One percent of the population is responsible for 63 percent of violent crime convictions

Dec 06, 2013

The majority of all violent crime in Sweden is committed by a small number of people. They are almost all male (92%) who early in life develops violent criminality, substance abuse problems, often diagnosed with personality disorders and commit large number non-violent crimes. These are the findings of researchers at Sahlgrenska Academy who have examined 2.5 million people in Swedish criminal and population registers.

In this study, the Gothenburg researchers matched all convictions for violent crime in Sweden between 1973 and 2004 with nation-wide population register for those born between 1958 to 1980 (2.5 million).

Of the 2.5 million individuals included in the study, 4 percent were convicted of at least one violent crime, 93,642 individuals in total. Of these convicted at least once, 26 percent were re-convicted three or more times, thus resulting in 1 percent of the population (23,342 individuals) accounting for 63 percent of all violent crime convictions during the study period.

"Our results show that 4 percent of those who have three or more violent crime convictions have psychotic disorders, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Psychotic disorders are twice as common among as in the general population, but despite this fact they constitute a very small proportion of the repeat offenders," says Örjan Falk, researcher at Sahlgrenska Academy.

One finding the Gothenburg researchers present is that "acts of insanity" that receive a great deal of mass media coverage, committed by someone with a severe psychiatric disorder, are not responsible for the majority of violent crimes.

According to the researchers, the study's results are important to crime prevention efforts.

"This helps us identify which individuals and groups in need of special attention and extra resources for intervention. A discussion on the efficacy of punishment (prison sentences) for this group is needed as well, and we would like to initiate a debate on what kind of criminological and medical action that could be meaningful to invest in," says Örjan Falk.

Studies like this one are often used as arguments for more stringent sentences and US principles like "three strikes and you're out". What are your views on this?

"Just locking those who commit three or more violent crimes away for life is of course a compelling idea from a societal protective point of view, but could result in some undesirable consequences such as an escalation of serious violence in connection with police intervention and stronger motives for perpetrators of repeat violence to threaten and attack witnesses to avoid life sentences. It is also a fact that a large number of violent crimes are committed inside the penal system".

"And from a moral standpoint it would mean that we give up on these, in many ways, broken individuals who most likely would be helped by intensive psychiatric treatments or other kind of interventions. There are also other plausible alternatives to prison for those who persistently relapse into violent crime, such as highly intensive monitoring, electronic monitoring and of course the continuing development of specially targeted treatment programs. This would initially entail a higher cost to society, but over a longer period of time would reduce the total number of violent crimes and thereby reduce a large part of the suffering and costs that result from ," says Örjan Falk.

"I first and foremost advocate a greater focus on children and adolescents who exhibit signs of developing violent behavior and who are at the risk of later becoming repeat offenders of violent crime".

The article The 1 % of the population accountable for 63 % of all violent crime convictions, was published in Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology in October.

Explore further: School violence lowers test scores, not grades

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TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (6) Dec 06, 2013
""Just locking those who commit three or more violent crimes away for life is of course a compelling idea from a societal protective point of view, but could result in some undesirable consequences such as an escalation of serious violence in connection with police intervention and stronger blahblah"

-Maybe somebody should make some phone calls...

"Three-strikes laws are statutes enacted by state governments in the United States which mandate state courts to impose harsher sentences on habitual offenders who are convicted of three or more serious criminal offenses. In most jurisdictions, only crimes at the felony level qualify as serious offenses. Twenty-four states have some form of habitual offender law."

"other plausible alternatives to prison for those who persistently relapse into violent crime, such as highly intensive monitoring, electronic monitoring"

-In the future we will all be tagged with internal networks incl realtime physiology monitoring. Crime will be impossible.
VENDItardE
1.5 / 5 (16) Dec 06, 2013
old news, the problem is liberals are pussies who feel bad about killing to save society.
Protoplasmix
2.5 / 5 (15) Dec 07, 2013
old news, the problem is liberals are pussies who feel bad about killing to save society.

Pretty sure you could find at least 1% of the population who would agree with you.
zaxxon451
2.1 / 5 (7) Dec 08, 2013
Jail is for poor people. The real criminals are the 1% who are destroying our society without even breaking the law.
Doug_Huffman
1 / 5 (10) Dec 08, 2013
The real criminals are the 1% who are destroying our society without even breaking the law.
That's progressivism for you. Read and UNDERSTAND Popper's The Poverty of Historicism about the consequences of Marx's Hegelian dialectic FAIL.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (9) Dec 08, 2013
Jail is for poor people. The real criminals are the 1% who are destroying our society without even breaking the law.
Most poor people struggle with damaged brains that inflict subliminal pain which leaves them compulsive, emotional, unable to concentrate, and addiction-prone. The damage in a psychopaths brain renders him incapable of empathy.

Then there are those whose tribal affiliations tend to identify outsiders as prey. They are obligated to victimize them as a matter of honor and pride.

These are the people most likely to end up incarcerated.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1.4 / 5 (7) Dec 08, 2013
UNDERSTAND Popper's The Poverty of blahblah
What - this crap?

"Upon this basis, along with that of the logical content of assertions (where logical content is inversely proportional to probability), Popper went on to develop his important notion of verisimilitude or "truthlikeness". The intuitive idea behind verisimilitude is that the assertions or hypotheses of scientific theories can be objectively measured with respect to the amount of truth and falsity that they imply. And, in this way, one theory can be evaluated as more or less true than another on a quantitative basis which, Popper emphasises forcefully, has nothing to do with "subjective probabilities" or other merely "epistemic" considerations."

-It was DESIGNED to be unfathomable.

"Popper's original attempt to define not just verisimilitude, but an actual measure on it, turned out to be inadequate."

-Well duh.

"However, it inspired a wealth of new attempts."

-All of which which were also useless philobabble.
zaxxon451
3 / 5 (2) Dec 08, 2013
That's progressivism for you. Read and UNDERSTAND Popper's The Poverty of Historicism about the consequences of Marx's Hegelian dialectic FAIL.


Read and understand history to know that class struggle defines our species. Those with wealth have the power to shape public policy for their own benefit in order to maintain their positions of privilege at the expense of the working class.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1.3 / 5 (8) Dec 08, 2013
Read and understand history to know that tribalism in the context of the human tropical reproductive rate defines our species. Those tribes which have the power to shape public policy for their own benefit in order to maintain their position of privilege at the expense of the other tribes, WILL BE SELECTED FOR. And as darwin said, this too is evolution.
zaxxon451
5 / 5 (1) Dec 08, 2013
Read and understand history to know that tribalism in the context of the human tropical reproductive rate defines our species. Those tribes which have the power to shape public policy for their own benefit in order to maintain their position of privilege at the expense of the other tribes, WILL BE SELECTED FOR. And as darwin said, this too is evolution.


Hence the purpose of government, to create a space where society can grow as a single tribe.
Birger
5 / 5 (1) Dec 09, 2013
Often you can see in school who are going to have trouble as adults. It would make perfect sense (economical as well as humanitarian) to intervene with qualified care BEFORE they grow up and their personalities get less flexible. Good luck convincing your local politicians of that!
Eikka
1 / 5 (2) Dec 09, 2013
All of which which were also useless philobabble.


You're misdirecting the point.

Popper's criticism boils down to pointing out that the idea of class struggle or Marxism etc. stems from a "Platonic" view of reality that asserts that history repeats itself, as a sort of law of nature, so that the Hegelian and Marxist dialectic could claim to predit the necessary future development in a scientific sense by observing the past.

But that is just magical thinking. The problem is that the culture itself defines what it sees and interprets of the past, and the past after all is just one event - it's not repeated or repeatable in the same sense that scientific theories would require - so it cannot really tell us anything about what has to happen.

In effect, the dialectics can only look back in hindsight, invent some plausible sounding hypothesis that fits the percieved patterns, and then say "well that's how it was bound to happen". You get an illusion that you're always right.
Eikka
1 / 5 (3) Dec 09, 2013
Read and understand history to know that class struggle defines our species.


The problem is that "class" is an artifical construct that doesn't really exist. Well, not anymore since we got through with feudalism and the rest.

People who supposedly belong to the same class have vastly different personal and collective interests, but that is not usually a problem in "class concious" societies because they simply follow the interest of their autocratic leaders who define themselves to represent the people.
bertibus
1 / 5 (2) Dec 09, 2013
None of this is new; it has been well known to any police force in the world and anyone who studies criminal behaviour for decades (maybe longer).
The only interesting aspect of the article is what is not mentioned - the idea that many potential criminals behave the way they do because they have no fear of any consequences.
In addition, there may be generational effects of the same outlook that become embedded in a particular group of people.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (4) Dec 09, 2013
Often you can see in school who are going to have trouble as adults. It would make perfect sense (economical as well as humanitarian) to intervene with qualified care BEFORE they grow up and their personalities get less flexible. Good luck convincing your local politicians of that!
Some things cant yet be fixed. But many things can be prevented. Abuse begins in the womb. We will very soon have the technology to monitor pregnant women at risk, remotely, automatically, and in real-time.

Any woman who is found to be ingesting anything which could harm her future child, or otherwise not getting proper nutrition or medical care, can be immediately arrested and locked away in a clinic until she gives birth. This will be far cheaper and more humane than ruining an entire lifetime and creating yet one more criminal-to-be.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (4) Dec 09, 2013
Popper's criticism boils down to pointing out that the idea of class struggle or Marxism etc. stems from a "Platonic" view of reality that asserts that history repeats itself, as a sort of law of nature, so that the Hegelian and Marxist dialectic could claim to predit the necessary future development in a scientific sense by observing the past.

But that is just magical thinking. The problem is that the culture itself defines what it sees and interprets of the past, and the past after all is just one event - it's not repeated or repeatable in the same sense that scientific theories would require - so it cannot really tell us anything about what has to happen.

In effect, the dialectics can only look back in hindsight, invent some plausible sounding hypothesis that fits the percieved patterns, and then say "well that's how it was bound to happen". You get an illusion that you're always right
Im sorry sometimes you say some meaningful things but this seems to be more babble.
cont>
mytwocts
1 / 5 (2) Dec 09, 2013
Very few people are criminals. But those who are are really bad.
That is basically the result. Astonishing.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (4) Dec 09, 2013
For instance:
that history repeats itself, as a sort of law of nature
History CAN be understood in the context of natural law and the specific constraints of the human animal; ie tribalism and our tropical repro rate.
Hegelian and Marxist dialectic could claim to predit the necessary future development in a scientific sense by observing the past
The only 'science' these guys had anything to do with was political science, or applied sociopolitics. They were master propagandists engaged in eliciting behavior, not in explaining it.
The problem is that the culture itself defines what it sees and interprets of the past, and the past after all is just one event
IOW historicism is non-falsifiable. So is a crime of passion. Major events CAN be arranged.

Consistent cyclic patterns of Planning and Foresight CAN be discerned. But you have to understand and accept the context of natural law and the specific constraints of the human animal in order to make any sense of them.
mytwocts
3.7 / 5 (3) Dec 09, 2013
VENDItardE
"pussies who feel bad about killing"
So now it is "liberal" to feel bad about killing somebody.
Atre you listening to yourself?