NC State Predicts Active Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2010

Apr 26, 2010

(PhysOrg.com) -- Researchers at North Carolina State University believe that hurricane activity will be above normal in the Atlantic basin in 2010.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and collaborators Dr. Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, and graduate student Danny Modlin, 2010 should see 15 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the and the Caribbean Sea. This number is significantly higher than the 50-year average of nine to 11 named storms.

Of those named storms, eight to 11 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and there is an 80 percent chance that one of those storms will make landfall along the coast of the southeastern United States, and a 70 percent chance that the landfalling will arrive as a hurricane.

As for the Gulf, Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of five to seven named storms forming, of which two to four will become hurricanes. The researchers expect three to six of the named storms to make landfall along the Gulf, and there is an 80 percent chance that at least one of those storms will be of hurricane status. In addition, there is a 55 percent chance that one major hurricane will hit the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including and sea-surface temperatures, in order to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

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User comments : 2

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avatarian
not rated yet Apr 26, 2010
Does not say in which parts of the atlantic one can expext the greatest
amount of activity...would be useful for transatlantic sailing.
TegiriNenashi
not rated yet Apr 26, 2010
Given their spotless record of previous predictions, I bet, after hearing this announcement Floridians began packing their belongings and move to higher ground.

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