Combining global climate models for more accurate forecasting

Jul 12, 2013
Combining global climate models for more accurate forecasting
Credit: Shutterstock

The EU-funded ENSEMBLES ('Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts') project has made a significant contribution towards achieving better climate risk forecasts. By combining different global climate models and by generating samples of the future state of the earth system, scientists should have a better idea of what our climate will be like in five, ten or even two decades from now.

Assessing what our will be like in the future has always been a major challenge, due to the inherent complexity and uncertainty of our planet's . The extent and effect of natural climate variability and man's impact on the environment are very difficult to predict. In fact, recent research suggested that the chances are high that our planet is being hit by a global warming between 1.4 and 3 degree Celsius by 2050.

Because it is difficult to project far-off future emissions and other human factors that influence climate, scientists have turned to a range of scenarios using various assumptions about future economic, social, technological, and environmental conditions. The ENSEMBLES project sought to build on this concept by integrating, in a systematic and comprehensive manner, a range of different climate-measuring models. The main objective of the project was to utilise and combine current technology to give scientists the tools necessary to make more accurate forecasts.

This new 'ensemble' climate can be used across a range of timescales and geographies, in order to construct more accurate scenarios of future climate change. It has been extensively validated; probability forecasts made with the model system were thoroughly checked against existing data.

From the beginning of the project, emphasis was placed on changes in - for example the severity and frequency of , drought, and flooding - and the effects of high-impact but low-probability events such as a shutdown of warm currents in the North Atlantic.

Initial results from the project show how the impacts resulting from climate change will affect all the systems and sectors studied. Indeed, it is expected that the project, which involved 66 institutions from 19 countries, mainly from Europe, will likely have major implications for a wide range of applications including agriculture, health, energy and water resources.

In fact, any of the new results gleaned from the project reinforce the conclusions of earlier studies of climate change projections and impacts. What is new about the ENSEMBLES' results, however, is that they describe in far greater detail how the climate is expected to change under standard scenarios of future emissions. They also include, for the first time, multi-model climate projections for a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario leading to emissions and temperature stabilisation in line with European policy aims.

Added value also comes from the use of improved models, developing new and better techniques to analyse and disseminate projections and their uncertainties, and demonstrating how this information can be applied in policy-relevant impact assessments.

Another impact of the project is the fact that it has brought together an impressive variety of experts from diverse disciplines and sectors. The ENSEMBLES has therefore supported efforts to build a dynamic European Research Area.

Explore further: Pilot plant for the removal of extreme gas charges from deep waters installed

More information: ENSEMBLES www.ensembles-eu.org/

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User comments : 7

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mememine69
1.7 / 5 (22) Jul 12, 2013
Prove us wrong news editor,

Science has NEVER agreed on climate change being anything more than a "could" be crisis and have NEVER said in 28 years that their crisis "will" happen like they say comet hits will. Find us one scientist that has ever said this comet hit of an emergency is "eventual" or "inevitable" like a real crisis would be and if science really had agreed it "will" be a crisis they would have said so and ended this costly debate to save the planet.

And get up to date:
*Occupywallstreet now does not even mention CO2 in its list
of demands because of the bank-funded and corporate run carbon trading stock
markets ruled by politicians.
*Canada killed Y2Kyoto with a freely elected climate change
denying prime minister and nobody cared, especially the millions of scientists
warning us of unstoppable warming (a comet hit).
*Julian Assange is of course a climate change denier.
*Obama had not mentioned the crisis in two State of the
Unions addresses.
deatopmg
1.4 / 5 (20) Jul 12, 2013
Here is plot of 73 official, IPCC sanctioned models 1979 to 2025, and the average compared to satellite and radiosonde evidence, 1979 to 2012: http://www.drroys...ans1.png

Where is there greater accuracy of the average? Everyone of the 73 models suck at predicting future temperatures, the average sucks, too. The whole global warming house of cards is built on faulty models, every single one of them, or the average.

The problem with the models along with the dogma of the warmists is that CO2 is set as the driver of the warming from the LIA, it can't be anything else. The the overwhelming evidence, not models, shows that this is highly unlikely.

It's the sun stupid! (What happens to the local temperature when there is a solar eclipse? Don't know? Don't guess, go find out!)
VendicarE
4.5 / 5 (15) Jul 13, 2013
Actually Deatopmg's radiosonde data is a lie.

NOAA shows it as follows...

http://www.skepti...ger2.gif

deepsand
3.3 / 5 (16) Jul 16, 2013
me_me_mine and DEA continue to struggle with the rudiments of Science and Logic.
Neinsense99
1 / 5 (5) Aug 30, 2013
me_me_mine and DEA continue to struggle with the rudiments of Science and Logic.

Struggle implies at least an attempt. You may wish to reconsider.
antigoracle
1 / 5 (8) Aug 30, 2013
me_me_mine and DEA continue to struggle with the rudiments of Science and Logic.

And an idiot like you, who is too stupid to even realize you know nothing, obviously pretends you are better.
Neinsense99
2 / 5 (8) Aug 30, 2013
me_me_mine and DEA continue to struggle with the rudiments of Science and Logic.

And an idiot like you, who is too stupid to even realize you know nothing, obviously pretends you are better.

Friends don't let friends type bunk.

If you know the author of the above, and care for their reputation and wellness, hold on to those keys. Better yet, the entire keyboard. Not only can posting bunk result in severe social penalties if caught, every year, bunk typers kills thousands of intellectual discussions and injure the dignity of thousands more, most often their own!

Don't hesitate to seek professional help. Prolonged posting of bunk can lead to troll syndrome, a socially fatal condition, and early intervention is key.

Warning: graphic imagery of troll syndrome may be disturbingly. http://static.tec...ge-2.png

The good news is that it is curable, and there is hope. :)

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