UN weather agency warns of 'El Nino' this year

Apr 15, 2014
The UN weather agency warned there was a good chance of an "El Nino" climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean this year, bringing droughts and heavy rainfall to the rest of the world

The UN weather agency Tuesday warned there was a good chance of an "El Nino" climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean this year, bringing droughts and heavy rainfall to the rest of the world.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said its modelling suggested a "fairly large potential for an El Nino, most likely by the end of the second quarter of 2014."

"If an El Nino event develops ... it will influence temperatures and precipitation and contribute to droughts or in different regions of the world," WMO chief Michel Jarraud said in a statement.

The El Nino phenomenon occurs every two to seven years, when the prevailing that circulate surface water in the tropical Pacific start to weaken.

WMO pointed out Tuesday that since February, trade winds had weakened and there had been a significant warming of the waters below the surface in the central Pacific.

"While there is no guarantee this situation will lead to an El Nino event, the longer the trade winds remain weakened, and sub-surface temperatures stay significantly warmer than average, the higher the likelihood," it said.

Two thirds of climate models predicted that the phenomenon would begin sometime between June and August, with a few suggesting it could start as early as May, and the remainder predicting no El Nino this year, it said.

The last El Nino occurred between June 2009 and May 2010.

It is often followed by a return swing of the pendulum with La Nina, which is characterised by unusually cool in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Scientists, who closely monitor the two climate patterns, say that while they are not caused by climate change, rising ocean temperatures caused by global warming may affect their intensity and frequency.

"El Nino has an important warming effect on global average temperatures," Jarraud cautioned, stressing that combined with human-induced warming from greenhouse gases such events had "the potential to cause a dramatic rise in global mean ."

Explore further: Weak El Nino possible by mid-2014, WMO says

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User comments : 8

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Shootist
1.6 / 5 (14) Apr 15, 2014
Does anyone of note actually listen to whatever bloviates out of the UN?
ryggesogn2
1.7 / 5 (14) Apr 15, 2014
What is the success rate of their predictions?
Caliban
4.3 / 5 (11) Apr 15, 2014


Here, I'll post the link yet again, to make it that much more difficult for you two moron trolls to ignore it:

http://www.slate....ter.html

The failure of either an El Nino or its corresponding phenom, a La Nina, to form during the last couple of years was bound to result in some pretty serious consequences.

ryggesogn2
1.6 / 5 (13) Apr 15, 2014
Doesn't answer the question of the reliability of the prediction.
ryggesogn2
1.6 / 5 (13) Apr 15, 2014
"More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving"
http://www.nap.ed...id=12878
It looks like there is room for improvement at WMO.
Egleton
4.2 / 5 (10) Apr 16, 2014
I used to be amused by the professional trolls.
howhot2
4.1 / 5 (10) Apr 17, 2014
I used to be amused by the professional trolls.
Me too, but now these blowhards of ignorant bovine methane fumes just make ones shoulders sink in despair for the human race. Are these trolls just that stupid and weasly? Most of these methane breathers seem to have tea party affiliations too. Every crazy kooky idea comes right out of the mouths of these anti-democracy tea party boweevils that proclaim secret knowledge of inner workings of climate change. Wow, what a group to be in.

orti
2.1 / 5 (7) Apr 20, 2014
"combined with human-induced warming from greenhouse gases such events had 'the potential to cause a dramatic rise in global mean temperature.'"
Why did I know that this would be the conclusion in any phys.org article? This is not objective science, its propaganda.

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