Tropical Indo-Pacific climate shifts to a more El Nino-like state, research finds

Nov 14, 2012
This shows a convection over the tropical Pacific. Credit: Image courtesy Yuji Kashino, RIGC/JAMSTEC

Climate models predict a slowdown of the Walker circulation with global warming. Atmospheric models, however, have failed to reproduce the slowdown already observed over the last 60 years, casting doubt on their ability to simulate slow climate change. Now a study published in this week's issue of Nature has succeeded in simulating the slowdown and shows that changes in the sea surface temperature pattern across the Indo-Pacific are the cause.

The Walker circulation determines much of the tropical Indo-Pacific and has a global impact as seen in the floods and droughts spawned by the El Niño-. Meteorological observations over the last 60 years show this has slowed: the trade winds have weakened and rainfall has shifted eastward toward the central Pacific.

The immediate cause of this slowdown has puzzled . They could not reproduce it in their atmospheric models, questioning the ability of to simulate gradual climate change.

A breakthrough is now reported in a study spearheaded by Hiroki Tokinaga, associate researcher at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, and published in the November 15, 2012, issue of Nature.

At the root of the models' failure, Tokinaga suspected, was the lack of precise data used to drive the models. Slight differences in this temperature across the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean can greatly affect wind and rainfall.

Over the 60-year period the methods used to measure have evolved enormously. Until satellites came along in the 1980s, such measures were taken by ships. This makes it difficult to have one continuous, unbiased record that goes back for so long.

Tokinaga, who is an expert in understanding old, archived data sets and at correcting their biases, found two measures that have been taken by ships over the whole period: the bucket technique, in which the temperature is taken of sea water scooped up in a bucket lowered from a ship, and night time marine air temperature.

"Removing observational biases from the measurements was still challenging, but we saw that these quite different ways of measuring temperature turned out to agree very well over the 60-year span from 1950 – 2009, and were supported by subsurface ocean temperature observations," explains Tokinaga. "To our surprise both measures showed that the surface temperature across the Indo-Pacific did not rise evenly with global warming, but that the east-west temperature contrast has actually decreased by 0.3-0.4°C, similar to what happens during an El Niño."

Using this unbiased, reconstructed surface temperature data set in four widely used , the scientists were able to reproduce quite closely the observed patterns of climate change seen over the 60-year period in the tropical Indo-Pacific and the slowdown of the Walker circulation.

"Our experiments show that the main driver of the change in the Walker circulation is the gradual change that has taken place in the surface temperature pattern toward a more El Niño-like state. We don't have enough data yet to say to what degree the slowdown over the last 60 years is due to a rise in man-made greenhouse gases or to natural cycles in the climate," explains Tokinaga.

"Short-term fluctuations in the strength of the Walker circulation happen every few years: during La Niña the circulation strengthens, during El Niño it weakens," says co-author Shang-Ping Xie, meteorology professor at the International Pacific Research Center. "The Walker circulation affects tropical convection, and the global impacts of a temporary slowdown during an El Niño are well known, resulting in extreme floods or droughts in North America and other regions of the world. How the gradual slowdown observed in this study impacts global climate still needs to be investigated."

Explore further: Strong quake hits east Indonesia; no tsunami threat

More information: H. Tokinaga, S.-P. Xie, Clara Deser, Yu Kosaka, Yuko Okumura: Slowdown of the Walker Circulation Driven by Tropical Indo-Pacific Warming, Nature, November 15, 2012.

Related Stories

Forecasters say El Nino may be developing

Jun 08, 2009

(AP) -- A new El Nino could be approaching. Sea-surface temperatures have been warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, suggesting the potential for the development of the El Nino climate phenomenon this summer, according ...

Ocean height indicator of climate

Oct 07, 2005

U.S. and Canadian authors say an index of sea surface heights gathered by satellites could be a useful indicator of long-term climate cycles.

Climate change may alter natural climate cycles of Pacific

Oct 17, 2010

While it's still hotly debated among scientists whether climate change causes a shift from the traditional form of El Nino to one known as El Nino Modoki, online in the journal Nature Geoscience, scientists now say that E ...

La Nina caused global sea level drop

Oct 29, 2012

The 2011 La Niña was so strong that it caused global mean sea level to drop by 5 millimeters (0.2 inches), a new study shows. Since the early 1990s, sea level has been rising by about 3 millimeters (0.1 inches) per year, ...

Recommended for you

Strong quake hits east Indonesia; no tsunami threat

19 hours ago

A strong earthquake struck off the coast of eastern Indonesia on Sunday evening, but there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage, and authorities said there was no threat of a tsunami.

Scientists make strides in tsunami warning since 2004

Dec 19, 2014

The 2004 tsunami led to greater global cooperation and improved techniques for detecting waves that could reach faraway shores, even though scientists still cannot predict when an earthquake will strike.

Trade winds ventilate the tropical oceans

Dec 19, 2014

Long-term observations indicate that the oxygen minimum zones in the tropical oceans have expanded in recent decades. The reason is still unknown. Now scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research ...

User comments : 0

Please sign in to add a comment. Registration is free, and takes less than a minute. Read more

Click here to reset your password.
Sign in to get notified via email when new comments are made.