Malcolm Choat with Macquarie University and Iain Gardner with the University of Sydney, has after many decades of effort by others, succeeded in deciphering ...

Tracking Chinese aid to Africa

5 hours ago

Is a fancy new school in an African government official's hometown a coincidence, or evidence of systematic favouritism in the distribution of aid?

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.