Analysis: 'Egypt's revolution was regime exchange, not regime change'

Jul 01, 2013

A two-and-a-half hour long speech last week by the Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi failed to stop Egyptians from taking to the streets. Egyptian academic Dr Solava Ibrahim, from The University of Manchester, discusses the latest crisis to afflict the country and why calls for a early presidential elections are getting louder. A practising Moslem, she is a lecturer in International development.

A failed regime

"The Mohamed Morsi regime is failing. The three key demands of the 2011 January 'revolution' in Egypt of 'bread, freedom and social justice'- have not come about. In fact, the country has moved further away from achieving these goals.

"The situation is dire: poverty has increased from 21.6% in 2008/9 to 25.2% in 2010/2011, political activists are arbitrarily arrested, and unemployment among 20-24 year-olds has reached a huge 42.7%. Power cuts, queues at petrol stations, shrinking foreign reserves, failed IMF talks, growing mistrust by investors in the Egyptian economy and increased sales tax all illustrate Egypt's deepening .

"There is also unprecedented of Egyptian society: hate speeches by Salafi leaders as well as calls for Jihad in Syria are inciting violence against Copts and Shiites. The result is growing sectarian violence: four Shiite leaders were killed in June 2013 and the Coptic cathedral was attacked in April 2013. Police brutality, the deteriorating security in many cities and escalating violence also show how the new regime is failing to ensure stability.

What revolution?

"But actually, and more fundamentally, Egypt never had a revolution. Yes, Egyptians succeeded in overthrowing the government, but, they did not bring in a new system; instead they continue the old one. It was regime exchange rather than regime change. No profound social, political or have been carried out.

"And since the new regime has come to power, state institutions are increasingly being infiltrated by the forces of political Islam, especially Muslim Brotherhood loyalists, regardless of their experience and expertise.

"But Morsi, it seems, can't win. His former supporters, the Islamists and the Revolutionary forces, have openly criticized him for being either too lenient in implementing Islamic law or being too repressive."

These protests are different

"Previously, the police has confronted protestors and acted as a 'guardian' of the regime. But because they sided with Mubarak– and were punished for it - they have declared their neutrality.

"Also importantly, the current regime does not have clear backing from the armed forces: recently the head of the armed forces called for the government and opposition forces to start talks immediately to reach consensus on urgent political reforms.

"Although the current mobilisation is still mainly in the urban centres and among the youth, the rural population as well as older generations - are no longer distant from the rapidly developing Egyptian political scene. Many are participating in the protests.

"The cards seem to be stacking up against Morsi and Egypt is on a knife edge. All Egyptians will wait, with baited breath, to see what happens next and if our country can be brought back from the brink."

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TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2013
Egypt is in the thrall of an obsolete religionist culture which forces women to do little else but bear and raise children. The result is chronic and critical overpopulation. This is the case throughout the middle east.

Any regime in power finds that it HAS to be repressive and violent in order to maintain order. They will inevitably be selective in their application of this repression, which only tells us who will be rioting at any given point in time.

Mubarak had no choice and neither does the muslim brotherhood. And for that matter neither did HITLER. The only solution to the damage done by such cultures is a drastic reduction in populations.

Syria - est 100,000 dead.

We can expect similar such forced depop in palestine. The only reason it is not happening in pakistan is because al qaida and the taliban are busy gathering up the most contentious troublemakers and sending them westward and into coalition guns.

Enemy death toll in afghanistan UNAVAILABLE.
antialias_physorg
3.7 / 5 (3) Jul 01, 2013
Mubarak had no choice and neither does the muslim brotherhood.

And if you remember: Mubarak (whatever else he may have been) was against islamic fundamentalism (to the point that they tried to have him assassinated a number of times)...and that Egyptian mores were quit liberal -if not the most liberal- for the region.

Mursi won't last long.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2013
Mubarak had no choice and neither does the muslim brotherhood.

And if you remember: Mubarak (whatever else he may have been) was against islamic fundamentalism (to the point that they tried to have him assassinated a number of times)...and that Egyptian mores were quit liberal -if not the most liberal- for the region.

Mursi won't last long.
Yeah thats what they said about al-Assad.

What, no righteous indignation over my insinuation that hitlers rise to power and subsequent actions were primarily due to religion-fueled overpopulation? Or that the world wars were more than anything exercises in applied demographic engineering?

Of course they were. The Benefits of Constructive wars are irresistable. And the possibility of spontaneous wars is absolutely unacceptable.
antialias_physorg
3 / 5 (2) Jul 01, 2013
What, no righteous indignation over my insinuation that hitlers rise to power and subsequent actions were primarily due to religion-fueled overpopulation?

No indignation - because that's on the level of cold fusion or neutron sun arguments...patently silly.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2013
No, 2 are true and 1 is nonsense. AA thinks that just because wars are icky, people wouldnt use them to create rather than destroy, even though the benefits of doing so are so patently obvious. AA is lacking a key concept - Inevitability.

IF war is inevitable THEN you must be the one to decide where, when, and how it starts. But the real Advantages come from being able to predetermine just how it will turn out.

This is not so difficult when you are able to command both sides. Oraclar priests at delphi determined who fought with and against whom in greece and so engineered all outcomes.

Aristotle schooled both alexander and the satrap Artabazus who later became the chief advisor t the persian king darius. They orchestrated alexanders campaign to depopulate the region and unite it.

The brits divided all the nations of the post-ottoman middle east into artificial countries to ensure that none could wage war. They constructed the baath party AND israel.

So much more. EVERY WAR.
TheGhostofOtto1923
1 / 5 (1) Jul 01, 2013
Solomon spent his life amassing great wealth and knowledge but realized that he could not guarantee that they would outlast him.

"17 ...All of it is meaningless, a chasing after the wind. 18 I hated all the things I had toiled for under the sun, because I must leave them to the one who comes after me. 19 And who knows whether that person will be wise or foolish?" ecc2

-But then the heavenly chorus chimes in and gives him the Formula for establishing an enduring kingdom over all the earth:

"1 There is a Time for everything,
and a season for every activity under the heavens:" ecc3

-A Proper time, is what solomon was saying. Because there are many things in the human condition that, like the seasons, are inevitable.

"a Time to plant and a time to uproot"
-A fool who fails to plant in the spring will have no food for the winter.

" a Time for war and a time for peace."

"11 He has made everything beautiful in its time."

-A Proper Time for everything under the Sun.

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