H1N1 simulation modeling shows rapid vaccine rollout effective in reducing infection rates

Oct 13, 2009

Early action, especially rapid rollout of vaccines, is extremely effective in reducing the attack rate of the H1N1 influenza virus, according to a simulation model of a pandemic outbreak reported in a new study in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal).

The article presents a simulation model that projects how many people will be infected under different disease control strategies. The model simulated a outbreak based on demographic information from London, a mid-sized city in Ontario, Canada as well as epidemiologic data. It looked at the impact of vaccination timing, school closures and treatment strategies as well as the effect of pre-existing immunity.

The authors simulated a large range of possible scenarios that may play out in reality, to determine whether any general conclusions could be drawn. The model captures how vaccination not only protects vaccinated individuals but can also help the healthcare system to cope by flattening the peak of the outbreak and delaying the peak. The model provides mathematical predictions for how and when that could happen.

The H1N1 pandemic has required decision-makers to set policy in the face of significant uncertainties, and simulation models can be used to help them decide on the best strategy to mitigate the spread of infection.

"The results of our suggest that vaccination can have a disproportionately large impact on reducing the attack rate in a "fall wave," although delays can significantly erode its effectiveness," write Dr. Marija Zivkovic Gojovic and coauthors.

As well, the model predicts that school closures would be effective. However, the authors note there are important social costs of school closures that they did not examine in the analysis. The study did not attempt to predict influenza-related deaths, and did not assess vaccination strategies targeted to high risk groups or specific age groups, such as school age children.

The model was developed by researchers from the University of Toronto, the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion and the Research Institute of the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto; and University of Guelph in Guelph, Ontario.

More information: www.cmaj.ca/cgi/doi/10.1503/cmaj.091641

Source: (news : web)

Explore further: Recorded Ebola deaths top 7,000

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

H1N1 influenza pandemic modeling for public health action

Jul 20, 2009

Mathematical modelling can help inform public health policy in outbreaks such as the H1N1 pandemic, write members of the Pandemic Influenza Outbreak Research Modelling Team in Canada in a CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Jo ...

Recommended for you

Recorded Ebola deaths top 7,000

14 hours ago

The worst Ebola outbreak on record has now killed more than 7,000 people, with many of the latest deaths reported in Sierra Leone, the World Health Organization said as United Nations Secretary-General Ban ...

Liberia holds Senate vote amid Ebola fears (Update)

18 hours ago

Health workers manned polling stations across Liberia on Saturday as voters cast their ballots in a twice-delayed Senate election that has been criticized for its potential to spread the deadly Ebola disease.

Evidence-based recs issued for systemic care in psoriasis

Dec 19, 2014

(HealthDay)—For appropriately selected patients with psoriasis, combining biologics with other systemic treatments, including phototherapy, oral medications, or other biologic, may result in greater efficacy ...

Bacteria in caramel apples kills at least four in US

Dec 19, 2014

A listeria outbreak believed to originate from commercially packaged caramel apples has killed at least four people in the United States and sickened 28 people since November, officials said Friday.

Steroid-based treatment may answer needs of pediatric EoE patients

Dec 19, 2014

A new formulation of oral budesonide suspension, a steroid-based treatment, is safe and effective in treating pediatric patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), according to a new study in Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, the official clinical practice journal ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.