Models for evacuation procedures in big cities after massive earthquakes

Nov 26, 2012
Models for evacuation procedures in big cities after massive earthquakes
Risk of fire and spatiotemporal distribution of stranded people after the earthquake.

Tokyo Tech's Toshihiro Osaragi and colleagues report on models for evacuation procedures in big cities after massive earthquakes based on the behavior of people in Tokyo after the Tohoku-Pacific Ocean Earthquake on 11 March 2011. The details are also described in the November issue of Tokyo Institute of Technology Bulletin: http://www.titech.ac.jp/bulletin/index.html

The - Earthquake occurred on 11 May 2011. On this day all rail services in the Tokyo Metropolitan area were paralyzed amid the unprecedented confusion that followed the tremor.

Thousands people were unable to contact families and friends, and in a state of uneasiness, many decided to return home on foot. Main roads were heavily congested with both cars and people, a state which severely obstructed the movement of emergency vehicles.

Here, Toshihiro Osaragi at Tokyo Institute of Technology describes the construction of several models that describe decision-making and behavior of individuals attempting to reach home on foot in the wake of a .

He has simulated the movement of individuals who have decided to return home on foot, and demonstrates the spatiotemporal distribution of those who might be exposed to hazardous city fires on their way home in the aftermath of a , which has been predicted to occur in the Tokyo in near future.

Osaragi research underscores the importance of considering pedestrian flow under such extreme scenarios in order to establish emergency evacuation procedures. "Using the model proposed, we can assess not only the potential number of stranded individuals, but also their detailed attributes," says Osaragi. "Such information would undoubtedly prove helpful in actual planning for immediate post-disaster mitigation."

Explore further: Tokyo prepares for the 'Big One'

More information: Osaragi, T. Modeling a spatiotemporal distribution of stranded people returning home on foot in the aftermath of a large-scale earthquake, Natural Hazards, Springer, (2012). DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0175-8

add to favorites email to friend print save as pdf

Related Stories

Geological evidence for past earthquakes in Tokyo region

Jan 31, 2012

In 1923, a magnitude 7.9 earthquake devastated the Tokyo area, resulting in more than 100,000 deaths. About 200 years earlier, in 1703, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake struck the same region, causing more than 10,000 deaths.

Tokyo mega-quake 'would kill over 9,000'

Apr 18, 2012

More than 9,600 people would die with nearly 150,000 injured if a mega-quake struck Tokyo, a disaster that would also level large parts of the Japanese capital, a government projection said Wednesday.

Tokyo prepares for the 'Big One'

Oct 25, 2012

Seen from atop the towering Tokyo Sky Tree, the patchwork of narrow alleyways and ramshackle houses that make up Tokyo's Sumida district is a picturesque throwback to the Japan of yesteryear.

Japan's Hamaoka atomic plant to build huge seawall

Jul 22, 2011

Chubu Electric said Friday it will build an 18-metre (60 foot) anti-tsunami seawall to protect its ageing Hamaoka nuclear plant located near a faultline in a region seen as vulnerable to earthquakes.

Japan experts warn of future risk of giant tsunami

Apr 01, 2012

(AP) -- Much of Japan's Pacific coast could be inundated by a tsunami more than 34 meters (112 feet) high if a powerful earthquake hits offshore, according to revised estimates by a government panel.

Recommended for you

Alaska volcano shoots ash 15,000 feet into the air

15 hours ago

(AP)—One of Alaska's most restless volcanoes has shot an ash cloud 15,000 feet into the air in an ongoing eruption that has drawn attention from a nearby community but isn't expected to threaten air traffic.

NASA sees Cyclone Mahasen hit Bangladesh

May 17, 2013

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite known as TRMM measured Cyclone Mahasen's rainfall rates from space as it made landfall on May 16. Mahasen has since dissipated over eastern India.

Rapid climate change ruled out ice age trees

May 17, 2013

Short, sharp fluctuations in the Earth's climate throughout the last ice age may have stopped trees from getting a foothold in Europe and northern Asia, scientists say.

Earth's iron core is surprisingly weak, researchers say

May 17, 2013

The massive ball of iron sitting at the center of Earth is not quite as "rock-solid" as has been thought, say two Stanford mineral physicists. By conducting experiments that simulate the immense pressures deep in the planet's ...

User comments : 0

More news stories

Galaxy's Ring of Fire

Johnny Cash may have preferred this galaxy's burning ring of fire to the one he sang about falling into in his popular song. The "starburst ring" seen at center in red and yellow hues is not the product of ...

Alaska volcano shoots ash 15,000 feet into the air

(AP)—One of Alaska's most restless volcanoes has shot an ash cloud 15,000 feet into the air in an ongoing eruption that has drawn attention from a nearby community but isn't expected to threaten air traffic.

Chinese, Indian airlines face EU pollution fines

Eight Chinese and two Indian airlines face fines of up to several million euros for not paying for their greenhouse gas emissions during flights within the bloc, the European Commission said on Friday.

US seizes Bitcoin operator accounts

US authorities seized the accounts of a Bitcoin digital currency exchange operator, claiming it was functioning as an "unlicensed money service business," court documents showed Friday.

Morocco to harness the wind in energy hunt

Morocco is ploughing ahead with a programme to boost wind energy production, particularly in the southern Tarfaya region, where Africa's largest wind farm is set to open in 2014.