Mild 2013 cuts Arctic a break, warming woes remain (Update)

Dec 12, 2013 by Seth Borenstein
This handout photo provided by The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Arctic sea ice earlier this year. Scientists spent three weeks in the region analyzing conditions, as recent reductions in sea ice extent in the autumn months impacts weather patterns regionally and perhaps farther afield. The Arctic took a bit of a break from its rapid melting this year. But a federal Arctic report card says global warming is still massively altering the top of the world, reducing the number of reindeer, shrinking snow and ice and yet increasing certain fish and the growing season. (AP Photo/NOAA)

The rapid melting in the Arctic eased up this year. But the government says global warming is still dramatically altering the top of the world, reducing the number of reindeer and shrinking snow and ice, while increasing certain fish and extending the growing season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its report card for the Arctic on Thursday, portraying 2013 as moderate compared with the roasting 2012.

Overall Arctic temperatures did not soar quite as high, and Greenland ice sheets and summer did not melt as much.

"The Arctic caught a break, if you will, in 2013, but one year doesn't change the long-term trend toward a warmer Arctic," said report card editor Martin Jeffries, a University of Alaska geophysicist who is the science adviser to the U.S. Arctic Research Commission.

"The Arctic has shifted to a new normal," Jeffries said at the American Geophysical Union scientific conference in San Francisco, where the 136-page report card was released.

While 2013 looks a tad cool compared with the last six years, it is unusually warm compared with the 20th century, he said.

Central Alaska's summer was one of the warmest on record, coming months after its coldest April since 1924, NOAA said. Fairbanks experienced a record 36 days of more than 80 degrees. And snow cover in May and June was near record low levels in North America and broke a record for the least snow in Eurasia.

But one of the biggest climate change indicators, summer sea ice, was not as bad as expected. Sea ice in 2013 reached its sixth-lowest level in the three decades that NOAA has been keeping track. That's up from the lowest ever in 2012.

But the seven lowest levels have all occurred in the last seven years.

The 2013 figure "is simply natural variability," said National Snow and Ice Data Center director Mark Serreze, who wasn't part of the NOAA report but praised it. "There is nothing about the year 2013 that provides any evidence that the Arctic is starting a path toward recovery."

He added: "Looking back 20 years from now, the world will be warmer and we'll have much less sea ice than today. We'll see that 2013 was just a temporary respite."

More ominous are long-term trends, NOAA's said.

Average Arctic temperatures have increased 3.6 degrees since the 1960s, rising twice as fast as the rest of the world. The growing season has lengthened by nearly a month since 1982.

Fish species are moving north, permafrost is melting, and shrubs are greening in ways that weren't seen before.

While some fish and muskox are doing better, other animals associated with Arctic, like polar bears and walruses, are not. The report cited severe declines in the size of reindeer herds.

"Many of the herds at the overall level are at all-time lows," said study co-author Michael Svoboda of the Canadian Wildlife Service.

Jeffries and University of Virginia environmental scientist Howard Epstein, another study co-author, warned that changes in the Arctic reverberate around the globe.

White ice reflects solar energy, but because it is melting away, the oceans and the land are warming up more, Jeffries said.

He also cited a relatively new and evolving theory that is still dividing meteorologists. It says the loss of sea ice makes the jet stream meander and kink more, triggering more extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere.

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Maggnus
3.5 / 5 (13) Dec 12, 2013
This is why certain denialists' claims that a "recovery" is occurring are so laughably wrong. Combine this with the recent studies on the loss of ice mass in the Antarctic. That's some recovery all right!
VENDItardE
2 / 5 (12) Dec 12, 2013
you are still an idiot Scott.
Shootist
2.1 / 5 (14) Dec 12, 2013
"The polar bears are drowning" - algore, democrat, progressive, inventor of the internet

"The polar bears will be fine" - Freeman Dyson.

Who do you believe?
Maggnus
3.8 / 5 (10) Dec 12, 2013
"The polar bears are drowning" - algore, democrat, progressive, inventor of the internet

"The polar bears will be fine" - Freeman Dyson.

Who do you believe?

In this case, Gore. C'mon Shootist, paste and repeat on every article? Use your words child!
obama_socks
Dec 13, 2013
This comment has been removed by a moderator.
Maggnus
Dec 13, 2013
This comment has been removed by a moderator.
Shootist
1.9 / 5 (13) Dec 13, 2013
"The polar bears are drowning" - algore, democrat, progressive, inventor of the internet

"The polar bears will be fine" - Freeman Dyson.

Who do you believe?

In this case, Gore. C'mon Shootist, paste and repeat on every article? Use your words child!


Dude, having Dyson on my side is like having Feynman on my side. My side wins. You can refute Dyson all day, but you're not smart enough to make it stick, and neither is Hanson or Mann, et. al.

"I am saying that all predictions concerning climate are highly uncertain" - Freeman Dyson.
ScooterG
2.1 / 5 (14) Dec 13, 2013
"warming woes remain" LOL

As long as "warming" remains a profit center, there will always be "warming woes".
obama_socks
1.7 / 5 (11) Dec 14, 2013
So ScienceX got the franchise for profiles and PMs? Hired more people, I assume.

The "global warming" makes great downhill skiing weather. That packed powder up in the mountains here in the West makes me very happy. :)
30 more years of it? I say, bring it on.
runrig
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 14, 2013
So ScienceX got the franchise for profiles and PMs? Hired more people, I assume.

The "global warming" makes great downhill skiing weather. That packed powder up in the mountains here in the West makes me very happy. :)
30 more years of it? I say, bring it on.


Yeah, good innit - I'm a skier too - in the Alps.
However you tend to find that temperatures fall with height even in a warming world.
I have skied in Colorado and the village height of Vail/Breckenridge is ~10000ft. Tends to be cold enough up there to snow in winter - even in a warming world (0.8C up).
You do know that translates to just around 300ft of average rise in the 0C isotherm?

Ignorance is bliss, especially for certain ideologically and scientifically challenged skiers in the Rockies it seems.
Shootist
1.7 / 5 (11) Dec 14, 2013
"warming woes remain" LOL

As long as "warming" remains a profit center, there will always be "warming woes".


And when "warming" no longer works its political and social magic, there is always the cold.
The Alchemist
1.7 / 5 (6) Dec 14, 2013
Since this is a year of high solar activity, we must ask, where is the additional heat from the Sun going? By any accounts, denier or AGW, at least those who can add, the additional heat should be a player.

Where is it, or where is it going? What is the new effect demanded by LeChatlier's principle for this to come together to make a pretty sum?/ to make sense?
SteveS
3 / 5 (6) Dec 14, 2013
And when "warming" no longer works its political and social magic, there is always the cold.


"One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas."
Freeman Dyson
Shootist
1.4 / 5 (9) Dec 14, 2013
And when "warming" no longer works its political and social magic, there is always the cold.


"One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas."
Freeman Dyson


Finish it, buckwheat, don't leave us hanging, "The polar bears will be fine".
SteveS
3.5 / 5 (6) Dec 14, 2013
And when "warming" no longer works its political and social magic, there is always the cold.


"It's always possible Hansen could turn out to be right, if what he says were obviously wrong, he wouldn't have achieved what he has."
Freeman Dyson

Shootist
2.2 / 5 (10) Dec 14, 2013
#NARRATIVEFAIL: Five Years Ago Today: Al Gore Predicted the North Pole Will Be Ice Free in 5 Years. "Today Cairo had its first snowfall in 100 years."

http://www.thegat...5-years/

Still waiting to grow oranges in Alaska.
Maggnus
3.7 / 5 (10) Dec 14, 2013
Jeezus Shootist, sticking your face back in it I see. Another person who plays a constant game of whack-a-mole re-pasting zombie arguments and relying outdated data and quotes.

Grow up man. Its the same garbage you were spouting a year ago. Or do you still want to discuss the Vikings settlements in Greenland or the possibility of vineyards in Britain?

The worst part is you actually have some intelligent posts elsewhere. What is it about global warming that has your knickers in such a knot?
Maggnus
3.6 / 5 (9) Dec 14, 2013
PS Shootist - Al Gore is a Politian, not a scientist. Does that loosen the knot a wee tad?
Shootist
2.4 / 5 (9) Dec 14, 2013
PS Shootist - Al Gore is a Politian, not a scientist. Does that loosen the knot a wee tad?


The only people in this argument worth worrying about, are the politicians. They are the ones who will take your stuff for their evil ends.
brucie bee
1.7 / 5 (6) Dec 14, 2013
Love climate & it's NATURAL change to cold.
The next big 'financial crash' won't be the same without cold wintery snowy scenes on the unemployment lines. It provides continuity to the crazy Boom-&-Bust Cycle Economists call, 'The Business Cycle' fortunately Economics is just a social science. Not real science.
Maggnus
3.5 / 5 (6) Dec 15, 2013
The only people in this argument worth worrying about, are the politicians. They are the ones who will take your stuff for their evil ends.
Perhaps they will, but that doesn't change the science. And that is what the argument is really about Shootist - the majority of scientists in the world say that global warming is happening, is manmade and needs to be addressed. Denying that because you disagree with one of the politicians who have taken up the challenge of trying to address the need for changes makes no sense.
Egleton
2.4 / 5 (7) Dec 15, 2013
Pity. Trolls used to be amusing. Now they are just boring.
jerryjbrown
1.7 / 5 (6) Dec 15, 2013
So thermal vents would have nothing to do with melting ice???? All the heat that is inside this planet has nothing to do with climate change? And Global warming, when they said the sunspots are at their lowest in over 100 yrs and they predict activity will remain low?

http://www.nbcnew...l-vents/
jerryjbrown
1.6 / 5 (7) Dec 15, 2013
I don't think you can find a person to disagree that mankind pollutes too much (not just the environment, but society, the food, the DNA, et cet) But this very site puts out a lot of science info that leaves far too many questions about the smoking gun that is called manmade climate change. Of course it's a factor, but not the prime factor. http://phys.org/n...ole.html
Shootist
1.7 / 5 (7) Dec 15, 2013
I don't think you can find a person to disagree that mankind pollutes too much (not just the environment, but society, the food, the DNA, et cet) But this very site puts out a lot of science info that leaves far too many questions about the smoking gun that is called manmade climate change. Of course it's a factor, but not the prime factor. http://phys.org/n...ole.html


Manmade climate change? You give mankind too much credit. One large volcano out pollutes mankind in just one go. Add up all the volcanoes and black smokers and white smokers and petroleum seeps and methane clathrates which erupt episodically and mankind is just a gnat in Terra's eye.

Don't get me wrong. Mankind can change the climate significantly. It would just take every fusion bomb in every nation's arsenal to be detonated more or less simultaneously and evenly across the planet's surface to do so.

It must be nerve racking to be frightened so easily.
Maggnus
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 15, 2013
Manmade climate change? You give mankind too much credit.
No, you give too little. You speak of natural events like they have somehow stopped happening. They haven't; all of what you said and more takes place every day. The difference Shootist, and the thing that seem so hell bent on pretending doesn't matter, is all of the extra that humankind is adding. The world was in a near balance with the natural outgassings, albeit we were beginning to move towards a new cooling cycle. It's the human added gasses that are making the difference.

You haven't answered my question. Why global warming Shootist?

It must cause deep confliction to be in such denial.
SteveS
4 / 5 (4) Dec 15, 2013
Manmade climate change? You give mankind too much credit. One large volcano out pollutes mankind in just one go. Add up all the volcanoes and black smokers and white smokers and petroleum seeps and methane clathrates which erupt episodically and mankind is just a gnat in Terra's eye.


"One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas."
Freeman Dyson

Do you know more than Freeman Dyson?

Maggnus
4.2 / 5 (5) Dec 15, 2013
"One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas."
Freeman Dyson

Do you know more than Freeman Dyson?

Dude, having Dyson on my side is like having Feynman on my side. My side wins. -Shootist


Richard Feynman in a chapter called "Conservation of Energy" from "Feynman Lectures" says:
"There is a fact, or if you wish, a law, governing all natural phenomena that are known to date. There is no exception to this law – it is exact so far as we know. The law is called conservation of energy.


There is currently more energy entering the system than is leaving. Seems Feynman disagrees with you too. SO how's "your side" doing?
runrig
4.3 / 5 (6) Dec 15, 2013
Manmade climate change? You give mankind too much credit. One large volcano out pollutes mankind in just one go. Add up all the volcanoes and black smokers and white smokers and petroleum seeps and methane clathrates which erupt episodically and mankind is just a gnat in Terra's eye. …..


Right then – you are aware that volcanoes tend to be short-lived violent affairs.
So logically their CO2 output into the atmosphere if "One large volcano out pollutes mankind in just one go" - then that CO2 would show up as a "spike" on monitors of atmospheric CO2.
Have a look at this graph….
http://www.esrl.n..._mlo.pdf

I don't see any "spikes" other than the annual ones. Do you?
Pinatubo FI happened in June 1991 – Completely invisible as "outpolluting mankind in just one go"
Also:
http://news.disco...0627.htm

I would advise you to get real in your denialism.
aufever
2.3 / 5 (4) Dec 15, 2013
Arctic Sea Ice Extent is Only 240,000 sq km ( 2% ) Below 1981-2010 Mean – and Higher than 1996 and 1998 too!

http://sunshineho...998-too/
Cocoa
3.7 / 5 (3) Dec 15, 2013
So how is the sea ice VOLUME notparker?

Here is a clue.

http://psc.apl.wa...ntV2.png