Megatrends and megashocks: a new view of our future world

Apr 23, 2010
Megatrends and megashocks: a new view of our future world
In our future world, increases in jet travel will be accompanied by a more interlinked world with a flow of people, ideas and cultures between regions and countries. (Dr Stefan Hajkowicz - CSIRO)

(PhysOrg.com) -- A new report from CSIRO identifies five global megatrends and eight megashocks that are changing the world.

“Megatrends are collections of interlinked trends that will change the way people live and the science and technology products that they demand,” report co-author CSIRO’s Dr James Moody says.

“Megashocks are hard-to-predict risks defined by sudden and significant events, like the Asian tsunami and the GFC.
“As well as informing science activities within CSIRO, we hope that this report will help inform Australian industry, government and community decisions.

“Our aim is to take a fresh approach to understanding the future by using new data, methods, technology and ideas.
“We welcome comment and input from experts and stakeholders to this work in progress.”

The megatrends presented in the report are based on analyses of over 100 trends contributed by leading scientists and business development staff across CSIRO.

The report identifies megatrend one as ‘more from less’. In a world of increasing demand for depleting natural resources, from minerals to water to fish, coming decades will see a focus on resource use efficiency and a major global effort on extracting more from less.

The second megatrend is ‘a personal touch’. Growth of the services sector, now representing over 70 per cent of the Australian economy, is being followed by a second wave of innovation aimed at tailoring and targeting services en masse, to individual customers.

The third is ‘divergent demographics’, recognising the growing contrast between ageing OECD populations experiencing lifestyle and diet-related health problems, and high and problems of not enough food for millions in .

Megatrend four notes that more and more of the world’s people are ‘on the move’, changing jobs, moving house and travelling more often and commuting further to work.

The fifth megatrand is dubbed ‘i World’, predicting that everything in the natural world will have a digital counterpart.

Report co-author Dr Stefan Hajkowicz says that the megashocks of our future world will have profound and far reaching implications for people’s lives.

“Our megashocks are based on 36 global risks identified by the World Economic Forum in 2009, from which we have identified eight risks particularly important from an Australian science and technology perspective.

“These include oil and gas price spikes, pandemic influenza, biodiversity loss and extreme weather events related to climate change.”

The report can be obtained from: Our Future World: An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios.

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User comments : 3

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Shootist
2.3 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2010
Our progeny will laugh so hard at us and our "discovery" and reaction to "climate change".
MikeLisanke
not rated yet May 02, 2010
Why doesn't anybody mention that flying people all over the planet contributes greatly to greenhouse gas emissions? We really should learn to leave people where they are and move the meetings information in space and time.
lbuz
not rated yet May 02, 2010
I so admire those commentators here whose penetrating vision is not confused by data, distracted by consensus, or misled by thermodynamics. We are all enlightened and made better by their dedicated repetition of the Gospel According to Them. Amen! Can I get a witness?

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