Hurricane forecast team reviews influencing factors for 2013 Atlantic season

Dec 10, 2012

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University today released its initial outlook for the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season. For its December forecast only, the team relies on probabilities of key factors influencing the hurricane season rather than issuing a numerical forecast for the number of storms in this initial outlook.

The team will release the first forecast with predictions for the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes expected for the Atlantic basin on April 10.

"We have been in an active era for since 1995, and we expect positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong (THC) conditions will continue," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast. "One of the big challenges for 2013 is whether or not will develop for the 2013 . Since El Nino never fully developed in 2012, and we have since returned to neutral conditions, there is the possibility that an El Nino event will develop next year."

The team predicts four scenarios:

  • THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2013 and no El Nino event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 20% chance.
  • THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Nino develops (NTC ~ 140) – 40% chance.
  • THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Nino (NTC ~ 75) – 35% chance.
  • THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Nino (NTC ~ 40) – 5% chance.

Explore further: New, tighter timeline confirms ancient volcanism aligned with dinosaurs' extinction

More information: For the full forecast, go to hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

US forecasters see drop in 2012 Atlantic hurricanes

Apr 04, 2012

The number of 2012 Atlantic hurricanes will be below average this season due to a cooling of tropical waters and the potential development of El Nino conditions, US forecasters said Wednesday.

El Nino may calm 2006 hurricane season

Sep 07, 2006

Hurricane forecasters say a weather phenomenon called El Nino may make the rest of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quieter than predicted.

Experts predict quieter Atlantic hurricane season

Aug 04, 2009

Weather experts on Wednesday reduced the number of projected hurricanes in the north Atlantic this season to four, two of them major hurricanes with winds above 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour.

Forecasters say El Nino may be developing

Jun 08, 2009

(AP) -- A new El Nino could be approaching. Sea-surface temperatures have been warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, suggesting the potential for the development of the El Nino climate phenomenon this summer, according ...

Recommended for you

Improving forecasts for rain-on-snow flooding

15 hours ago

Many of the worst West Coast winter floods pack a double punch. Heavy rains and melting snow wash down the mountains together to breach riverbanks, wash out roads and flood buildings.

The Greenland Ice Sheet: Now in HD

16 hours ago

The Greenland Ice Sheet is ready for its close-up. The highest-resolution satellite images ever taken of that region are making their debut. And while each individual pixel represents only one moment in time, ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.