Climate change: regional impact
This is how climate change may affect the world's regions this century, as forecast in a major report published by UN scientists Monday.
The report is part of the fifth overview on global warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1988.
The document identifies each region's key challenges; options for addressing them; and level of risk from warming of either 2 C (3.6 F) or 4 C (7.2 F) by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. This risk is calculated on the basis of present policies for adapting to climate change.
AFRICA
Challenge: Water stress
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Smarter use of water resources
Challenge: Food shortages
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Stress-tolerant crops, help for small farmers
Challenge: Mosquito- and water-borne diseases
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Option: Outbreak early-warning systems, improved sanitation
EUROPE
Challenge: Flooding in river basis and on coasts
Risk: Medium at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Improve flood protection
Challenge: Water stress in dry regions
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Reduce water waste, including through irrigation
Challenge: Heatwaves and air pollution affecting health
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Reduce emissions to improve air quality and adapt homes and workplaces for heatwaves.
ASIA
Challenge: Flood damage to homes and infrastructure
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: More resilient buildings and "selective relocation"
Challenge: Deaths from extreme heat
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Strengthen health systems, improve city planning to reduce urban heat buildup
Challenge: Malnutrition caused by drought
Risk: Medium at 2 C, high at 4 C
Options: Beef up vigilance on food supplies, improve disaster preparedness
AUSTRALASIA
Challenge: Damage to coral reefs and, in Australia, animal and plant species loss
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Reduce pressures on ecosystems from pollution, tourism and introduced species
Challenge: Flooding, and coastal infrastructure lost to rising seas
Risk: Medium at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Smarter land use to reduce exposure to floods and coastal erosion.
NORTH AMERICA
Challenge: Wildfires for ecosystems and homes
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Improve fire prevention measures
Challenge: Deaths from heatwaves
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Encourage residential air conditioning, build cooling centres for the vulnerable
Challenge: Property and infrastructure damage from extreme rainstorms
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Install drainage systems that allow water runoff to recharge groundwater resources, easing flood risk
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
Challenge: Water stress in semi-arid areas that depend on glaciers for water supply
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Improve water supply and land use
Challenge: Flooding in urban areas from extreme rainfall
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Improve urban flood management, early-warning systems and weather alerts
Challenge: Decreased food production and food quality
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Develop drought-resistant crop strains
POLAR REGIONS
Challenge: Risk to ecosystems from changes to permafrost, snow and ice
Risk: High at 2 C , very high at 4C
Options: Enhanced monitoring of risk, hunt different species if possible
Challenge: Food insecurity and lack of reliable and safe drinking water
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Improve monitoring systems, shift resources, settle elsewhere
Challenge: Impact on Arctic communities if climate change happens very fast
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Improve communications, education and training, encourage co-management of ecosystem
SMALL ISLANDS
Challenge: Loss of homes, farmland, infrastructure and livelihoods from rising seas and storms
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Boost coastal buffers and improve management of water and soil resources
Challenge: Loss of low-lying land in coastal areas from a combination of rising seas and storm surges
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Not constructing new buildings in areas at risk
OCEANS
Challenge: Decline in fish catches at low latitudes
Risk: Medium at 2 C, high at 4 C
Options: Flexible management reactive to stock variability, expanding aquaculture
Challenge: Biodiversity loss from heat-damaged coral reefs
Risk: Very high at 2 C and 4 C
Options: Reduce other human-induced stresses like pollution, tourism and fishing
Challenge: Damage to coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and sea grass from soil runoff from heavy rain and coastal erosion
Risk: High at 2 C, very high at 4 C
Options: Reduce soil runoff caused by deforestation
SOURCE: "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability " (Summary for Policymakers)
© 2014 AFP
