An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf

October 26, 2015 bySeth Borenstein
An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf
In this June 10, 2010 file photo, an Asian laborer avoids the direct sun by working behind a wooden sign, as he works on a manhole alongside of an under construction road in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Parts of the Persian Gulf by the end of the century will on occasion will be just too hot for the human body to tolerate, if carbon dioxide emissions continue on current trend, a new study says. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)

If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, by the end of century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be just too hot for the human body to tolerate, a new study says.

How hot? The index—which combines heat and humidity—may hit 165 to 170 degrees (74 to 77 Celsius) for at least six hours, according to numerous computer simulations in the new study. That's so hot that the can't get rid of heat. The elderly and ill are hurt most by current heart waves, but the future is expected to be so hot that healthy, fit people would be endangered, health experts say.

"You can go to a wet sauna and put the temperature up to 35 (Celsius or 95 degrees Fahrenheit) or so. You can bear it for a while, now think of that at an extended exposure" of six or more hours, said study co-author Elfatih Eltahir, an MIT environmental engineering professor.

While humans have been around, Earth has not seen that type of prolonged, oppressive combination of heat and humidity, Eltahir said. But with the unique geography and climate of the Persian Gulf and increased warming projected if heat-trapping gas emissions continue to rise at current rates, it will happen every decade or so by the end of the century, according to the study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

This would be the type of heat that would make deadly heat wave in Europe in 2003 that killed more than 70,000 people "look like a refreshing day or event," said study co-author Jeremy Pal of Loyola Marymount University

It would still be rare, and cities such as Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha wouldn't quite be uninhabitable, thanks to air conditioning. But for people living and working outside or those with no air conditioning, it would be intolerable, said Eltahir and Pal. While Mecca won't be quite as hot, the heat will likely still cause many deaths during the annual hajj pilgrimage, Eltahir said.

The video will load shortly
Audio visual summary of the research, produced by Research Square and provided by the authors. Credit: Pal et al.

"Some of the scariest prospects from a changing clime involve conditions completely outside the range of human experience," Carnegie Institute for Science climate researcher Chris Field, who wasn't part of the study, wrote in an email. "If we don't limit to avoid extreme heat or mugginess, the people in these regions will likely need to find other places to live."

Said Dr. Howard Frumkin, dean of the University of Washington school of public health, who wasn't part of the research: "When the ambient temperatures are extremely high, as projected in this paper, then exposed people can and do die. The implication s of this paper for the Gulf region are frightening."

But if the world limits future heat-trapping gas emissions—even close to the amount pledged recently by countries around the world ahead of climate talks later this year in Paris—that intolerable level of heat can be avoided, Eltahir said.

Explore further: Heat and humidity conspire for discomfort, danger

More information: Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2833

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zorro6204
5 / 5 (8) Oct 26, 2015
You'd have to re-design air conditioning to make that work, most air conditioners couldn't function at that temperature. Can you imagine relying on your air conditioner to live? Difficult to see how office and residential buildings could function, the place would probably have to be abandoned. But no worries, it will under water anyway.
gkam
3.7 / 5 (16) Oct 26, 2015
Send the Deniers there for education. In a few years, they will get the message.
LariAnn
4.7 / 5 (12) Oct 26, 2015
Send the Deniers there for education. In a few years, they will get the message.


Regrettably, they would just claim it is "natural climate variation" and then ask for A/C subsidies and other pork barrel funding to make their lives more tolerable there.
gkam
3.5 / 5 (11) Oct 26, 2015
Deserts are habitable, if one goes mainly underground. Earth-sheltered homes with skylights and other amenities can make it very livable, especially if diurnal temperature swings are high. Dumping heat into a 3 degree Kelvin sky is easy if they are clear.
Osiris1
1 / 5 (13) Oct 26, 2015
Look for the REAL invasion of the muslimes. They wanted all the land there. They about got it. Appears now some judgement may have been devinely made to take care of them. So now expect mass migrations of all the terrorists. Yeah not all muslimes are terrorists, but seems 99.4 % of terrorists, just like a perversion of the Maxwell House Coffee commercial, ARE muslimes. World will be forced into a war of religion it did not want, but there will be NO peace with these religious fanatics ever so our only choice will be to not accept them into our countries north and south of these forbidden zones. For to accept them is to kill ourselves, our culture, our civilization, our honor, and accept in its place permanent poverty, ignorance (Boko Harem), and death by Malthusian starvation. Salafist ISIS ruling the world would doom us all, them included. No space mining for rare earths. No birth control. No off earth colonies. No science. == HUMAN GLOBAL EXTINCTION...ALL OF US!!
I Have Questions
5 / 5 (7) Oct 26, 2015
Osiris1, Google apophenia.
Osiris1
1.8 / 5 (5) Oct 26, 2015
Air conditioner design WOULD work, just need different working fluids and higher molecular wt aliphatic or aromatic lubricants. As for working fluids, feed to the condenser would be high pressure gas over 200 deg F. Coming out would be a liquid of 140 deg F. Here a secondary pump, a vacuum pump, would reduce the pressure to near 4lb/ft^2 to force boil the fluid in the evaporator to an ending temp of 50 deg F. so that fans could cool the airconditioned space while still maintaining vacuum in the evaporator. Then the output of that would go thru a one way valve and be fed to a high energy compressor to start the new carnot modified cycle all over again. The underground guy is right. Conditions in Somaliland are hot enuf to force underground dwelling. All is lost however as soon as night time temperatures go above 140 degrees before 2150. All above ground work forced to night, and all crops hydroponic inside underground...like working on Venus, kinda. Real problem to live.
Osiris1
1.8 / 5 (5) Oct 26, 2015
For 'apophenia' ...see http://www.apophenia.info . That is a statistical software program written in C to relate various ordinarily unrelated data sets with what could be called a nexialist algorithm set. Go to that website and download it! See for yourself. The warming future is coming. Folks who deny it are foolish to ignore it even when the evidence is standing in front of them. Go to Saudi to Rub al Qalliee region 'the empty quarter' in summer there and stand in the sun without protection and see for yourself what 145 degrees F. feels like. You would NOT want to live there. No people live there. This will not be unique to the so called middle east. ALL places at similar lattitudes from the Tropic of Cancer to the Tropic of Capricorn will be affected in similar ways. Look at the other planets of our system..all have bands. The cold places' bands are different colors from different gases able to exist as gases there. Ours is NO different. We heading there too..now.
Shootist
1.5 / 5 (17) Oct 26, 2015
run in circles scream and shout.

what a bunch of poltroons.

Of course [the weather] concerns me, but of course, we don't know much about the causes of those things. We don't even know for sure whether it is more variable than it used to be. I mean the worst disasters were the Ice Ages, and nobody really understands for sure the causes of Ice Ages, so I'm not saying the climate disasters aren't real, I'm merely saying we don't know how to prevent them." - Freeman Dyson
leetennant
4.4 / 5 (13) Oct 26, 2015
If only the report button worked. Moderators, where art thou?
antigoracle
1.3 / 5 (13) Oct 26, 2015
Poor AGW Cult, the only place they can go to make up GloBULL warming, to feed their ignorant chicken littles, is the desert.
And, in the real news - https://www.googl...dle+east
howhot2
4.8 / 5 (16) Oct 26, 2015
Ahh good old @antigoracle just can't take the truth so he buries his head in the sand saying "Go away AGW cult, Go away Al Gore, Go Away global warming....". The Middle East extreme could start the first of the environmental refugee shift. This will certainly put stress on the food sources that will be becoming rare as ocean acidification destroys plankton, fish and those sources, high temperatures would destroy crops, and millions of Middle Eastern climate refugees would seek asylum in less effected by AGW but creating over crowding and slums. In fact, it sounds just like "Soylent Green".

https://www.youtu...Vj4l5GU4

leetennant
4.2 / 5 (10) Oct 26, 2015
But howhot2, it was cold in the Middle East in winter.
howhot2
4.3 / 5 (12) Oct 26, 2015
But howhot2, it was cold in the Middle East in winter.

Yes, but the nagging question you must answer is will it be cold in the Middle East in future winters? Maybe they will have seasons, the Hot season, and the passable season. Passable because that is all people would do, just pass through.

Funny part about the Youtube video is that the next video is the whole movie. A classic in scifi movies. It features Charlton Heston (Mr. NRA. "Pry the gun from my cold dead hands").
Your typical rightwing denier types should love it.

antigoracle
1.3 / 5 (12) Oct 26, 2015
Yep, GloBULL warming is turning California into a desert and drowning the coasts, so that's why your False "Profit" Al does this. https://www.googl...ito+home
jeffensley
1.7 / 5 (6) Oct 26, 2015
You can go to a wet sauna and put the temperature up to 95 degrees Fahrenheit or so. You can bear it for a while, now think of that at an extended exposure


Or you could just go to the South in July-August.
mosahlah
3 / 5 (4) Oct 27, 2015
Spontaneous Human Combustion, sounds like the next imminent global warming catastrophe. But, perhaps that is the price of peace in the middle east....
AGreatWhopper
4 / 5 (8) Oct 27, 2015
Wonderful. Only a shit for brains xtian could actually use that tiny little envelope that is the atmosphere as a toilette, pollute it beyond what human life can tolerate, then call it "some kind of judgement day". Osiris, the Egyptian gods are dead. Why don't you join them already?
jim_xanara
3.8 / 5 (10) Oct 27, 2015
antiratioinal

1 / 5 (6) 9 hours ago
Poor AGW Cult, the only place they can go to make up GloBULL warming, to feed their ignorant chicken littles


"I'm afraid of Al Gore, I'm afraid of Al Gore, I'm afraid of Al Gore, and everyone that disagrees with me is a chicken little!" "I have a cheat sheet of cutesy phrases that I post from because I'm too stupid to have a conversation. Let's see. Oh, yeah. This week I'm going to use 'globull'."

Hey, walking piece of human excrement, my uncle does the cane whippings here locally. I dare you to come to Malaysia and be so rude. I'd love to see you scream like a little girl when you get the wages you deserve.

Oh, but then you're an anonymous coward aren't you? I've given all my personal details. You think you're better? Prove it. Take the bag off your head, braying quisling!
Grallen
5 / 5 (11) Oct 27, 2015
@antigoracle, I don't know why you laud Gore are some sort of leader of people trying to save the planet they have to live on. At best, to us, he's another individual who is worried about the planet. So on that note: As any other individual that does not solely represent the group of rational people that know we are screwing up our planet, he has flaws. Those flaws however don't matter for the group. We wish he would do better in the same way we with YOU would do better. You are wasting your keystrokes, I doubt your angry comments on science articles on phys.org will reach him...

Commenter's and articles rarely (if ever) put him up on a pedestal. In fact, he would probably fade to near obscurity here if -YOU- would stop talking about him. I hope our passive disinterest helps to sate your strange hatred of the man.
gkam
3 / 5 (8) Oct 27, 2015
It is not just the Middle East with a big problem:

http://www.altern...&t=4
Returners
1.6 / 5 (7) Oct 27, 2015
While Mecca won't be quite as hot, the heat will likely still cause many deaths during the annual hajj pilgrimage, Eltahir said.


Their false god "allah" won't mind anyway, he already wants them to sacrifice their lives to kill Christians and Jews whenever possible.

Global Warming looks like a very cost-effective way of eliminating Islam.
TheGhostofOtto1923
4 / 5 (4) Oct 27, 2015
World will be forced into a war of religion it did not want, but there will be NO peace with these religious fanatics... to accept them is to kill ourselves, our culture, our civilization, our honor, and accept in its place permanent poverty, ignorance
"Historians have studied the motivations for anti-Catholicism. Historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Sr. characterized prejudice against the Catholics as "the deepest bias in the history of the American people."

"Historian John Higham described anti-Catholicism as "the most luxuriant, tenacious tradition of paranoiac agitation in American history"

"Anti-Catholicism reached a peak in the mid 19th century when Protestant leaders became alarmed by the heavy influx of Catholic immigrants from Ireland and Germany. Some believed that the Catholic Church was the Whore of Babylon ..."

"9 What has happened before will happen again. What has been done before will be done again. There is nothing new in the whole world." ecc1
TheGhostofOtto1923
5 / 5 (2) Oct 27, 2015
"An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf"

-An intolerable unimaginable cold forecast for Antarctica...

-People in many places in the ME are already spending most all their time in conditioned spaces.
http://www.rtkl.c...-centre/
http://www.rithol...-see-it/

-Wealthy arabs have already anticipated the inevitable and are building for it.

-active cooling tech for clothing already exists and will improve when solid state systems are developed
https://www.pegas...OOLSHIRT

-But higher temps will do much to curb the religion-driven overpopulation in this region.
antigoracle
1.6 / 5 (7) Oct 27, 2015
Hee...hawww....hee...haawww.....
Hey, walking piece of human excrement, my uncle does the cane whippings here locally. I dare you to come to Malaysia and be so rude. I'd love to see you scream like a little girl when you get the wages you deserve......

Wow, an invitation to that cesspool of barbarism.
I see the whippings did you a lot of good.
Your avatar here - https://sciencex...._xanara/
Just 1 example of your hatred of Jews here - http://phys.org/n...dow.html
Then again, in your cesspool of a country, such behaviour is not rude but rewarded as exemplary.
Do us all a favour, flush yourself and your country out of existence.
leetennant
4.4 / 5 (7) Oct 27, 2015
Seriously, moderators - where are you?
howhot2
5 / 5 (8) Oct 27, 2015
Seriously, moderators - where are you?

There are no moderators, Only Zuul!
eachus
3.5 / 5 (4) Oct 28, 2015
I think that the predictions here may be important to the residents of the Middle East. But pretending that these conditions do not exist on the Earth now is silly. Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific easily exceed these conditions. To get the same on land, Death Valley, California. This page: https://en.wikipe..._records argues about which temperature to use as the record there, but it is still well North of 50 degrees C. These are, of course, dry bulb temperatures, but from experience, any temperatures above 35 degrees C can result in heat stroke, and if not promptly treated, death. (The US military, especially the Army, puts a huge amount of training and effort into keeping people alive in these conditions. Not just alive, but functioning outdoors in these conditions.)

What about when evaporation doesn't help? Air conditioning is nice, but what keeps your core body temperature under control is ice water. And you need to pack the water anyway.
Nik_2213
not rated yet Oct 28, 2015
At what point does this heat accumulation near a coast create 'thermals', a sea breeze and thunderstorms ??
RealityCheck
5 / 5 (4) Oct 30, 2015
Hi Shootist/Antigoracle.

Shootist:
run in circles scream and shout. what a bunch of poltroons.

"Of course [the weather] concerns me, but of course, we don't know much about the causes of those things. We don't even know for sure whether it is more variable than it used to be. I mean the worst disasters were the Ice Ages, and nobody really understands for sure the causes of Ice Ages, so I'm not saying the climate disasters aren't real, I'm merely saying we don't know how to prevent them." - Freeman Dyson
We do know what causes ice ages both big and little. I explained it before. We also know Freeman Dyson acknowledges anthropogenic climate change but is unsure how to tackle it.

Antigoracle:
Yep, GloBULL warming is turning California into a desert and drowning the coasts, so that's why your False "Profit" Al does this.
Your fixation on 'personality' rather than 'problem' indicates your agenda is purely political.

Denial of reality makes you irrelevant trolls. :)

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