Arizona State epidemiologist to explore dynamics of Mexico's H1N1 pandemic

Feb 21, 2010

Influenza surveillance mechanisms in Mexico were adequate during the fast-spreading H1N1 outbreak in 2009, yet Mexico did not have the infrastructure to quickly identify the emergence of this novel strain, according to an Arizona State University (ASU) epidemiologist.

Carlos Castillo-Chavez, director of ASU's Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, will take a close look at factors impacting the influenza dynamics within Mexico during a presentation Feb. 21 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Castillo-Chavez's presentation, "Life in the Fast Lane: H1N1 Pandemic Dynamics in Mexico's Central Influenza Corridor," is part of a session of how mathematics is used for investigating biological hierarchies.

"Mexico public health officials took immediate and massive social-distancing measures during the initial outbreak that were effective, but only over a short-time scale," says Castillo-Chavez. "But the second wave hit Mexico and the rate of infections exceeded those over the months of April through June 2009. The combination of large movements of people in Mexico's central influenza corridor and past strict social-distancing measures seemed to have had a dramatic effect on the ongoing dynamics within Mexico. Fortunately, disease severity has not been as devastating as in past ."

In his analysis of Mexico's response to the H1N1 virus and the dynamics surrounding the , Castillo-Chavez will address a number of lingering questions, including whether social-distancing measures (no longer in effect) combined with summer school breaks not only slowed down the first wave but could have resulted in a less manageable second wave.

He also will break down what was learned from Mexico's experience to answer such questions as: Is the lack of advanced diagnostic facilities and uniform surveillance systems, common in poor nations, "good" for the rest of the world? What will be the impact of the limited access that the have-nots (individuals or nations) have to adequate supplies of antiviral drugs and the H1N1 vaccine on the dynamics of ? What are the optimal public health policies for non-wealthy nations?

Explore further: Recorded Ebola deaths top 7,000

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

H1N1 influenza pandemic modeling for public health action

Jul 20, 2009

Mathematical modelling can help inform public health policy in outbreaks such as the H1N1 pandemic, write members of the Pandemic Influenza Outbreak Research Modelling Team in Canada in a CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Jo ...

Study links real-time data to flu vaccine strategies

Dec 03, 2009

Adaptive vaccination strategies, based on age patterns of hospitalizations and deaths monitored in real-time during the early stages of a pandemic, outperform seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategies, according ...

Recommended for you

Recorded Ebola deaths top 7,000

5 hours ago

The worst Ebola outbreak on record has now killed more than 7,000 people, with many of the latest deaths reported in Sierra Leone, the World Health Organization said as United Nations Secretary-General Ban ...

Liberia holds Senate vote amid Ebola fears (Update)

9 hours ago

Health workers manned polling stations across Liberia on Saturday as voters cast their ballots in a twice-delayed Senate election that has been criticized for its potential to spread the deadly Ebola disease.

Evidence-based recs issued for systemic care in psoriasis

Dec 19, 2014

(HealthDay)—For appropriately selected patients with psoriasis, combining biologics with other systemic treatments, including phototherapy, oral medications, or other biologic, may result in greater efficacy ...

Bacteria in caramel apples kills at least four in US

Dec 19, 2014

A listeria outbreak believed to originate from commercially packaged caramel apples has killed at least four people in the United States and sickened 28 people since November, officials said Friday.

Steroid-based treatment may answer needs of pediatric EoE patients

Dec 19, 2014

A new formulation of oral budesonide suspension, a steroid-based treatment, is safe and effective in treating pediatric patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), according to a new study in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, the official clinical practice journal ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.