Reaching ambitious greenhouse gas concentration goals

Mar 18, 2013
Reaching Ambitious Greenhouse Gas Concentration Goals
While technology improvements can reduce the cost of reaching the ambitious greenhouse gas concentration goals set by the international community, this study shows they are not essential to meet those goals.

Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory found that even though it is technically possible to reach ambitious goals to limit greenhouse gas concentrations by the end of the 21st century, the combined effects of limitations in technology availability and uneven global participation to curb emissions will affect costs. In addition, if the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters do not take any action to reduce emissions by the end of the century, those ambitious goals are impossible to reach no matter how much energy technologies improve.

"Our findings contrast with many previous studies that found bioenergy-carbon capture and storage technologies (BECCS) to be essential to reach ambitious concentration goals," said Dr. James Edmonds, Battelle Fellow and researcher at PNNL, working at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in Maryland. "This study shows that while not essential, BECCS could help to substantially reduce the cost of achieving ambitious greenhouse goals."

The international policy community has set ambitious goals to limit greenhouse gas concentrations. Achieving these goals would require dramatic changes to the global energy system. But what are the choices, and what is the impact if implementation is limited? The research presented in this paper explored the role of technology and terrestrial Earth systems, as well as interactions between energy technology, land, and policy to illuminate more clearly the range of options available and cost consequences.

A PNNL research team led by Edmonds and working at JGCRI used the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to examine in which human-caused greenhouse gas emissions may be constrained to limit year 2100 atmospheric to 450 ppm CO2-e (see sidebar, What is CO2-e?). GCAM, developed at PNNL with support from the U.S. Department of Energy, is an integrated assessment model that links economic, energy, land-use and climate systems to show the effects of global change. Using alternative assumptions about technology performance and possible international climate policy decisions, the team investigated the role of technology performance, terrestrial Earth systems, and policy decisions to mitigate .

They found that while bioenergy and carbon capture and may help manage the cost, they are not essential to reaching ambitious climate change goals. Several additional important findings include:

  • The ability to sequester carbon in forests and soils is potentially large and comparable in magnitude with amounts of carbon removed from industrial processes for geologic storage. Land-use systems can be an important component of a larger strategy to limit climate change.
  • Energy technology performance improvements lowered the economic cost of reaching ambitious climate goals, as did early participation by all nations. The combined effects of technology use and policy decisions had the potential to change costs substantially.
  • If large-emitter regions failed to reduce emissions at all during the 21st century, were impossible regardless of how good energy technologies became.

Researchers are conducting further studies to understand the interactions between energy, land and water.

Explore further: CO2 emissions set to reach new 40 billion ton record high in 2014

More information: Edmonds, J. et al. 2013. Can Radiative Forcing Be Limited to 2.6 Wm-2 Without Negative Emissions from Bioenergy AND CO2 Capture and Storage? Climatic Change. DOI:10.1007/s10584-012-0678-z.

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

All the carbon counts

May 28, 2009

Cutting down forests for agriculture vents excess carbon dioxide into the air just as industrial activities and the burning of fossil fuels do. But whether policies to stabilize greenhouse gases in the atmosphere ...

Breaking down the impact of greenhouse gases

Oct 23, 2012

It's called the global warming potential or GWP for short and it bundles together the importance of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases on future climate change.  Researchers from DOE's Pacific ...

Switchgrass as bioenergy feedstock

Dec 09, 2011

Scientists examined current knowledge about the potential contributions of bioenergy production from switchgrass to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Their findings, published in GCB Bioenergy, conclude that the use of swi ...

Recommended for you

World greenhouse emissions threaten warming goal

11 hours ago

Emissions of greenhouse gases are rising so fast that within one generation the world will have used up its margin of safety for limiting global warming to 2°C (3.6°F), an international team of scientists ...

Tens of thousands join London climate march

11 hours ago

Tens of thousands of people in London joined a global day of protest Sunday to demand action on climate change, among them British actress Emma Thompson who said the challenge to save the planet was like ...

UN summit to test commitment to climate fund

12 hours ago

A global fund created to spearhead climate change financing faces a key test at a UN summit this week when it looks to the leaders of the industrialised world to stump up billions of dollars to fill its underflowing ...

User comments : 0