Study of aerosols stands to improve climate models

Aug 04, 2014 by Kimm Fesenmaier
Clouds over the southern Indian Ocean. This image was acquired by one of the northward-viewing cameras of the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument on NASA's polar-orbiting Terra spacecraft. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

(Phys.org) —Aerosols, tiny particles in the atmosphere, play a significant role in Earth's climate, scattering and absorbing incoming sunlight and affecting the formation and properties of clouds. Currently, the effect that these aerosols have on clouds represents the largest uncertainty among all influences on climate change.

But now researchers from Caltech and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have provided a global observational study of the effect that changes in aerosol levels have on low-level marine clouds—the clouds that have the largest impact on the amount of that Earth reflects back into space. The findings appear in the advance online version of the journal Nature Geoscience.

Changes in aerosol levels have two main effects—they alter the amount of clouds in the atmosphere and they change the internal properties of those clouds. Using measurements from several of NASA's Earth-monitoring satellites from August 2006 through April 2011, the researchers quantified for the first time these two effects from 7.3 million individual data points.

"If you combine these two effects, you get an aerosol influence almost twice that estimated in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," says John Seinfeld, the Louis E. Nohl Professor and professor of chemical engineering at Caltech. "These results offer unique guidance on how warm cloud processes should be incorporated in with changing aerosol levels."

Explore further: Tagging tiny particles in turbulent clouds

More information: "Satellite-based estimate of global aerosol–cloud radiative forcing by marine warm clouds." Yi-Chun Chen, Matthew W. Christensen, Graeme L. Stephens & John H. Seinfeld. Nature Geoscience (2014) DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2214. Received 15 April 2014 Accepted 03 July 2014 Published online 03 August 2014

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User comments : 13

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KDK
1.8 / 5 (10) Aug 04, 2014
A study of Climategate and Agenda 21 will improve the climate model--showing how the current models are total frauds!
runrig
4.3 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2014
A study of Climategate and Agenda 21 will improve the climate model--showing how the current models are total frauds!

If you say so - it must be true.
FFS
runrig
4.2 / 5 (5) Aug 04, 2014
x2 post
supamark23
4.3 / 5 (6) Aug 04, 2014
A study of Climategate and Agenda 21 will improve the climate model--showing how the current models are total frauds!


Prove it or STFU.
ryggesogn2
2.3 / 5 (9) Aug 04, 2014
"Currently, the effect that these aerosols have on clouds represents the largest uncertainty among all influences on climate change."

But not enough uncertainty to predict doom in 100 years?
antigoracle
2.1 / 5 (7) Aug 04, 2014
Currently, the effect that these aerosols have on clouds represents the largest uncertainty among all influences on climate change.

So, when the AGW Cult preach er.. bray, THE "SCIENCE" IS SETTLED, what science is that?
Oh yes, climate "science", where those who practice intimidation and fraud are embraced and promoted to the highest echelons of the cult.
runrig
4.2 / 5 (5) Aug 05, 2014
"Currently, the effect that these aerosols have on clouds represents the largest uncertainty among all influences on climate change."

But not enough uncertainty to predict doom in 100 years?

Correct.

ryggesogn2
1.8 / 5 (5) Aug 05, 2014
"Currently, the effect that these aerosols have on clouds represents the largest uncertainty among all influences on climate change."

But not enough uncertainty to predict doom in 100 years?

Correct.


Why should AGWites who predict doom be given any respect?
runrig
4 / 5 (4) Aug 05, 2014
"Currently, the effect that these aerosols have on clouds represents the largest uncertainty among all influences on climate change."

But not enough uncertainty to predict doom in 100 years?

Correct.

Why should AGWites who predict doom be given any respect?

What are you on ryggy?

SO a correct weather forecast of hurricane Sandy on NY does not command respect ... merely becasue it brought damage?

Yet a correct forecast of "sunny spells and scattered showers" does ??

Why would any forceast, IF PROVEN CORRECT (and note it will NOT be for some decades),
be any the less worthy than any other?

You'll have to explain that logic to me, coz it doesn't make sense to someone who issued forecasts with every word I uttered in professional life to my customers, whether RAF pilots, farmers, the BBC or the general public.
A forecast is a forecast is a forecast. Ff that is where the data takes you then .........

You do not get to dismiss a forecast before it's time.
Shootist
2.3 / 5 (3) Aug 09, 2014
Good. Climate models don't model anything close to reality anyway, at least according to Dyson (who damn sure knows more about models and modeling than any of us).
orti
3 / 5 (2) Aug 10, 2014
Well, no matter what's happening, we're still sure it's 95% certain ... and so on.
ryggesogn2
3 / 5 (2) Aug 10, 2014
a correct weather forecast of hurricane Sandy on NY does not command respect ..

Success fosters respect for predictions.
One must wait 100 years for AGWite forecasts.
AGW hurricane forecasts, only months in advance earn little respect.
1200 month forecasts should earn no respect.

ryggesogn2
1 / 5 (1) Aug 10, 2014
Well, no matter what's happening, we're still sure it's 95% certain ... and so on.


""P values are not doing their job, because they can't," says Stephen Ziliak, an economist at Roosevelt University in Chicago, Illinois, and a frequent critic of the way statistics are used."
"The irony is that when UK statistician Ronald Fisher introduced the P value in the 1920s, he did not mean it to be a definitive test. He intended it simply as an informal way to judge whether evidence was significant in the old-fashioned sense: worthy of a second look. "
"This is when a P value of 0.05 became enshrined as 'statistically significant', for example. "The P value was never meant to be used the way it's used today," says Goodman."
http://www.nature...-1.14700

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