Hurricanes could increase over western Europe as climate warms

Jul 15, 2013

Damaging hurricanes are familiar along the North American east coast but are relatively rare in western Europe. That could change as Earth's climate warms over the next century, according to a new study. Western European coastal areas do occasionally experience hurricane force storms in the current climate, but these occur mainly in winter and are formed not as tropical cyclones but by the midlatitude atmospheric baroclinic instability, which is driven by the north-south atmospheric temperature gradient.

Currently, most hurricanes begin in the western tropical Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures often rise above the threshold needed for formation of cyclones; the eastern tropical Atlantic is not currently warm enough to generate cyclones.

However, using a high-resolution , Haarsma et al. show that as in the Atlantic Ocean rise over the next century, the tropical cyclone breeding ground will extend northward and eastward. This will lead to the formation of more hurricanes that are on a path to hit western Europe. Although they will make a transition from a tropical to a hybrid storm, like Sandy, they will arrive there with exceptional strength.

The authors' simulations indicate that the number of potentially damaging hurricanes during the August through October season over western Europe could increase more than fourfold by the end of the century.

Explore further: Arctic sea ice helps remove CO2 from the atmosphere

More information: More hurricanes to hit western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/grl.50360, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50360/abstract

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User comments : 5

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cantdrive85
1.4 / 5 (20) Jul 15, 2013
However, using a high-resolution global climate model, Haarsma et al. show that as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean rise over the next century,

The same of which has failed every real test and has been unsuccessful in making any real predictions, but somehow it should apply a 100 years from now... GIGO!
runrig
4.4 / 5 (14) Jul 15, 2013
However, using a high-resolution global climate model, Haarsma et al. show that as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean rise over the next century,

The same of which has failed every real test and has been unsuccessful in making any real predictions, but somehow it should apply a 100 years from now... GIGO!


Yes they have haven't they?

Well in your own mythical world obviously.

http://thinkprogr...ccurate/

Cue another round of myth and denial/ vs "consensus" science.
Sorry, but that's the way the world works.
Get over it.
deepsand
3.8 / 5 (13) Jul 16, 2013
cantdrive is a fecund source of garbage.
antigoracle
1.3 / 5 (12) Jul 22, 2013
"consensus" science.

Yes climate "science" gives new meaning to CONsensus.
That's only the way the world works for the blind and ignorant AGW Alarmist cult.

deepsand
3.5 / 5 (8) Jul 27, 2013
"consensus" science.

Yes climate "science" gives new meaning to CONsensus.
That's only the way the world works for the blind and ignorant AGW Alarmist cult.

You give new meaning to emptyheadedness.