UN panel's climate report sparks concern

Sep 27, 2013 by Richard Ingham
Activists gather outside the the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on September 27, 2013 in Stockholm.

Scientists, environmentalists and politicians reacted with concern Friday as a UN climate panel warned temperatures could rise by as much as 4.8 degrees Celsius (8.6 degrees Fahrenheit) this century due to man's voracious energy consumption.

"Yet another wake-up call," was how US Secretary of State John Kerry described the report by the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which also underlined the peril of heatwaves, drought and floods and warned sea levels could rise by as much as 82 centimetres (32.8 inches).

"Those who deny the science or choose excuses over action are playing with fire," Kerry said in a statement.

The strongest scientific consensus yet that human activities drove warming since the 1950s, the report said heat-trapping must be urgently curbed to limit further damage to the .

UN chief Christiana Figueres said the document's release in Stockholm was "an alarm clock moment for the world".

"To steer humanity out of the high danger zone, governments must step up immediate climate action" to meet the UN target of 2.0 C (3.6 F) from pre-Industrial Revolution levels, she said. This is the ceiling at which many experts believe the worst climate fallout can be skirted.

Based on computer models of different emissions trajectories, the report's most optimistic scenario projects average warming of 1.0 C (1.8 F) by 2100 over 2000 levels—ranging from 0.3 to 1.7 C (0.5-3.1 F).

Previous research said global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, constantly scaling new highs, must peak around 2020 and then decline sharply for the lowest warming scenario to be possible. The world emits about 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas every year.

The IPCC's worst-case scenario projects average warming this century of 3.7 C (6.7 F)—ranging from 2.6 C (4.7 F) to 4.8 C (8.6 F).

People scream outside the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to demand immediate political action on Climate debate on September 27, 2013 in Stockholm.

"Without very strong cuts in emissions of , we face huge risks from global warming of more than 2.0 C by the end of this century," said British climate economist Nicholas Stern of the report.

Green groups said such levels threatened the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers, would leave millions hungry and exposed to extreme weather events, and risked engulfing entire communities in coastal areas or low-lying small island states.

"If we are to follow what the science says, then we have to stop investing in fossil fuels and increase investment in sustainable, renewable energy," said a statement from seven non-government organisations including WWF, Oxfam, and the International Trade Union Confederation.

"A bleak and hopeless future is not a foregone conclusion, it's a choice," added Greenpeace campaigner Stephanie Tunmore.

The decade ending 2010 had already been the warmest on record, and marked by extreme weather events.

"We ignore these scientific warnings at our own peril," said Andrew Steer, head of the World Resources Institute, a US-based think-tank. "Climate change is here and it's advancing even faster than we realised."

University of Leeds climate professor and report co-author Piers Forster said new data revealed that humankind had been causing 40 percent more warming than was estimated in the IPCC's 2007 report.

"Over much of the world, extreme rainfall will be heavier and occur more often and unless we begin to dramatically change our ways, we could have up to one metre (3.25 feet) and growing rise by 2100," he said.

In a video statement, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the report was "essential" for governments thrashing out an ambitious global deal on curbing greenhouse gas emissions that must be signed by 2015.

"The heat is on. Now we must act," said the UN chief, who will host a summit next September in a bid to bolster commitment.

Explore further: Temperatures to rise 0.3-4.8 C this century, UN panel says

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Scottish Sceptic
1.7 / 5 (18) Sep 27, 2013
Regarding the false use of "denier", as Chairman of the Scottish Climate & Energy Forum I would like to make you aware that last May there was an agreed statement of the sceptic view as follows:

Although there is no single sceptic view, most** sceptics broadly agree with the following:
* Carbon Dioxide (CO2) has been increasing. In 1960 it was 0.032% of the atmosphere, today it is 0.039%.
* There has very probably been warming of average global temperatures in the last 150 years.
* There is a greenhouse effect and CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The best scientific estimate of this effect (for doubling CO2) is about 1C warming.
* People think there are mechanisms that could increase warming further than the direct effect of CO2. This is not supported by the evidence.
* Current estimates of about 0.8 C temperature rise in the past 150 years are very likely too high. [snip]
Full text at scef dot org dot uk
LarryD
4.3 / 5 (6) Sep 27, 2013
Forget about the stats for a moment and just agree that we humans and our machines have some effect on the enviroment. Let's also assume that climate change is one such effect. The question isn't really about by how much but are we WILLING to something about it? On the one hand there are countries that have, say, controls on smoke emission while on the other hand some countries (Asia?) see crop burning as the only quick and inexpensive method for replanting.
I live in a country that has laws for tree felling yet they aren't enforced because there is a big trade for large wooden settee, outside dining areas and houses, just to mention a few.
These people aren't interested in what happens at big conferences.
Don't misunderstand me. I don't have an alernative to offer and I'm not sure one exists. I am just stating facts.
ryggesogn2
1.7 / 5 (18) Sep 27, 2013
I don't have an alernative to offer and I'm not sure one exists.

It's called the free market with limited govts that vigorously protect property rights.
VendicarE
3.8 / 5 (11) Sep 28, 2013
Although there is no single sceptic view, most** sceptics broadly agree with the following:
* Carbon Dioxide (CO2) has been increasing. In 1960 it was 0.032% of the atmosphere, today it is 0.039%.

Your numbers are out of data Tardie Boy. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is now 27 percent since 1960, not your value of 21 percent.

I guess you wanted to keep the .039 from turning into a .040 in order to dishonestly make the change appear smaller than it is, as does your arbitrary selection of 1960 as a starting year.

Industrialization didn't start in 1960, but started in the early 1700's when CO2 levels were somewhat over 40 percent lower than today.

The radiative forcing of CO2 is measured at about 1.8 watts per square meter, and total solare flux is around 1400 watts per square meter, so the increase in heat flux at the earth's surface is around 0.13 percent higher as a result of CO2.

Cont
VendicarE
4.1 / 5 (10) Sep 28, 2013
Cont..

The total flux keeps the Earth's temperature at an average temperature of around 290'K, so the CO2 component adds about 1'F to the earth's surface temperature before water feedback.

Doubling CO2 levels will add at least another 1'F before water vapor amplification.

Surface albedo amplifcation causes even higher temperatures.

Once again, we find that the self professed Skeptic is incapable of applying even the most trivial analysis to his own statements.

If he did so, all of his whining and complaining, and nonsense vanishes in a puff of reason.
VendicarE
4.2 / 5 (10) Sep 28, 2013
"The best scientific estimate of this effect (for doubling CO2) is about 1C warming." - SkepticusRetardo

The IPCC produces the best estimates since it consults with the worlds experts in climate science, rather than know nothing denialists like yourself.

They estimate a change of between 1'C and 4.5'C for a doubling of CO2.

Your claim that the best estimate is 1'C is just Pure dishonesty.

VendicarE
4.2 / 5 (10) Sep 28, 2013
"People think there are mechanisms that could increase warming further than the direct effect of CO2. This is not supported by the evidence." - Skepticus Retardieo

Warmer air has resulted in a retreat of the snowpack in the north and as a result a darkening of areas that were once covered in snow during the winter.

The darker regions absorb more sunlight and warm the air in winter beyond what it would normally be with the addition of CO2 alone.

This not only increases atmospheric temperatures beyond CO2 warming alone, but this positive feedback itself cause less snow to be deposited and hence more warming as a result of it's own action.

We see similar effects in the melting of the North Polar ice cap.

In addition warmer air holds more water, and water is a more powerful Greenhouse gas than CO2. So the increased humidity causes further warming as well, and it too feeds upon itself.

Both of these effects are observed realities,

Your claim of no evidence is a lie.
VendicarE
4 / 5 (9) Sep 28, 2013
"Current estimates of about 0.8 C temperature rise in the past 150 years are very likely too high. " - RetardedScottsman

As back of the envelope calculations performed above indicate, 0.8'C is right in line with IPCC estimates once the observed increase in global humidity, ice and slow reductions, and solar feedbacks and factors are added in.

Do you eat your own dung? Scottsman.

VendicarE
4 / 5 (9) Sep 28, 2013
"It's called the free market" - RyggTard

And is is the favored by those like RyggTard since it legalizes child prostitution.
VENDItardE
1 / 5 (15) Sep 28, 2013
as always, total and absolute BS, both the article and VendicarE.
obama_socks
1.3 / 5 (14) Sep 28, 2013
and VendicarE's acolyte:

BAKOON

3.7 / 5 (3)
19 hours ago
And don't you know yet that your following in the footsteps of such as BAKOON
Idiot-shit

No, no, quite the opposite. I am but filth compared to Vendicar Decarian. He is legend. Truly a troll qua troll.

Read more at: http://phys.org/n...html#jCp
LarryD
5 / 5 (3) Sep 28, 2013
VendicarE,

"Current estimates of about 0.8 C temperature rise in the past 150 years are very likely too high. " - RetardedScottsman

As back of the envelope calculations performed above indicate, 0.8'C is right in line with IPCC estimates once the observed increase in global humidity....


As a layman I'm interested in your 'back of the envelope calculations performed above...' or can you tell me where I might find them, please.
But in the end all this discussion won't matter one little bit so quit the talk and come up with a solution to the 'man made' polution and give to those who have the power to act...that is, if one of you guys has a solution!
Can we back track and find out how much of these discussions contribute to polution;Artificial satellites, rocket conveyance, manufacture of said products, mining for the materials...naa let's stick with blaming the aircraft that take us on holiday or....

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