European climate at the +2 C global warming threshold

Apr 16, 2014

A global warming of 2 C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change.

However, a new study shows that, even at this threshold, substantial and robust changes may be expected across Europe. Most of Europe will warm more than the global average with increases over +3 degrees over Northern Europe in winter and Central-Southern Europe in summer.

Similar increases are also shown for extremes of temperature. Precipitation patterns at +2C show the now familiar wet-north and dry-south patterns and increasing heavy precipitation across much of Europe in both winter and summer.

Highlighted in Nature

These conclusions appear in a new study published in Environmental Research Letters in March and recently highlighted in Nature. Stefan Sobolowski at Uni Research and the Bjerknes Centre is co-author in the study led by Robert Vautard at the Pierre-Simon Laplace Institute in Gif-sur-Yvette, France.

This research was performed as part of an EU-FP7 project called IMPACT2C, which investigates the potential impacts in Europe and abroad even if society manages to keep globally averaged warming to around 2 degrees celsius. Crossing the +2 degree threshold is essentially a mid-century or earlier event under both the older IPCC scenarios and the new representative concentration pathways (RCPs).

Weather and climate is experienced locally

The only way it is avoided is under the very aggressive, and increasingly unlikely, RCP2.6 scenario. The patterns of change, with the exception of regional variations, are now well known. What is new in this study is the fact that it can be shown that even at the global threshold of +2C substantial regional to local scale changes occur.

A global warming of +2C is somewhat abstract concept to many people. We do not experience weather and globally, we experience it locally. And this study places these changes in a spatial context that is relevant for the public.

Further, this study shows that these changes not as far away as we might think; a few decades at most.

"To put this in perspective," Dr. Sobolowski says, "this will be about the time that my daughter reaches adulthood".

Explore further: Researchers map European climate change (Update)

More information: Robert Vautard et al, 2014. "The European climate under a 2C global warming" Environmental Research Letters 9 034006, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006

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User comments : 16

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antigoracle
2 / 5 (8) Apr 17, 2014
Wasn't it warmer during the MWP.
Oh, I forgot, according to AGW Cult doctrine, the MWP never existed.
howhot2
4.3 / 5 (6) Apr 18, 2014
Wasn't it warmer during the MWP.
Oh, I forgot, according to AGW Cult doctrine, the MWP never existed.

That is a stupid point. Here is data to prove it.

http://www.skepti...riod.htm

You deniers are really trying to lie to people with this crap you come up with. Do you play this stupid in real life? Whether you like it or not, AGW is real, in full effect, and if not mitigated it will be devastating to humanity and global ecosystems everywhere.

LariAnn
4 / 5 (6) Apr 23, 2014
The "medieval warm period" is now known to have been a local or regional phenomenon, not a global one. But is is typical of science deniers to look at local weather and think it is proof that the rest of the globe is experiencing the same thing. For example, because the northeastern US had a colder than average winter in 2014, that means the entire globe is colder than average, a denier conclusion that is so wrong that it confirms their foolishness, stupidity and greed.
Modernmystic
2.3 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2014
You deniers are really trying to lie to people with this crap you come up with. Do you play this stupid in real life? Whether you like it or not, AGW is real, in full effect, and if not mitigated it will be devastating to humanity and global ecosystems everywhere.


So where do you stand on nuclear power?
Maggnus
3.7 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2014
You deniers are really trying to lie to people with this crap you come up with. Do you play this stupid in real life? Whether you like it or not, AGW is real, in full effect, and if not mitigated it will be devastating to humanity and global ecosystems everywhere.


So where do you stand on nuclear power?
Why do you think this matters? Building a strawman?
Modernmystic
1 / 5 (1) Apr 23, 2014
You deniers are really trying to lie to people with this crap you come up with. Do you play this stupid in real life? Whether you like it or not, AGW is real, in full effect, and if not mitigated it will be devastating to humanity and global ecosystems everywhere.


So where do you stand on nuclear power?
Why do you think this matters? Building a strawman?


I think it matters because if you're unwilling to compromise on policy to "save the planet" then I'm a bit suspicious about your intentions and motivations. IOW you should be talking about THAT (your primary motivation) and not AGW.

And as an aside, that was pretty disrespectful. Was that your intention?
Maggnus
3.7 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2014
So where do you stand on nuclear power?
Why do you think this matters? Building a strawman?


I think it matters because if you're unwilling to compromise on policy to "save the planet" then I'm a bit suspicious about your intentions and motivations. IOW you should be talking about THAT (your primary motivation) and not AGW.

And as an aside, that was pretty disrespectful. Was that your intention?
My intention was to solicit an understanding of your use of a loaded question. You appear to have assumed a position not taken by the OP, and further you appear to be seeking to make an argument about an issue that is not mentioned in the article.

Your question was further couched in such a way as to suggest the fallacy of a false dilemma.

Finally, your use of a one dimensional loaded question is duplicitous. If you have an issue to make, make it, don't hide behind a deliberately provocative single statement.

Modernmystic
1 / 5 (1) Apr 23, 2014
My intention was to solicit an understanding of your use of a loaded question. You appear to have assumed a position not taken by the OP, and further you appear to be seeking to make an argument about an issue that is not mentioned in the article.


How about instead of assuming my intentions and being disrespectful because of your assumption you just ask me in a respectful manner what they in FACT are?

You DID assume a lot. My intention was to show that IF you feel so strongly about AGW as the original poster did then obviously you'd be willing to compromise on policy...OTHERWISE it's ACTUALLY the policy that you're so passionate about.

If you want to get into a conversation there's plenty of ways to do it that convey respect. If you want to continue to be asinine, be my guest.

Yes, I AM trying to change the conversation. I AM going to start calling people out who SAY they want to save the planet but are no more serious about it than an oil Barron...
Maggnus
3.7 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2014
My intention was to solicit an understanding of your use of a loaded question. You appear to have assumed a position not taken by the OP, and further you appear to be seeking to make an argument about an issue that is not mentioned in the article.


How about instead of assuming my intentions and being disrespectful because of your assumption you just ask me in a respectful manner what they in FACT are?
I did.

I cannot help that you read disrespect into my comment, and I made no assumption. I asked.

I have often commented to you, and have never purposefully disrespected you. Why would you assume I meant to now?
Modernmystic
not rated yet Apr 23, 2014

I cannot help that you read disrespect into my comment, and I made no assumption. I asked.


No indeed you can't, and that's on me, but I did. I think that any reasonable person would have though.

Sorry if I misunderstood.
Maggnus
3 / 5 (2) Apr 23, 2014

How about instead of assuming my intentions and being disrespectful because of your assumption you just ask me in a respectful manner what they in FACT are?
AN edit overlap. See above for my answer to this.
You DID assume a lot.
I assumed nothing.
My intention was to show that IF you feel so strongly about AGW as the original poster did then obviously you'd be willing to compromise on policy...OTHERWISE it's ACTUALLY the policy that you're so passionate about.
Then why not say it instead of posting a deliberately provocative statement?

If you want to get into a conversation there's plenty of ways to do it that convey respect. If you want to continue to be asinine, be my guest.
Says the pot to the kettle.

As to your point, what policy are you suggesting should be compromised?
Modernmystic
2 / 5 (2) Apr 23, 2014
Then why not say it instead of posting a deliberately provocative statement?


It's not a provocative statement. I can't help if YOU took it that way. It was an interrogative statement. I honestly DON'T know what his position was on nuclear power. If it was positive there was no need to waste energy on it.

I can tell you I've wasted enough energy on THIS conversation though. I'm guessing you feel the same.
ryggesogn2
1 / 5 (2) Apr 23, 2014
If the MWP was not global then any assertion in this article about the European climate in regards to global climate is irrelevant..
Maggnus
3 / 5 (2) Apr 23, 2014
It's not a provocative statement. I can't help if YOU took it that way. It was an interrogative statement. I honestly DON'T know what his position was on nuclear power. If it was positive there was no need to waste energy on it.
Cacoethes carpendi. Nuclear may form part of the solution, but it is not the be all nor end all. I personally believe it is worth pursuing, but I would rather see hot fusion work.

I can tell you I've wasted enough energy on THIS conversation though. I'm guessing you feel the same.
On the contrary, albeit the assumptions should be laid to rest.
Maggnus
3.7 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2014
If the MWP was not global then any assertion in this article about the European climate in regards to global climate is irrelevant..
Now THIS is asinine!
ryggesogn2
1 / 5 (3) Apr 23, 2014
If the MWP was not global then any assertion in this article about the European climate in regards to global climate is irrelevant..
Now THIS is asinine!

Yes, it is asinine to assert MWP was not global.