Predicting effectiveness of flu vaccination campaigns

Feb 09, 2010

A new study, published by Elsevier this month in Vaccine, describes a new method that assesses the impact and cost-effectiveness of a range of vaccination options. The model was applied to the 2009 Influenza H1N1 outbreak and predicted accurately in real-time when the epidemic would peak and who should be prioritized for vaccination.

Last year, an outbreak of a novel strain of linked to swine influenza was detected in Mexico. The infection has shown sustained human-to-human transmission across the world, leading the to declare an . Vaccines specific for have been successfully developed and the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization recommended that high-risk individuals be prioritized for vaccination.

Decisions about extending vaccination to low-risk individuals are heavily debated and depend partly on the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of such options. Marc Baguelin, Albert Jan Van Hoek and colleagues from the Health Protection Agency and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK describe how they fit a to the estimated number of cases in real-time to predict the effectiveness of alternative influenza vaccination strategies. Specifically, they show that, vaccination of high risk groups was probably very cost effective. However, the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating children depended on the progress of the epidemic and may be cost-effective in countries where a flu pandemic is not so far advanced.

"Given the present debates in different European countries about the legitimacy of the different choices of vaccination our paper is very topical", said Baguelin, "further it reinforces and expands a recent article in The Lancet as it also suggests that many more people than first thought were infected in the summer wave of the swine flu pandemic".

Explore further: Growing a blood vessel in a week

More information:
-- Marc Baguelin, Albert Jan Van Hoek, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche, Peter J. White, and W. John Edmunds, Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: A real-time economic evaluation, 2010 Vaccine, Article In Press. doi:10.1016/s0140-67360.1016/j.vaccine.2010.01.002
-- Lancet paper: doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(09)62126-7

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Study links real-time data to flu vaccine strategies

Dec 03, 2009

Adaptive vaccination strategies, based on age patterns of hospitalizations and deaths monitored in real-time during the early stages of a pandemic, outperform seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategies, according ...

Recommended for you

Growing a blood vessel in a week

Oct 24, 2014

The technology for creating new tissues from stem cells has taken a giant leap forward. Three tablespoons of blood are all that is needed to grow a brand new blood vessel in just seven days. This is shown ...

Testing time for stem cells

Oct 24, 2014

DefiniGEN is one of the first commercial opportunities to arise from Cambridge's expertise in stem cell research. Here, we look at some of the fundamental research that enables it to supply liver and pancreatic ...

Team finds key signaling pathway in cause of preeclampsia

Oct 23, 2014

A team of researchers led by a Wayne State University School of Medicine associate professor of obstetrics and gynecology has published findings that provide novel insight into the cause of preeclampsia, the leading cause ...

Rapid test to diagnose severe sepsis

Oct 23, 2014

A new test, developed by University of British Columbia researchers, could help physicians predict within an hour if a patient will develop severe sepsis so they can begin treatment immediately.

User comments : 0